Red Bull set clear time gain target for Roglic ahead of crucial Vuelta time trial

The Slovenian starts the 32.1 kilometre test from El Puerto de Santa María to Jerez de la Frontera 2:10 behind Mas, but Red Bull believe a significant part of that deficit could disappear against the clock.

“If you look at historically how much Enric has lost to Primož, it could be a little more,” Red Bull performance manager Patxi Vila told MARCA.

“We are counting on somewhere between one minute and one minute and a half.”

At the upper end of that estimate, Mas would leave Jerez with just 40 seconds in hand and the battle for the red jersey would be thrown wide open before the final mountain stages.

For Roglič, it is the terrain he has been waiting for.

The four time Vuelta winner has been unable to match Mas on several of the key climbs so far, but the time trial has long been one of his biggest weapons. Roglič won Olympic gold in the discipline in Tokyo in 2021 and has repeatedly taken substantial time from Mas against the clock.

Their previous Vuelta meetings underline the scale of the opportunity.

Movistar’s own calculations are slightly more cautious.

“If Roglič rides his maximum time trial and Enric rides his maximum time trial, we should be looking at a loss of between 50 seconds and one minute and 20 seconds,” performance coach Iván Velasco told MARCA.

That scenario would still leave Mas in red, but Red Bull see the potential for a bigger swing.

Vila also stressed that calculations this late in a Grand Tour can only go so far.

“All calculations in a Grand Tour, on stage 18 and after the heat we have experienced, are speculation,” he said.

Three weeks of racing, accumulated fatigue and the extreme temperatures endured during this Vuelta make Thursday difficult to predict purely on historical numbers.

Red Bull’s approach is therefore straightforward. “We have to ride a time trial that is not very good, but excellent,” Vila said.

The stakes are equally straightforward. “A podium means little compared to another victory. We are here to win. We want the fifth.”

Roglič already shares the record of four Vuelta victories with Roberto Heras and another overall win would take him clear on his own.

Jerez will not decide the Vuelta on its own.

Peñas Blancas, the Collado del Alguacil and the final stages around Granada still offer Roglič further chances to take time.

That means he does not need to erase the full 2:10 on Thursday. The main objective is to get close enough to put Mas under pressure again in the mountains.

If Roglič takes around a minute, the gap becomes manageable. If he gets closer to Red Bull’s estimate of 1:30, the race could look very different heading into the final days.

Movistar expect Mas to lose between 50 seconds and 1:20. Red Bull believe Roglič can take up to 1:30.

Now Roglič has to deliver it on the road.