The 2027 Tour de France may not suit Vingegaard but it could be exactly what he needs

For much of Jonas Vingegaard's career, the Tour de France has dictated almost everything. His race programme, his training camps and the months spent away from his family were all organised around the pursuit of the yellow jersey. It was a formula that delivered two Tour victories, but by 2025, it had also pushed him perilously close to retirement.

A year later, Vingegaard was a noticeably happier cyclist. He had won the Giro d'Italia, completed his collection of Grand Tour victories and rediscovered some of the enjoyment that had been missing from his career.

The irony of Thursday's Tour route presentation is that a parcours seemingly designed to favour Remco Evenepoel over Tadej Pogačar might give Vingegaard the perfect excuse to continue down that path.

Because if there was ever a Tour that did not justify sacrificing an entire season, the 2027 edition might be it.

At first glance, there is precious little in the 2027 route to excite Vingegaard. The 71 kilometres of individual time trialling are the most since 2012, with two largely flat tests of 38km and 33km on stages 7 and 16. The opening week is also full of pitfalls, possible crosswinds and Classics-style racing that does not suit him. 

The Dane is no stranger to producing extraordinary performances against the clock. His demolition of Pogačar in the 2023 time trial to Combloux, where he gained 1:38 in just 22.4km, remains one of the most remarkable rides in recent Tour history.

But Combloux was a different proposition altogether. That course featured technical roads and sustained climbing, terrain ideally suited to Vingegaard's strengths. On the flat, he cannot consistently match the raw speed of Evenepoel, while Pogačar has also generally demonstrated a higher level in the discipline.

There are mountains in the 2027 Tour where Vingegaard could potentially pull back time, of course. The Grand Colombier, Les Saisies and Col du Portet will all provide opportunities for Vingegaard to make his mark. But with only three summit finishes, compared with five in 2026, those opportunities are limited.

And recovering time against Pogačar is a rather different challenge from recovering it against anybody else.

For Vingegaard, the challenge is therefore twofold. He must limit his losses against the clock while hoping to rediscover a climbing advantage over a rider who has largely had the upper hand in recent seasons.

It hardly makes for a compelling argument to organise another twelve months of his life exclusively around winning the Tour.

Visma | Lease a Bike are still weighing the merits of the Giro-Tour double Vingegaard attempted in 2026.

The decision to race in Italy was not simply about adding another Grand Tour to his palmarès. Visma genuinely believed that three weeks of racing in May could give Vingegaard a higher peak of form for July. The theory was rooted in his performances in 2025, when he appeared to reach an even higher level at the Vuelta than he had at the Tour.

"We saw that his level was improving slightly in the second Grand Tour," sports director Marc Reef told Domestique ahead of the Giro. "That was an extra reason to go for it this year."

Vingegaard shared that conviction. He had noticed the same pattern in previous seasons and believed the accumulated workload of the Giro could leave him stronger, come July.

The first part of the experiment could hardly have gone better. Vingegaard dominated the Giro, completed his collection of Grand Tour victories and arrived at the Tour with another major success already secured.

But whether the Italian adventure actually improved his Tour performance remains an unanswered question.

Vingegaard was already 4:30 behind Pogačar when he crashed out on stage 15, depriving Visma of the opportunity to assess how he would respond to the final week after racing the Giro.

"We were missing the data after stage 15," Plugge told TV2 after Thursday's route presentation, explaining why the team could not properly evaluate the experiment.

The uncertainty cuts both ways. Vingegaard's deficit to Pogačar might suggest that the double had failed to deliver its intended advantage. Equally, the Slovenian's superiority makes it impossible to know whether a more traditional preparation would have produced a different outcome.

There is another complication, too. Vingegaard himself admitted after the Tour that Visma may have misjudged the demands of the route, preparing him for long mountain efforts when greater explosiveness was required.

"Obviously, it's difficult to be explosive when you've just ridden the Giro," he conceded.

It leaves Visma with an intriguing dilemma ahead of 2027. The double delivered a Giro victory, but the team cannot say with certainty whether it improved Vingegaard's chances against Pogačar.

Yet the most compelling argument for repeating the experiment might have little to do with performance data at all.

In July, Vingegaard revealed just how close he had come to leaving professional cycling the previous year.

"I said last year that if this was how it was going to be, I couldn't be in it anymore," he told Danish broadcaster TV2.

The relentless demands of competing at the highest level had taken their toll. Training camps, time away from his family, dietary restrictions and the constant attention required to maintain Grand Tour form had become increasingly difficult to sustain.

After discussions with Visma management, a compromise was reached. Vingegaard received greater influence over his racing calendar and training schedule, allowing him to strike a better balance between his professional ambitions and personal life.

The difference was evident throughout 2026.

"I'm much happier being a cyclist," Vingegaard said during the Tour. "We have taken a step in the right direction, but it is clear that it is only a step."

It would be simplistic to attribute his improved mental state entirely to racing the Giro. The changes extended well beyond his programme, and there is no guarantee that another double would deliver the same benefits.

But the broader lesson was unmistakable. The preparation model that had once helped make Vingegaard a Tour winner was no longer sustainable for him.

There is a considerable difference between having the physical capacity to win the Tour and being prepared to make every sacrifice necessary to pursue it. Vingegaard had reached a point where that distinction could no longer be ignored.

The 2027 route might now make the decision easier.

With two long time trials favouring Evenepoel and a reduced number of summit finishes, Visma have fewer reasons to believe that an exclusively Tour-focused preparation would give their leader a decisive advantage.

Another Giro and Tour double would allow Vingegaard to target a major objective in May while still arriving in France with legitimate ambitions. And, perhaps more importantly, it would preserve some of the freedom he fought to regain in 2026.

That does not mean he has abandoned his desire to win a third Tour. Victor Campenaerts recently revealed that Vingegaard had already contacted him in August to discuss their plans for 2027, a clear indication that his competitive motivation remains intact.

But there is a difference between wanting to win the Tour and allowing the Tour to dictate everything else.

A renewed Giro and Tour double could also allow Visma to rethink what success in July looks like.

For years, the team's Tour strategy has revolved almost entirely around Vingegaard's general classification ambitions. But with Pogačar increasingly difficult to beat, putting everything behind one objective carries considerable risk.

Matthew Brennan offers another option. After winning five stages at the 2026 Vuelta, the young Brit has emerged as one of the peloton's most promising sprinters. With seven flat stages on the 2027 Tour route, there is plenty to play for.

A less rigid focus on the general classification could also give Wout van Aert greater freedom to pursue stage victories rather than spending much of his Tour in service of Vingegaard.

Accommodating those ambitions would inevitably come at the expense of some climbing support. But a Giro victory already in the bag, coupled with multiple opportunities for success in July, could give Visma several ways to measure success rather than placing the entire burden on one rider.

And perhaps that is where the real opportunity lies.

Vingegaard has not given up on winning a third Tour, nor should he. But after coming close to retirement in 2025, he has learned that there is a cost to making yellow the only colour that matters.

The 2027 route might make another Tour victory harder to achieve. It could also make the decision to pursue a more balanced season considerably easier.

For a rider who nearly walked away because everything revolved around the Tour, an unfavourable route might turn out to be a blessing in disguise.