‘The timing is perfect’ - Why Wout van Aert is using the Vuelta to target the rainbow jersey

The Vuelta was always part of the plan, regardless of whether Van Aert had raced the Tour de France earlier in the summer.

“Even if Wout had ridden the Tour, he would still have started the Vuelta,” Pauwels told Het Nieuwsblad. “That was always the idea, to ride the Vuelta with the World Championships in mind.”

The reasoning behind that choice is closely linked to the way Van Aert responds to prolonged racing. Pauwels believes few riders benefit as much from the accumulated workload of a Grand Tour.

“Wout is someone who absorbs a lot of workload and volume very well,” he said. “All those days of racing make him better.”

It is something Van Aert has demonstrated repeatedly during his career. Even deep into the third week of a Grand Tour, he has often still been capable of producing major efforts for his team, including in support of general classification leaders in the mountains.

“We have seen so many times that he can still play a crucial role in the third week for Vingegaard or another classification rider,” Pauwels said. “That proves that he does not simply reach the end of a Grand Tour completely empty. Racing day after day actually makes him better, and that is something you cannot reproduce in training.”

There is still a significant recovery process involved.

Pauwels does not expect Van Aert to finish three weeks in Spain feeling fresh. The Belgian could leave the Vuelta carrying considerable fatigue, particularly if he continues to chase stages and the points classification.

But that is also part of the strategy. “Maybe he will finish the Vuelta exhausted, just like everyone else,” Pauwels said. “But then, from around seven days after the final stage and for the following weeks, you get that supercompensation effect.”

“The World Championships in Montréal therefore come at the perfect moment.”

Van Aert’s past results provide strong evidence for the theory.

In 2020 he took silver at the World Championships in Imola only a week after completing the Tour de France. A year later he finished second in the Olympic road race in Tokyo, again shortly after the Tour and on a course that appeared unusually difficult for a rider of his profile.

In 2023 another Tour was followed by another World Championship silver, this time in Glasgow.

For Pauwels, there is also a reason why a heavy racing block could become increasingly useful as Van Aert gets older.

“I believe his highest peaks can still be just as high as they were five years ago,” he said. “But it would not be unusual if it takes him a little longer now to reach top form and if he needs more work to get there.”

The nature of the Montréal course makes that workload even more important.

With around 3,800 metres of climbing, the World Championship road race is expected to reward riders who can repeatedly survive hard accelerations on short climbs while remaining competitive deep into a long race.

That means Van Aert needs to arrive considerably leaner and with stronger climbing legs than he would for many of the cobbled Classics.

“The World Championships in Montréal have 3,800 metres of climbing,” Pauwels said. “That means weight will play a big role.”

He believes the Vuelta can also help Van Aert naturally reach the weight required for such a demanding race. “The target weight is easier for Wout to reach by riding a Grand Tour. That is another advantage the Vuelta gives him.”

Winning in Spain would still matter, but it is therefore not the only measure of whether the race has been successful.

The bigger test comes in Canada, where the outlook has also changed considerably after Tadej Pogačar’s crash at the Vuelta.

Pogačar’s chances of competing in Montréal appear to have suffered a major blow after his crash at the Vuelta.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG manager Mauro Gianetti admitted on Sunday that the timeframe for the Slovenian to recover before the World Championships is extremely tight.

“Yes, the timeframe is very short. He’s still in the hospital and hasn't had the surgery yet,” Gianetti told RMC’s Bartoli Time on Sunday. “Of course, recovering in time for the World Championships doesn't seem likely.”

“But we’ll see how things progress over the next few days. The collarbone fracture is quite bad, it requires major surgery, so that doesn't help matters.”

Gianetti stopped short of definitively ruling Pogačar out, saying UAE first wants to see how the recovery develops.

“Now isn't the time to make decisions based on emotion. We need to wait a few days.”

For Belgium, the situation could significantly improve the chances of winning in Montréal.

Pogačar would have been the clear favourite for the road race and the rider around whom much of the tactical battle was expected to revolve. His likely absence could now leave Belgium, with Van Aert and Remco Evenepoel as its two leaders, as perhaps the strongest nation on the start line.

Pauwels is not asking Van Aert to sacrifice opportunities at the Vuelta in order to protect himself for Montréal.

“I have not told Wout that on a certain day he has to take it easy because of the World Championships,” he said. “The team has complete freedom in that and I trust them completely.”

The overall objective was already discussed earlier in the season with Van Aert’s trainer Mathieu Heijboer, meaning Visma | Lease a Bike is fully aware of the importance of what comes after the Vuelta.

“It was all discussed properly at the beginning of the year,” Pauwels said. “It is very clear that the World Championships are a major goal for Wout.”

“He is travelling to Canada as a co leader alongside Remco, not simply to make up the numbers.”