Tim Declercq: Evenepoel must reach 'unprecedented levels' to beat Pogacar at Tour de France

The retired Belgian domestique, who worked alongside Evenepoel at Soudal Quick-Step from 2019 till 2023, was asked on the Domestique Hotseat podcast whether the newly signed Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe rider can achieve his stated goal of Tour de France victory in the current competitive landscape.

"Of course it's a bit difficult question," Declercq began. "I would say if you just look at the data, then if you want to match the level of Tadej on the climbs, the watts per kilo and stuff like this for X amount of duration, it's just simple. I would say that if Tadej stays on the same level, he has to step up a level."

Declercq was careful to emphasise that he's not ruling out the possibility, but the mathematics of high-mountain performance present a clear challenge for the Belgian star.

"Which is, I'm not saying it's impossible, but he will have to produce what he hasn't produced before, I would say," Declercq explained. "And I say this with the biggest respect for Remco, he's the most amazing rider, he did such incredible results, also being already third at the Tour, it's crazy level."

The assessment comes as Evenepoel prepares for his first season with Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe, following his departure from Soudal Quick-Step, where he claimed Olympic gold medals, World titles, a Vuelta a España title, and a third-place finish at the 2024 Tour de France.

However, Declercq pointed to factors that could work in Evenepoel's favour, noting that the 25-year-old has rarely had the ideal preparation for the Tour de France.

"A lot of time he didn't have the best preparation and lot of crashes and not really not being able to build year by year by year where there is really something in it," said Declercq, referencing the various setbacks that have disrupted Evenepoel's Tour preparations in previous seasons.

The comment alludes to Evenepoel's injury-plagued career, which has included a horrific crash at Il Lombardia in 2020 and various other incidents that have prevented him from building consistent Tour de France campaigns over multiple years, including an incident with a BPost van in the winter of 2024.

Despite the analytical reality of the power numbers required to match Pogačar, Declercq refused to entirely close the door on Evenepoel's Tour ambitions.

"If you want to beat him he [Evenepoel] needs to produce power that we haven't seen from him before but again I don't say this is impossible," Declercq concluded.

Pogačar’s grip on Grand Tour racing is the backdrop to everything Declercq is saying. His 2025 Tour de France win was another statement, with Jonas Vingegaard again closest behind for Visma | Lease a Bike.

Declercq’s point is simple. Evenepoel has already shown he belongs at the top, but beating Pogačar (and Vingegaard) likely asks for something new, not just more of the same.

Whether that extra step comes with a cleaner run in and a new setup at Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe is one of the big unknowns as 2026 approaches.

Watch the full episode with Tim Declercq on the Domestique Hotseat 👇