Van der Poel sees echoes of Glasgow as he weighs ‘1,000 scenarios’ for Montreal Worlds

Van der Poel rode the local circuit for the first time this week and came away with much the same view he held beforehand. The course is harder than the one on which he became world champion in 2023, but not so hard that he considers himself out of contention.

“It is a difficult circuit. Probably right on the limit, but not impossible,” Van der Poel told Sporza.

The comparison with Glasgow is obvious enough for him to make, although he also sees one crucial distinction.

“It is a little bit like Glasgow, where I won, but the climb here is harder than it was in Scotland. The climbs there were shorter and steeper.”

The extra climbing could prove decisive. Montréal places a greater premium on repeated efforts uphill, while Van der Poel has often been at his most dangerous when fatigue turns a race into a test of durability, positioning and sustained power.

That is also why he is not necessarily hoping for a conservative race.

“The harder, the better,” Van der Poel said. “At least if I am good. After a hard race, I can still produce my watts.”

His logic is that a demanding race can gradually narrow the gap between pure climbers and the strongest classics riders. If enough damage is done before the final decisive moves, the advantage of the lighter men may become less pronounced.

Van der Poel arrives in Canada with little reason to doubt his condition. His final preparation at the Tour de Luxembourg ended with a 175km solo victory, an effort that underlined his form without convincing him that the same approach will automatically work at the Worlds.

“I was happy with how my legs felt, but Sunday will be something different,” he said. “My form is good, but that is no guarantee of success.”

The tactical uncertainty is almost as significant as the terrain.

With Tadej Pogačar absent, Van der Poel expects more riders to believe the rainbow jersey is within reach and more nations to take responsibility for making the race difficult.

“I think a lot of countries will try to make the race as hard as possible,” he said. “Without Tadej, many riders see an opportunity to become world champion and that will change the race a little.”

Van der Poel appears comfortable with the uncertainty that creates.

“You can write a thousand scenarios, but only one of them will happen and you have to react to that,” he said.

The absence of race radios only adds another layer.

“The nice thing about a World Championship is that it is always unpredictable, also without radios,” Van der Poel said. “That suits me.”

He does not expect the Netherlands to spend the day controlling from the front either. Instead, the Dutch can afford to leave much of the early responsibility to teams with a greater interest in forcing the pace.

“I do not think that is up to us,” he said. “There are more than enough countries that want to make the race hard.”

For all the uncertainty, Van der Poel was clear when asked to identify the rider he considers the strongest favourite.

“Remco Evenepoel is the top favourite,” he said. “His record in championships says enough. He can prepare extremely well and he is strong over this distance.”

“He is also the best rider when it comes to riding alone.”

Van der Poel also pointed to Paul Seixas and Isaac Del Toro as riders capable of putting the race under serious pressure on the climbs.

“If Paul Seixas and Isaac Del Toro go, there will not be many riders who can follow,” he said. “But I do not think the race is lost if you are 20 seconds behind.”

That leaves room for Van der Poel to survive a difficult moment and still bring his own strengths back into play later in the race.

He does not need Montréal to resemble Glasgow perfectly. He needs it to become hard enough, unpredictable enough and selective enough for his mix of power, endurance and race instinct to matter.

The course may sit close to his limit, but after seeing it in person, Van der Poel has not changed his conclusion.

It is difficult. It is not impossible.