Vingegaard confident in red, but wary of Valladolid time trial

“I believe 100 percent that I can win,” Vingegaard told Danish broadcaster TV2 on Monday. “We have a very strong team and I feel I’m getting better. I’ve had some good days already in this Vuelta, but also some less good days. I really believe I can still improve in the last week.”

Vingegaard’s confidence is underpinned by his results. He has already taken two stage wins in this Vuelta, and with Almeida the only rival still within a minute, the general classification looks set to be decided head-to-head. Further back, Tom Pidcock trails by 2:38, Jai Hindley by 3:10 and Felix Gall by 3:30.

The itinerary offers little respite, with Castro de Herville on Tuesday, Alto del Morredero on Wednesday, and Bola del Mundo on Saturday. Between them comes a 27km time trial across the plains of Castilla y León, and it is this stage that Vingegaard identifies as a potential pitfall.

“Almeida is also a very good time triallist. He’s just a very strong rider overall,” Vingegaard said. “I have to focus on myself and perform as well as I can, but the time trial doesn’t really suit me.”

History lends weight to his caution. Two years ago, the Vuelta covered almost the same course against the clock, and Vingegaard conceded close to half a minute to Almeida on that occasion. “That day wasn’t very good for me,” he admitted. “I hope I can do better this year.”

The absence of Tadej Pogačar alters the dynamic of this Vuelta, though Almeida has proven no less persistent an opponent. “When Pogačar is there, you almost have to look for weaknesses every day,” Vingegaard said. “When he isn’t, it’s a different race.”

Different, perhaps, but scarcely easier. Almeida has already beaten Vingegaard in four of their seven shared time trials. The margins are slender, the outcome uncertain. The Vuelta will not be decided until Valladolid and beyond, but Vingegaard knows as well as anyone that 48 seconds can be whittled away in less than half an hour on Spanish roads.