‘Vingegaard will miss Tour de France podium’ – Michael Rasmussen delivers grim verdict on 2027 route

Jonas Vingegaard may have won the Tour de France twice, but Michael Rasmussen does not expect him to finish among the top three in 2027.

The former Tour de France mountains classification winner has delivered a pessimistic assessment of his compatriot's chances following the presentation of next year's route, pointing to the 71 kilometres of individual time trialling and a lack of summit finishes as two major problems for the Visma rider.

Speaking to Viaplay, Rasmussen suggested that the route has pushed Vingegaard even further down the list of favourites.

"Before the presentation, Jonas was looking like the third favourite, which was probably quite realistic. But after seeing the route, it seems very likely that he has dropped another place," Rasmussen said.

Asked whether he still expects Vingegaard to reach the podium, his answer was unequivocal.

"No, I actually think he will finish outside the podium."

Rasmussen's main concern is the amount of time Vingegaard could lose to Remco Evenepoel against the clock.

With 71 kilometres of predominantly flat time trialling on the programme, he believes the Belgian could establish an advantage that Vingegaard would struggle to overturn in the mountains.

"Under normal circumstances, 71 kilometres against the clock on relatively flat roads would cost Vingegaard somewhere between three and four minutes compared to Remco Evenepoel," he explained.

Rasmussen used last year's Tour to illustrate the problem. After 14 stages, he noted, Vingegaard had an advantage of only around 30 seconds over Evenepoel before the Belgian had contested an individual time trial.

On a route such as the one presented for 2027, Rasmussen believes the situation could easily be reversed, leaving Vingegaard needing to make up several minutes in the final week.

"If we assume he has to close a gap of three or four minutes to Remco over just two or three stages, then he really has to ride incredibly fast."

Evenepoel is not the only rider Rasmussen has in mind. He also mentioned Paul Seixas and Isaac del Toro as potential podium rivals, arguing that both could benefit from the relatively flat time trials.

Vingegaard's own recent performances against the clock have added to his concerns. Rasmussen pointed to disappointing results in flatter time trials at the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France as evidence that the discipline has become a weakness.

The other issue for Vingegaard is the lack of opportunities to recover that lost time.

There are just three summit finishes on the 2027 Tour route, something Rasmussen considers particularly damaging for a rider whose greatest strength lies in the high mountains.

"Jonas really hasn't been given any gifts with this Tour de France route. There is a serious lack of summit finishes," he said.

Asked how his ideal route for Vingegaard would differ from the one unveiled, Rasmussen said he would have preferred climbing time trials instead of so many flat kilometres against the clock, along with another demanding mountain finish in the Pyrenees.

Rasmussen is not the only one who would have preferred more summit finishes. Visma's Head of Racing Marc Reef expressed a similar view after Thursday's route presentation.

"Compared to last year, I count fewer summit finishes, and in my opinion, there could have been more," Reef said.

Reef also acknowledged the importance of the two relatively flat time trials, but pointed to Visma's investment in the discipline as a reason for optimism.

"Time trialing is a discipline we work on extensively and invest a lot in. We're generally very strong in this area, and we have several specialists on the team."

The Dutchman expects the race to be decided in the Pyrenees, particularly on stage 18, which features the Tourmalet and 5,400 metres of climbing before finishing on the Col du Portet.

For all the concerns about the route, Reef was keen to stress that Visma still have plenty to work with. "This route offers us plenty of opportunities to achieve great things," he said.