Who will win the Vuelta a España? Breaking down the contenders after Pogacar's exit

Strengths: Mas looks to be the form of his life. His surprise catch of Pogačar on Puerto El Bartolo suggested as much and his assured victory atop the Alto de Aitana seemed to be the confirmation. 

It was only the seventh win of his career and his first in four years, indicating that this version of Mas is different to what has come before. Amid a dizzying flurry of attacks, he had the patience to wait for the final 3km of the climb and then the strength to make his effort count.

Mas also has more Vuelta experience than most, with four podium finishes over the years. Yes, he never really looked like winning those Vueltas, but he was generally consistent across the three weeks, without any especially ruinous bad days. That quality could stand him in good stead here.

Weaknesses: Mas finished second in 2018, 2021 and 2022 without ever giving the impression that he believed he could win the Vuelta, and like everyone else, he lined up for this year’s race assuming that he was racing for second place behind Pogačar. 

Winning the Vuelta will thus require a significant shift in mentality for Mas. He cleared the first hurdle at Aitana surprisingly well, but the pressure will rise as Granada draws nearer. 

Can Mas handle the heat? And deep down, does he really believe he is a Grand Tour winner? In any case, he will need to keep riding boldly, as he needs more time on Roglič before the Jerez time trial.

Strengths: Roglič’s record haul of four Vuelta victories means that nobody can match his muscle memory at this race. Time and again, the Slovenian has found a way to win in Spain, and he is, by a distance, one of the canniest riders in the peloton.

That nous was apparent again on the Alto de Aitana, where Roglič picked and chose when to respond to attacks before emptying the tank in the most measured way possible in the final 2km, limiting his losses to just 12 seconds.

After a crash-interrupted build-up, Roglič should theoretically grow stronger as the race draws on, and he will expect to gain time on all his rivals in the 32km time trial to Jerez on stage 18.

Weaknesses: Roglič’s preparation for the Vuelta was interrupted by a heavy training crash in July and his participation was only confirmed days before the start. While he has limited the damage better than expected so far, he hasn’t been able to match Mas’ explosiveness at key moments. 

The Slovenian is also two months shy of his 37th birthday and 18 months removed from his last stage race victory, and he looked to be in steady decline ahead of this Vuelta. At Red Bull, he had been eclipsed by Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz, and his best result of 2026 so far was fifth at Tirreno-Adriatico. The early signs may have been promising, but there’s no guarantee he can turn the tide on this Vuelta.

Strengths: The Austrian is one of the best climbers in the peloton, and his trajectory as a Grand Tour rider is clearly on the rise. Gall impressed en route to second place behind an unbeatable Jonas Vingegaard at the Giro d’Italia in May, and he started this Vuelta looking like the man most likely to take second behind Pogačar, something he underlined by daring to follow the world champion’s winning attack in Andorra for 300m.

Gall is also backed by a strong Decathlon CMA CGM team, who haven’t been shy about seizing control of the race on his behalf. No other GC contender can lean on the same collective strength at this race.

Weaknesses: Gall’s time trialling is a clear Achilles heel and the race against the watch in Jerez will be a defining moment in his Vuelta. He needs to gain time elsewhere to offset his inevitable losses there.

At the Giro and in Andorra, Gall showed that he is more adept than most at gauging his effort against the so-called ‘alien’ talents of the peloton, but it is not yet clear if he has the punch to make the difference against riders closer to him in ability. His Vuelta a Burgos win was arguably harder fought than it needed to be, and his failure to drop his rivals at Aitana after all of Decathlon’s work will also be a concern. 

Strengths: The Scot is one of the best climbers in the race, and he has a decent turn of speed that could allow him to pick up bonus seconds. His fourth-place finish at last year’s Tour de France proves that he has the engine for three-week racing and his injury-enforced absence this July means he should be fresher than most on this Vuelta.

And despite their recent shortcomings, Netcompany-Ineos still have what José Mourinho might call Grand Tour heritage. That abstract concept could make a difference in a race as open as this. 

Midway through the wide-open 2020 Giro, after all, Astana DS Giuseppe Martinelli presciently labelled Tao Geoghegan Hart as the most likely winner, reasoning that, in the absence of a clear favourite, Ineos knew more than most about how to win Grand Tours.

The team has lost plenty of Grand Tour lustre and talent in recent years, on the road and in the team car, but there remains a wealth of three-week knowledge within the set-up. 

Weaknesses: Onley will be in damage limitation mode in the Jerez time trial and, like Gall, he needs to start clawing back ground with that in mind. Although Onley has impressed on this Vuelta, there have also been days where he has been a touch too enthusiastic, most notably on the Puerto El Bartolo on stage 6, when he bravely but foolishly tried to follow Pogačar. His savvy display on the Alto de Aitana, mind, suggested that Onley had digested the lesson.

Strengths: Few riders in the peloton know the intricacies of three-week racing more than Carapaz, a former Giro winner who has also placed on the podium at both the Tour and the Vuelta. 

In his EF era, Carapaz has also developed a tendency to start his Grand Tours relatively steadily before finishing like a train, and he will need to draw on that characteristic all over again after shipping time repeatedly in the opening week.

Above all, Carapaz is a fearless attacker, and he will think nothing of throwing caution to the wind with a long-range effort, especially if he continues to slide in overall standings. In a race as open as this, his aggression could create all sorts of disarray and panic among his rivals.

Weaknesses: A week into the Vuelta, the trend is a worrying one. Carapaz is already 3:26 off Mas after conceding another 54 seconds on the Alto de Aitana, and he has repeatedly been off the pace of his rivals at key junctures.

On the Aitana, Carapaz’s admirable willingness to go on the offensive backfired quite dramatically, and he struggled after his determined attack was reeled in by Mas. So far, Carapaz hasn’t come close to reproducing the sensational form that carried him to two mountain stage wins in the dying days of the Tour.

Strengths: The Dane should be confident after placing sixth at the Tour, one spot ahead of Lidl-Trek stablemate Juan Ayuso, marking his best Grand Tour display since he took fifth on the 2024 Vuelta.

Skjelmose was subdued on the Vuelta’s early set-piece days, losing significant time to his podium rivals at Andorra, Castelló and Valdelinares, but he gave his best performance of the race so far on the tough Aitana, where he limited the damage on Mas to just 20 seconds.

In 2024, Skjelmose overcame a slow start to place fifth at the Vuelta. He will look to this year’s Jerez time trial with considerably more optimism than most given his aptitude against the clock, as demonstrated by third place in the Thonon-les-Bains test on the Tour.

Weaknesses: This is the first time Skjelmose has raced two Grand Tours in one season, and this Vuelta comes at the end of a very full campaign for the Dane, who placed second at Amstel Gold Race in April.

Freshness – mental as well as physical – is always a key factor at the Vuelta, and Skjelmose might pay a toll for his exertions earlier in 2026. He also has a lot of ground to recoup, starting the second week almost four minutes down.

Strengths: The American is one of the best climbers in the peloton, and he is a former Vuelta winner, having carried the red jersey to Madrid in 2023 ahead of then-teammate Primoz Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard.

Kuss’ experience and his cool head could carry him a long way on this Vuelta, especially in this field of unexpected red jersey contenders. And, as 2023 demonstrated, he knows how to react when the circumstances of the race – and his own ambitions – are dramatically redrawn.

Weaknesses: This is Kuss’ third Grand Tour of the season. Yes, his Vuelta victory came after a similar programme, but a man cannot step in the same river twice and this has been a very different kind of year. Although Kuss impressed in Andorra, he looked fatigued in losing 1:44 at Aitana.

That means Kuss is already four minutes down overall, and the Jerez time trial will likely add to that deficit. He needs big displays at this week’s summit finishes at Calar Alto and La Pandera to turn his Vuelta around.