2026 Il Lombardia preview: Who will end Pogacar's half-decade reign?

Known as La Classica delle foglie morte in Italian, or Race of the Falling Leaves in English, Il Lombardia is characterised by the Autumn setting in which it takes place. 

Compared to the 4 Spring Monuments, Il Lombardia is strikingly distant in terms of its position on the calendar, and therefore marks the final chance for riders to land a major victory in the road season.

However, for the last half-decade, the Il Lombardia has turned into Tadej Pogačar’s playground, with the Slovenian leaving no room for others to taste victory.

Last year, he soloed to his fifth title, equalling the record of Fausto Coppi, who won his most recent in 1954. More significantly however, Pogačar became the first rider to win five consecutive editions.

To put it into perspective, Jakob Fuglsang was the most recent winner of Il Lombardia before Pogačar and the Dane retired at the end of last season. 

What’s more, Bauke Mollema is the only fellow winner other than the Slovenian who is still active, and fittingly, this edition will mark the 2019 winner’s record-breaking 18th start in what is the final outing of his career. 

While Mollema isn’t expected to be among the key protagonists on Saturday, there will be plenty of stars looking to seize Pogačar’s throne, and an exciting race should be on the cards.

• 📅 Date: Saturday, 10 October
• 📍 Route: Bergamo - Como
• 📏 Distance: 239km / 148.5 miles
• ⛰️ Elevation Gain: 4,845m / 15,896ft
• ⏱️ Start Time: 10:45 CET
• 🏁 Expected Finish: 16:40 CET

The 2026 route starts in Bergamo and finishes in Como, continuing the modern pattern of alternating the direction between the two cities.

There are 4,845m of elevation gain packed into 239km, beginning with a succession of ascents through the Bergamo Prealps. 

Selvino is the first major test: a 10.1km climb which averages 5.9% with 19 hairpins in total. 

The riders will reach the foot of the climb after 20.6km of racing, meaning if the breakaway has yet to form and establish a significant gap, there could be early action on this climb, as it presents an opportunity for some strong climbers to escape and be part of the break.

Following the summit, the riders will descend their way towards Ambria, pass through Zogno, before reaching the base of the next climb in Brembila after 61.1km of racing. 

The Colle di Berbenno is a less challenging ascent than its predecessor, being 4.5km in length with an average gradient of 6.3%. 

After the Colle di Berbenno, the riders won’t have to wait long for a more difficult test as they reach Valpiana around 10km after the summit. 

The climb to Valpiana is more on par with the Selvino, at 10.1km in length with an average gradient of 6.2%. 

Due to the fact that the riders will still be 153.5km from the finish at the summit of Valpiana, the climb will more likely serve as an energy drainer rather than a launchpad for race-defining attacks. 

This is also likely because one of the flattest sections of the race for 30km follows the descent of Valpiana, before the riders reach a new climb. 

One of the main changes this year comes at Giovenzana, a new 3.6km climb which averages a stinging 9.2%, with maximum gradients reaching 16%. 

With 103km remaining from the crest of the Giovenzana climb, the race heads towards Lecco and Lake Como before reaching Bellagio and the iconic Madonna del Ghisallo.

The climb from Bellagio is 8.6km at 6.2%, with sections reaching 14%, meaning this could be a pivotal moment in the race where the strongest riders begin to make their moves.

Following this crucial climb, the riders will descend their way back into Como before tackling the first of two ascents to San Fermo, which is 2.7km with an average of 7.2%. 

The riders will then pass through the finish line before continuing on the final 22km circuit. 

Around 1km later, they will begin the steep Civiglio climb, which is 4.2km in length. The climb has an average gradient of 9.7%, with gradients also reaching up to 14%, and the road narrows towards the summit.  

Regardless of whether the race has already split at this point, the Civiglio ascent will serve as a crucial test, where the title could be won or lost.

The Civiglio climb was where Vincenzo Nibali made the difference in the 2015 and 2017 editions, using both the ascent and the descent to his advantage.

The riders will then descend their way back towards the San Fermo della Battaglia climb for the second time. 

The 2026 configuration with the double San Fermo ascent has only been used once previously, back in 2022 where Pogačar beat Enric Mas in a two-up sprint.  

The summit of the final San Fermo ascent comes with around 5km remaining, before a fast descent back towards Como where the finale could become quite tactical with two tunnels and large roundabouts to navigate before the flamme rouge.

There is one final sweeping left-hand bend before the final finish straight where the 2026 edition could draw to a close.

It could well be the setting for a solo winner to be crowned, but considering the strength of the start list, there’s a possibility that a sprint finish may decide the race.

After claiming the European title in flamboyant style, Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) will be looking to make a statement in his first outing in his new colours. 

Having finished second behind Pogačar in the previous two editions, Evenepoel naturally seems a strong fit to step into the void left by the Slovenian. 

However, the dynamics will be different compared to the recent editions, because when everyone looked at Pogačar in the past, now it will be Evenepoel who is expected to ignite the race. 

Nonetheless, Evenepoel showed his tenacity when it comes to racing under the spotlight, overcoming his disappointment in Montréal to become European Champion in Slovenia just one week later. 

After the race, Evenepoel admitted that he had felt the heat after his Worlds setback, adding more emphasis on delivering in Slovenia, which he duly did.

“I might not have really shown it, but I was still very disappointed in myself and my performance. I also felt like I had disappointed the whole country with my performance,” Evenepoel told Sporza. “I still hope that everyone is proud now that we are back. And sorry again for last week’s World Championships.”

With that weight now off his shoulders, Evenepoel will have his sights set on a first Monument victory since Liège-Bastogne-Liège in 2023. 

As he knows from Montréal, he will face stiff competition, but he should be confident in his chances after his performance in Slovenia. 

Though Pogačar won't be present to try and win a record-extending sixth consecutive edition, UAE Team Emirates-XRG will still be hoping to stand on the top step of the podium in Como.

Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) helped to set up Pogačar's race-winning acceleration last year before going on to finish fifth. This time around, the Mexican Champion is all in for the win.

Del Toro has a great track record in Italy, with 11 out of his 33 professional victories to date coming in Italian races. 

After finishing fifth at the Worlds, the 22-year-old is set to head to Gran Piemonte in the defence of his title on Thursday, which will give a good indication of how he has recovered since Montréal. 

If he’s anywhere near his best, Del Toro will be in the mix for victory, but the Mexican Champion isn't the only star who will take to the start for UAE. 

Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) will line up for his first Monument as World Champion after a productive first week in the rainbow jersey. 

The American was on the attack in his rainbow debut at the Giro dell'Emilia before taking tenth, and backed this up by finishing second the following day at the Coppa Agostoni. 

If there is an opportunity to go long-range, McNulty will take it, and the other teams will be far more cautious about letting the American get a significant advantage after what he showed in Montreal.

Twelve months ago, a 19-year-old Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM) made his debut in Lombardy and finished in seventh place, making him the youngest rider in over a century to finish in the top 10 of a Monument.

Since then, Seixas’ stock has continued to rise stratospherically to the point where he is  a serious contender to win races such as this despite having just turned 20 years old. 

He finished 15th in Montréal after suffering from cramps on the final lap. For the majority of the race, Seixas and Del Toro appeared to take on the role of pre-race favourites, driving the pace within the middle portion of the race before closing moves in the finale. 

The Worlds is a chaotic race to control as a pre-race favourite with the nature of circuit racing and lack of race radios, whereas Il Lombardia should be a more straightforward affair for the favourites, including Seixas and Decathlon, to control. 

If Seixas can produce an explosive acceleration similar to what he did at the GP Montréal on the Camilien-Houde ascent, which only Del Toro could respond to over the crest, then he will be difficult to contend with for the rest of the competition. 

Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) traversed his final stepping stone towards Lombardy with another podium finish, this time a second place at Tre Valli Varesine, to add to the one he took at the Giro dell’Emilia. 

The Briton has cemented himself as one of the most in-form riders in the current block of racing, but having finished on the podium and in the top 10 multiple times, Pidcock will no doubt be craving his first win since the GP Industria & Artigianato at the start of August. 

The punchier nature of this year’s route should suit Pidcock to a tee, and if the descents become an important factor, the Briton is one of the riders most likely to be able to capitalise. 

The dynamics heading into this weekend could have looked significantly different if it weren’t for the estimated gap of between 2.8 and 3.3 millimetres that Evenepoel managed to pip Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) by to European glory. 

It wasn’t to be for the Italian after an agonising wait for the photo finish confirmation, but he has the opportunity to go again at a race where he has shone in the past. 

He finished fifth at the race of the falling leaves back in 2020, before joining Pogačar and Evenepoel on a star-studded podium in 2024. 

Ciccone’s consistency as one of the main protagonists in the peloton in recent weeks has been noticeable. He finished second at the GP Québec, seventh at the GP Montréal, and ninth at the Worlds, though he appeared to be one of the strongest riders on the final laps in the latter race. 

Italy are currently enduring their longest drought without a winner of Il Lombardia, with Vincenzo Nibali the most recent home winner back in 2017. 

Ciccone has been regularly knocking on the door for recent weeks, and eventually that door may just open and reveal a Monument behind it. 

Ciccone could also have a foil in the shape of Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek), who, when at his best, would be expected to be in the mix.

However, the Spaniard abandoned the European Championships after being distanced early on, so it remains to be seen how he has recovered. 

Visma | Lease a Bike have also made an impression in the recent Italian races, with Davide Piganzoli winning the Giro dell’Emilia. 

That victory backed up the 24-year-old’s stage win and GC success at the Skoda Tour de Luxembourg and 20th-place finish at the Worlds, confirming his good form. 

In Emilia and at the Worlds, Matteo Jorgenson played the teammate role to perfection while also finishing fifth and eighth, respectively. 

He then backed this up by leading the Dutch team to third at Tre Valli Varesine, confirming that he has a good chance of being in the mix regardless of whether that is in a leadership or teammate capacity.

The man who beat Pidcock and Jorgenson at Tre Valle Varesine, stamping home his immense talent, was Jarno Widar (Lotto-Intermarché).

After taking his first professional victory on the road, the 20-year-old is in line for his first Monument, and his performance on Wednesday will have left an impression on many in the peloton.

While the full start list has yet to be confirmed and more names could be added, other riders to watch include: Ramses Debruyne (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Pello Bilbao and Lenny Martinez (Bahrain-Victorious), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Richard Carapaz and Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost), Enric Mas (Movistar), Oscar Onley (Netcompany-Ineos), Mathys Rondel and Michael Storer (Tudor) and Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek).