Giro d’Italia stage 11 preview - A deceptively dangerous day after the reset

Two days after the rest day, the peloton is back on the road for a hilly stage of almost 200 kilometres from Porcari to Chiavari. The riders should be relatively fresh after a time trial and a day off, but that freshness could also make the race more explosive. 

With many teams looking for opportunities outside the general classification battle, the breakaway is likely to play a major role.

Key information:

• Start: 12:30 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:16 (CET)
• Stage type: hilly
• Stage length: 195.16km
• Elevation gain: 2743m

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As was often the case during the opening week of this Giro, the first half of the stage is relatively straightforward. The opening kilometres are largely flat and should offer the peloton time to settle into the day. But that calm may not last.

Once the race reaches the second half, flat roads almost disappear. The terrain begins to rise and fall repeatedly, gradually wearing down the riders before a demanding finale.

The first real test is a 3km climb at 6.5%, quickly followed by another ascent of 2km at 7% and then the Passo del Termine, a 6.6km climb averaging 5.1%. None of these climbs are brutal on their own, but together they begin to place fatigue in the legs.

After a descent, the stage becomes more serious. The Colla de Guaitarola, a second category climb of 9.5km at 6.4%, is the longest classified ascent of the day. It is followed by a plateau, a long descent and a short flatter section, but by that point the rhythm of the race could already be difficult to manage.

The real finale starts with around 33km to go. First comes the Colla dei Scioli, a 4.7km climb at 7.3%. Its final 1.8km average 9.6%, making it the hardest single section of the stage. If a strong group wants to force a selection, this is the obvious place to do it.

What follows could be just as important as the climb itself. The descent is technical and steep, and it may shape the outcome of the stage. Riders with strong bike handling skills can gain time here, while any hesitation could prove costly.

A 7.6km valley section, slightly downhill, then leads into the final classified climb of the day: the Cogorno. At 4.2km and 7%, it is not long, but after nearly 180km of racing and several climbs already in the legs, it will hurt. The irregular gradients make it even harder to settle into a rhythm.

The Red Bull kilometre comes just after the top of the climb, adding another incentive for riders to keep pushing over the summit. From there, another technical descent follows. It is shallower than the previous one, but the repeated accelerations out of the corners will drain already tired legs.

Afterwards, another technical descent follows, this time more shallow.

There is still one final sting: with 5km to go, the riders face a short punchy climb of 1km at 4.5%, before a technical run in through the streets.

Key points

• Intermediate sprint - 126km to go
• Passo del Termine | 3rd category climb - 6.6km at 5.1% - 79km to go
• Colla de Guaitarola | 2nd category climb - 9.5km at 6.4% - 59km to go
• Colla dei Scioli | 3rd category climb - 4.7km at 7.3% - 28km to go
• Cogorno | 3rd category climb - 4.2km at 7% - 13km to go
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) - 12.5km to go (just after top of last climb)

This has all the ingredients for a breakaway stage. Many of the non GC riders have effectively had two recovery days, with the time trial followed by the official rest day. That could make the fight for the breakaway intense.

The flat opening section may actually make that fight harder to control. With few obstacles early on, many riders will believe they have a chance to get away, and teams may spend a long time cancelling each other out before the right move finally forms.

If the breakaway has not been established by the time the road begins to rise, the race could become extremely difficult to manage. From around 100km to go, there are hardly any flat roads left. It seems unlikely that a GC team would want to spend significant energy controlling such a demanding stage, unless a dangerous rider close on the general classification gets involved.

The most decisive point may come on the Colla dei Scioli. It is the hardest climb of the finale, and the technical descent that follows makes it an ideal launchpad. A rider or small group could attack there and use the descent to open a gap before the final climb.

Even if the winning move does not go there, the leading group is likely to be heavily reduced. By the time the race reaches the Cogorno and the final kilometres, this may no longer be about pure climbing strength. Descending ability, positioning and tactical patience could be just as important.

Lidl-Trek has the obvious favourite here with Giulio Ciccone. Since the Italian deliberately lost time in stage 8, he can fully focus on stage hunting. In stage 10, the peloton didn't give the breakaway enough time, but this time, that should be different. This stage seems tailor-made for him.

Uno-X Mobility arrives with one of the strongest breakaway units in the race. Andreas Leknessund and Martin Tjotta already showed excellent form on stage 8, finishing second and third. This stage may suit them even better. However, the latter apparently has gotten sick after the rest day.

Neither rider is known primarily for explosiveness, which makes a long-range move particularly appealing. Leknessund, in particular, looks like the type of rider who could attack on the penultimate climb and try to commit early.

Johannes Kulset would also have been a strong option for Uno-X on a route like this, although after spending plenty of energy during the first week, he may be managed more carefully.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG also have several cards to play, especially after the abandonments of Yates and Vine changed the team’s dynamic. Jhonatan Narvaez has already taken two stage wins, while Igor Arrieta has also won once. Jan Christen gives them another dangerous option for a stage like this. Antonio Morgado and Mikkel Bjerg may find the climbing too demanding, but both remain valuable riders for other opportunities.

Movistar have also been active throughout the race. Javier Romo was not at his best early in the Giro, but he appears to be recovering, and the rest day should have helped. Lorenzo Milesi is another interesting name. He looks in excellent condition, and if he times his move well, a tough stage like this could be within reach.

Michael Valgren of EF Education-EasyPost is another major contender if he can make the break. His form has been clear, but getting into the right move on flat terrain is not always easy. If he is there when the race reaches the climbs, he becomes one of the strongest candidates for the stage win.

Alessandro Pinarello (NSN) may also come into the picture. He seems to need some time to find his rhythm in a Grand Tour, and the rest day could have helped him reset. This type of hilly, attritional stage suits him well.

Soudal Quick-Step have two strong options in Gianmarco Garofoli and Filippo Zana. Both are capable of hunting a stage win here, but they will need to race more cohesively. On stage 8, they both made the breakaway but failed to turn it into a result, and were later seen arguing. If they can align their tactics, they could be a dangerous duo.

Thomas Guillermo Silva of XDS Astana Team hardly needs an introduction at this point. He has already shown excellent condition several times in this Giro, and this is another stage that fits his profile. Christian Scaroni would also be well suited to the route, but his position in the GC may make it difficult for him to get freedom in the breakaway.

Other riders to watch include Alan Hatherly (Team Jayco AlUla), Ludivico Crescioli (Team Polti VisitMalta), and Magnus Sheffield (Netcomapny INEOS)

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Ciccone

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Leknessund, Narvaez

⭐⭐⭐  Romo, Valgren, Christen

⭐⭐  Arrieta, Garofoli, Pinarello, Silva

⭐ Hatherly, Zana, Milesi, Crescioli, Sheffield