Giro d’Italia stage 12 preview: A classic transition stage with two possible outcomes

This stage offers a genuine opportunity for both the breakaway specialists and the riders targeting a reduced sprint. That balance should make for an intriguing tactical fight across the day.

Key information:

• Start: 13:15 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:14 (CET)
• Stage type: hilly
• Stage length: 175.33km
• Elevation gain: 1937m

Follow stage 12 live at Domestique with our live reporting!

The stage opens with 9.5km of false flat before the riders reach an early 3.2km climb at 5.3 percent. It is not especially demanding, but it could provide the perfect launchpad for the first attacks of the day.

After that, the race settles into around 87km of largely flat terrain. The key section comes later, when the peloton faces a climb split into two parts. The first section is 8.4km at 4.8 percent, followed by a short and shallow descent and a flatter stretch. The second part is more testing: 4.6km at 6.5 percent, with the final 1.6km averaging 8.5 percent.

What makes that climb even more difficult is what follows. Rather than dropping straight into a descent, the riders face 11.4km of rolling terrain, which could be brutal for anyone distanced over the top.

A 10km descent then leads into the final 30km, most of which are relatively flat. However, the road rises and falls again between 15km and 7km to go, adding one more complication before the finish.

The stage ends on a beautiful, straight road into Novi Ligure.

Key points

• Intermediate sprint - 74km to go
• Colle Giovo | 3rd category climb - 11.4km at 4.2% - 67km to go
• Bric Berton | 3rd category climb - 5.5km at 5.9% - 52km to go
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) -  13km to go (at the end of 1.7 at 4.1% climb)

This is a difficult stage to predict. A breakaway victory is very possible, but so is a reduced sprint. Teams such as Movistar, Decathlon CMA CGM, Ineos Grenadiers, Bahrain Victorious, Israel Premier Tech and XDS Astana could all have reasons to try to control the race.

That control is far from guaranteed, though. Orluis Aular crashed on stage 6, Tobias Lund Andresen has not yet climbed as well as hoped and has been reported sick, and Decathlon CMA CGM also has general classification ambitions with Felix Gall. 

Netcompany Ineos have GC interests of their own through Thymen Arensman and Egan Bernal, while Edoardo Zambanini and Corbin Strong are both still working their way back after crashes earlier in the Giro. XDS Astana, meanwhile, may not be fully convinced that Thomas Guillermo Silva will be quick enough if the race comes back together.

That means the outcome may depend on how much confidence those teams have in their sprinters. There will need to be a shared commitment to chasing, because plenty of riders will see this as a day to get into the breakaway.

Netcompany Ineos may have a strong card to play with Ben Turner. The Briton has been a hugely valuable teammate so far, and this stage suits him extremely well. If the team chooses to ride for him, he has a realistic chance of finishing it off from a reduced group. 

However, they also have Filippo Ganna. He could opt for the breakaway, a late attack, or even sprint himself if Turner isn't there. But it's also possible that he just does the leadout.

NSN Cycling Team will look to Corbin Strong, who crashed early in the Giro but showed signs of improvement on stage 8. On his usual level, this is exactly the kind of stage where he can be dangerous.

Edoardo Zambanini follows a similar pattern. The Bahrain Victorious rider also went down early in the race, but appears to be recovering well. A reduced bunch sprint on rolling terrain is very much within his range.

For Orluis Aular, the question is his condition. The Movistar rider crashed more recently, in the finale of stage 6. If he has recovered properly, this is another excellent opportunity for him.

Decathlon CMA CGM will hope that Tobias Lund Andresen climbs better than he did earlier in the race. The team had clear plans for him on stage 4, but he was dropped very early. If his reported illness has eased, it is reasonable to expect his climbing legs to improve as the Giro progresses. This could therefore be a more suitable test.

UAE Team Emirates XRG are likely to prefer a breakaway scenario. Jhonatan Narváez looks like their standout option, while Jan Christen, Antonio Morgado and Mikkel Bjerg should also enjoy this terrain. The stage is less naturally suited to Igor Arrieta, although a well timed move could always change that. As a collective, UAE could become a major problem for any team trying to set up a sprint.

For Soudal Quick-Step, Andrea Raccagni looks like a strong alternative if Paul Magnier struggles on the climbs, which is a realistic possibility. The Italian is in excellent form and has a strong sprint for a rider who climbs this well. Positioning is not always his biggest strength, so the more selective the race becomes, the better his chances may be.

XDS Astana will want a better outcome than they managed on stage 4, the previous reduced sprint opportunity, where Thomas Guillermo Silva lost the Maglia Rosa. The rest day may have played a role, as not every rider responds well to that interruption. This time, Astana could climb better, being able to opt for both the breakaway and a reduced sprint.

EF Education-EasyPost will hope the stage falls to the breakaway, where Michael Valgren would be a serious contender. His experience, durability and punch make him a dangerous rider on terrain like this.

Other riders to watch include Axel Huens (Groupama-FDJ United), and Jasper Stuyven (Soudal Quick-Step)

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Turner

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Strong, Zambanini

⭐⭐⭐  Aular, Lund Andresen, Narvaez

⭐⭐  Raccagni, Valgren, Christen, Silva

⭐  Huens, Bjerg, Morgado, Stuyven, Ganna