Stage 11 preview: Van Aert – Van der Poel set for punchy clash?

After a well-earned rest day, the peloton returns for a stage with a punchy finale in and around Toulouse. Officially labeled as “flat” by the organizers, it is anything but. Especially in the second half of the race, several kickers await, with the Côte de Pech David serving as the ultimate test.

Start: 13:25 (CET)
Estimated arrival: 17:17 (CET)
Total length stage 11: 156.8km
Elevation gain: 1650m

Follow every move at stage 11 with our live report

From Toulouse, we make a large clockwise loop, eventually returning to the city.

The opening phase of the stage is mostly flat, with the only categorized climb of the first part coming after 25 km: the Côte de Castelnau-d'Estrétefonds (1.5 km at 6.3%). Teams have the opportunity to control this opening.

The final hour begins as the peloton reaches the southernmost point of the day, before turning back toward Toulouse, with the Côte de Montgiscard as the first obstacle.

Côte de Montgiscard (1.6 km at 5.7%)
4th category - 45.1 km to the finish

The climbs come thick and fast, with the next ascent already looming as the route snakes into the village of Corronsac.

Côte de Corronsac (900m at 7.1%)
4th category - 39.6 km to the finish

The winding roads south of Toulouse continue to challenge the riders, with a trio of uncategorized climbs packed into a 14-kilometer stretch: 900m at 7.9%, 1.5km at 4.2% and 1km at 6.2%. It’s often a matter of subjectivity when it comes to categorizing climbs.

The final two climbs both begin along the banks of the Garonne. The penultimate ascent leads to the commune of Vieille-Toulouse, and as such, the climb naturally takes its name from it. 

Is the finale already being completely opened up here? The Côte Pech David might possibly instill some fear.

Côte de Vieille-Toulouse (1.4 km at 7.3%)
4th category - 14.3 km to the finish

After a fast descent, 2.5 kilometers of relatively straight roads follow. Positioning will be crucial, as the final climb begins immediately after a sharp corner. 

The climb kicks off with a sharp turn and a brutal ramp of 17–18%, immediately stringing out the peloton. If a team decides to push the pace high or if someone like Van der Poel attacks here, gaps will open quickly, making it all the more difficult to claw your way back. 

After a more forgiving middle section, the gradients return to double digits.

The descent features a series of wide hairpin bends and a narrowing point 7.5 kilometers from the finish.

The final 7 kilometers are completely flat and there are still a few sharp turns, but the final 3.5 kilometers unfold on a wide boulevard and run mostly straight.

The final straight stretches for 500 meters.

Sunshine and temperatures around 30°C. A light to moderate breeze is blowing, it’s mostly headwind in the final 50 kilometers, but the last two climbs will have a tailwind.

It’s a short stage and I think this is the only stage this week where strong sprinters have a chance to win, but only if they can handle the hills, and many won’t. That sets the stage for three main scenarios, listed in order of probability: a reduced bunch sprint, a small group of attackers or a late solo attack.

What’s crucial for those scenarios is early control, the peloton can’t afford to let a strong breakaway slip away too soon. EF will share the workload at the front with teams confident in their contender for this finale. But of course, you can’t rule out the breakaway scenario completely, certainly not if Van der Poel and Van Aert or other strong riders have their sights set on that scenario.

I’m going to delve a bit deeper into the first scenarios. Since the Côte de Pech David comes last, I’m not sure if it’s smart to attack before that point. There could definitely be attempts, and they will contribute to making the race harder, but I think it will come down to the Côte de Pech David for the decisive moments. There will be a very high pace leading up to that sharp corner at the base. Everyone will want to be in position. There will be attacks on this climb, it’s almost inevitable, as it’s a very nasty kicker. 

What happens afterward depends on the damage in the group. It’s possible that a small group with the best punchers and GC riders gets away, then we could see another sprint battle between Pogacar and Van der Poel, this time with van Aert?

But if they look at each other, a sneaky attack on the flat roads in the city is also a possibility, perhaps that’s where a Frenchman could seize the opportunity to give his country its first stage win in this Tour? I’m thinking of Grégoire, Vauquelin or Alaphilippe. Seven kilometers of flat terrain is quite long, and only if the peloton is completely shattered do I believe this scenario has a chance of succeeding. If the peloton is still relatively compact after the descent, there will likely be enough teammates to keep the pace high, which makes a reduced sprint the most likely outcome for me in the end.

Who should we expect to be in contention for the victory and the top spots in a reduced sprint? Wout van Aert is the first name that comes to mind, this should really be the stage that suits him best. It’s not as tough as Rouen, but more demanding than Laval. He has a very strong track record in reduced sprints at the Tour. At Alpecin, I think Groves will be the sprint option. Of course, Van der Poel can also win the reduced sprint, but I see him more likely being used as an attacker.

Lund Andresen and Laurance are expected to be in the mix for the sprint too. For riders like Girmay and De Lie, it’s less straightforward, they’re even more dependent on the pace in the final. I see their chances as rather slim.

Others who should be capable of getting a result in the scenario of a reduced sprint include Velasco, Wright, Venturini, Tronchon, Berckmoes and Hirschi.

Trek and Milan might be less eager about this stage. There are 50 points at the finish, and it would be suboptimal if Pogacar or Van der Poel take them. In principle, they have an ideal rider for this finale in Nys, the question is whether he can find his best legs again after the rest day. For Milan, I think it might end up being a bit too tough, but you can never completely rule out a powerhouse like him. If a larger group manages to come back, he could very well be part of it.

Enough names have been mentioned. Definitely not an easy stage to win or to predict.

Six years ago, the now-retired Caleb Ewan claimed a nail-biting sprint victory over Dylan Groenewegen in Toulouse. The finale back then, however, was considerably easier.