Tour de France stage 11 preview: Can Merlier complete his hat-trick?
After a demanding day, the focus shifts back to the fastest riders in the peloton. Stage 11 from Vichy to Nevers is not entirely flat, but the route offers the sprinters a clear opportunity to fight for victory.
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Stage 11 | Vichy - Nevers (160.96km)
Key information:
- Start: 14:05 (CET)
- Estimated Finish: 17:31 (CET)
- Stage type: flat
- Stage length: 160.96km
- Elevation gain: 1311m
Follow stage 11 live at Domestique with our live reporting.
Route
Stage 11 follows a familiar formula. Much like stages 7 and 8, the route contains few serious obstacles and appears designed to produce a bunch sprint.
The early kilometres include an intermediate sprint and a fourth category climb, but neither should trouble the main sprint contenders. The Côte de Billy Chavannes, the final classified climb of the day, comes with 37.5 kilometres remaining. At 1.2 kilometres and an average gradient of 5.4 per cent, it is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the race.
A strong breakaway may still try to disrupt the sprinters’ plans, particularly if the peloton hesitates. However, with several teams expected to commit to a sprint, the escapees will face a difficult task.
The final kilometres are relatively uncomplicated. A gentle chicane with just over one kilometre remaining should be taken at full speed, before the riders enter a wide finishing straight in Nevers. Positioning will remain crucial, but the stage is likely to be decided by pure acceleration and peak power.
Key points
- Intermediate sprint - 133.5km to go
- Côte de Billionniere | 4th category - 900m at 5.9% - 128.5km to go
- Côte de Billy-Chavannes | 4th category - 1.2km at 5.4% - 37.5km to go
Favourites
With a parcours like this, and based on what we saw in stages 7 and 8, everything points towards Tim Merlier. The Soudal Quick-Step sprinter has so far looked like the fastest man in the peloton and once again starts as the rider to beat.
In stage 8, he managed to recover from a difficult position and still produce a winning acceleration. He cannot rely on that every time, however, and his rivals will be ready to take advantage if he becomes boxed in or loses the wheel of his leadout.
Biniam Girmay has also shown impressive speed, although the NSN rider has yet to complete a completely unobstructed sprint. Despite receiving strong support from his leadout, he has repeatedly found himself boxed in or forced to change direction.
The wide finishing straight in Nevers could finally give him the space to show his true speed.
Decathlon CMA CGM immediately took its first opportunity with Olav Kooij, who won stage 5. His performances since then have been less convincing. He was completely out of position in stage 7 and could not match Merlier or Girmay in stage 8.
Stage 11 offers him another chance to confirm the quality he showed earlier in the race.
Jasper Philipsen has not yet looked like himself in the sprint finishes of this Tour. At his best, the Alpecin-Premier Tech leader remains one of the strongest sprinters in the WorldTour.
A clean leadout and an open road in the final metres could be enough to bring him back into contention, while the rest day may also have helped him reset.
Pavel Bittner arrived at the Tour with limited preparation after injuring his knee in a crash at the Four Days of Dunkirk, but the Picnic PostNL sprinter appears to be improving with every stage. Nevers could be the place where he begins to rediscover his best form.
XDS Astana has executed its leadouts for Max Kanter with impressive precision. Kanter has regularly entered the final metres in an excellent position, although he has not yet shown the speed required to challenge for victory.
Another well timed delivery could put him in contention for a podium place.
Uno-X Mobility will be hoping for more from Søren Wærenskjold. In stage 7, he briefly looked capable of winning, but he has struggled to find the same position and momentum in the other sprint finishes. When his timing and leadout come together, he has the power to finish close to the front.
Phil Bauhaus is the type of sprinter who can never be ruled out. The Bahrain Victorious rider often appears when expectations are lowest and showed encouraging speed in stage 7. A chaotic or less controlled finish could work in his favour.
Jayco AlUla took a calculated risk by selecting Pascal Ackermann, but the German has shown enough speed to justify his place. His results have not yet reflected his performances, and he may need to launch his sprint earlier if he wants to challenge the fastest riders.
Lidl-Trek has one of the leading candidates for the green jersey in Mads Pedersen, but collecting points in the flat sprint stages will be essential to his ambitions. He has yet to make a significant impact in a traditional bunch sprint during this Tour, so he will be eager to change that in Nevers.
Other riders to watch include Fernando Gaviria of Caja Rural - Seguros RGA, Huub Artz of Lotto Intermarché, Clément Russo of Groupama FDJ-United, Rick Pluimers of Tudor, and Milan Fretin of Cofidis.
Domestique Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Merlier
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Girmay, Kooij
⭐⭐⭐ Philipsen, Bittner, Kanter
⭐⭐ Waerenskjold, Bauhaus, Ackermann, Pedersen
⭐ Gaviria, Artz, Russo, Pluimers, Fretin
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