Tour de France stage 15 preview: Will Pogacar bless the breakaway in another hard mountain stage?

Fatigue is beginning to take its toll, making the rest day a welcome prospect, but first the riders face another demanding mountain stage.

Key information:

• Start: 13:30 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:24 (CET)
• Stage type: Mountain
• Stage length: 183.86km
• Elevation gain: 3383m

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The opening kilometres immediately favour aggressive racing. The first 22 kilometres rise gradually over rolling roads, giving potential breakaway riders an early opportunity to establish a move.

After a short descent and a brief valley section, the peloton reaches the Côte des Rousses, a third category climb of 6.9 kilometres at 5.3 per cent. 

The road continues to rise gently for another eight kilometres after the official summit, making the opening hour more demanding than the profile initially suggests.

A long and shallow descent follows of 32km at -2% follow before the race enters a rolling 55 kilometre section. Any strong breakaway that has formed by this point will have the terrain to build a substantial advantage, particularly if the general classification teams are unwilling to commit to a chase.

The race changes character inside the final 50 kilometres. The Col de la Croisette measures only 4.6 kilometres, but its average gradient of 11.2 per cent makes it one of the toughest climbs of the day. Its position may limit its tactical importance, although it could still reduce both the peloton and the breakaway before the decisive finale.

Following a technical descent, the riders tackle the Côte du Mont, 2.9 kilometres at 7.2 per cent. A final stretch of descending and flatter roads then leads to the foot of Plateau de Solaison.

The Plateau de Solaison is 11.1 kilometres long at an average of 9.1 per cent. The first 4.8 kilometres are especially severe, averaging 10.2 per cent, while the remaining 6.3 kilometres continue at 8.3 per cent. 

There is little opportunity to recover, making it a sustained test rather than a climb defined by short accelerations.

Key points

• Intermediate sprint - 167km to go
• Côte des Rousses | 3rd category - 6.9km at 5.3% - 147km to go
• Col de la Crosette | 1st category - 4.6km at 11.2% - 47.5km to go
• Plateau de Solaison | Hors catégorie - 11.1km at 9.1% - 0km to go

Predicting whether the stage will favour the breakaway or the general classification riders is difficult. 

UAE Team Emirates-XRG controlled stage 14 with the stage win in mind, although Florian Vermeersch appeared to be protected during parts of the day. Whether that was because he was struggling or saving energy for Sunday could shape how much support Tadej Pogačar has before the final climb.

Many of the strongest breakaway candidates also spent considerable energy on stage 14. With a rest day to follow, however, there is little reason for the leading teams to hold back. Riders can afford to empty themselves on Plateau de Solaison, increasing the likelihood of another confrontation between the favourites.

If the stage is decided by the general classification group, Tadej Pogačar is the obvious favourite. He was more isolated than usual on the Col du Haag, but still proved to have more left than the others and won comfortably. Plateau de Solaison may suit him even better. It is a steady and uncompromising climb with almost no respite, rewarding the rider who can sustain the highest pace for the longest period.

That type of effort should also appeal to Isaac del Toro. The Mexican climbs with the measured rhythm of a pure diesel but still possesses a sharp finish. His tactical position also remains valuable. If Pogačar attacks, Del Toro can sit behind the other podium contenders rather than contribute to the chase.

Jonas Vingegaard will hope the longer and steadier ascent allows him to produce a more convincing performance. He took responsibility for setting the pace on the Col du Haag after Pogačar had lost most of his teammates, which may have contributed to Paul Seixas and Del Toro returning to his wheel. On Plateau de Solaison, the Dane should have a better opportunity to distance the riders competing for the lower podium places.

Paul Seixas delivered one of the strongest performances of stage 14. The Frenchman followed the key accelerations before bridging back to Vingegaard near the summit. Fatigue may become a greater factor as the Tour progresses, particularly for a 19 year old riding his first edition, but he has so far shown few signs of decline.

Juan Ayuso remains firmly in the podium battle. He often appears uncomfortable early on climbs, yet repeatedly limits his losses by maintaining his own pace. Plateau de Solaison should provide another indication of whether that is a deliberate strategy or a sign that he is approaching his limit.

Mattias Skjelmose also remains well placed overall, sitting 2:31 from the virtual podium. The expectation is that he may begin to lose ground in the longer mountain stages, although it remains unclear whether that moment will arrive on Sunday or later in the Alps.

Remco Evenepoel produced an unusual but effective ride on the Col du Haag. He was dropped when Vingegaard increased the pace but recovered strongly after the summit, eventually finishing only four seconds behind the Dane. It was a performance built on an accurate understanding of his own limits. 

Plateau de Solaison removes the descent and flatter finish that helped him recover that time, but its long, steady gradient may suit him better than the more explosive climb on stage 14.

Florian Lipowitz has yet to show a clear moment of weakness. The German lacks the finishing speed of several other contenders, which may reduce his chances of winning the stage, but the sustained nature of the final climb should suit him. His best performances may still come during the final week.

Lenny Martinez is quietly putting together an impressive general classification campaign. He has never previously completed a strong overall ride in a Grand Tour, but a top ten finish in Paris would represent a significant step forward.

The breakaway also contains several serious contenders. Richard Carapaz was one of the strongest attackers on stage 14 and is unlikely to be discouraged by the effort. He has never been reluctant to attack on consecutive days and should again be among the most dangerous riders if a move is allowed to build an advantage.

His EF Education-EasyPost teammate Ben Healy improved noticeably as temperatures dropped. After struggling in the heat earlier in the Tour, he looked much closer to his best on Saturday. He may support Carapaz again, but his form could also justify riding for his own opportunity.

Tobias Halland Johannessen was one of the standout riders from the stage 14 breakaway. The Norwegian Uno-X Mobility rider has developed a habit of using attacking moves to regain time in the overall standings. The peloton has given breakaways little freedom so far, but he is likely to continue searching for an opportunity.

Netcompany-Ineos has fully committed to stage victories, making Thymen Arensman another leading candidate. He looked strong before a puncture disrupted his challenge on stage 14. Having won two Tour stages last year, he has already shown that he can convert a mountain breakaway into victory.

Egan Bernal gives the team a second option. Despite arriving from the Giro d’Italia, the Colombian has looked increasingly competitive. If Bernal and Arensman both make the breakaway, Ineos could use their numerical advantage in the final part of the stage.

Yannis Voisard is a more speculative choice but an intriguing one. The Tudor rider stayed with the favourites group for a long time on the Col du Haag. A place in the breakaway could allow him to turn that climbing form into a notable result.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Pogacar

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Carapaz, Johannessen

⭐⭐⭐  Vingegaard, Arensman, Voisard

⭐⭐  Del Toro, Seixas, Ayuso, Evenepoel

⭐  Lipowitz, Bernal, Skjelmose, Martinez, Healy