Tour de France stage 18 preview: An Alpine appetiser before Alpe d’Huez

The stage serves as the opening act for two exceptionally difficult days in the high mountains. That could persuade the general classification contenders to conserve energy, creating an inviting opportunity for a breakaway.

However, stage 18 should not be underestimated. With almost 4,000 metres of climbing and an uphill finish at Orcières Merlette, the winner will still need strength, endurance and tactical awareness.

Key information:

• Start: 12:50 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:12 (CET)
• Stage type: mountain
• Stage length: 185.24km
• Elevation gain: 3831m

Follow stage 18 live at Domestique with our live reporting.

The opening 25 kilometres are largely flat, giving riders an initial opportunity to establish the day’s breakaway before the road begins to rise towards the Côte d’Engins.

The official climb measures 11.8 kilometres at an average gradient of 5.5 per cent, but the road continues uphill for another 15.5 kilometres at around 2 per cent. Taken together, the ascent covers 27.2 kilometres at approximately 3.5 per cent. It is ideal terrain for a large and powerful group to move clear.

An 18 kilometre descent follows. As was the case during stage 17, the descent also contains a sharp rise of one kilometre at roughly 7 per cent. That could provide another launchpad for riders who miss the initial move or want to reduce the size of the group.

After a valley section of just over 10 kilometres, the race reaches the Côte de Monteynard. The second category climb is 10.8 kilometres long at 5 per cent. A brief plateau and descent lead almost immediately onto the uncategorised Col de la Festinière, which measures 3.2 kilometres at 5.1 per cent.

The riders then face around 10 kilometres of predominantly downhill roads before reaching the Côte des Terrasses, a 3.8 kilometre climb at 6.1 per cent.

Although there are no classified climbs during the following 50 kilometres, the terrain remains constantly undulating. Maintaining a high pace will be difficult, particularly for riders who have already spent much of the day in the breakaway.

The finale begins on the Côte de Saint-Léger-les-Mélèzes, which averages 6.6 per cent across 2.8 kilometres. A short descent and a five kilometre valley section then lead to the final ascent.

Orcières Merlette is 10.5 kilometres long at an average gradient of 6 per cent. It is not the steepest summit finish of the Tour, but after a long and demanding day, the climb should expose any weakness.

• Côte d'Engins | 1st category - 11.8km at 5.5% - 149km to go
• Côte de Monteynard | 2nd category - 10.8km at 5% - 93km to go
• Côte des Terrases | 3rd category - 3.8km at 6.1% - 73km to go
• Intermediate sprint - 56km to go
• Côte de Saint-Léger-de-Mélèzes| 3rd category - 2.8km at 6.% - 19km to go
• Orcières-Merlette | 1st category - 10.5km at 6% - 0km to go

With two much harder mountain stages still to come, stage 18 appears well suited to a breakaway.

The opening half of the race offers repeated opportunities for attacks, while none of the early climbs is selective enough to exclude the stronger rouleurs and all rounders. A large group could therefore form before being gradually reduced on the road towards Orcières Merlette.

The main question is how much freedom the peloton is prepared to allow. Teams without a realistic general classification objective will view this as one of their final opportunities to win a stage, while the leading contenders may prefer to save their resources for the decisive Alpine battles ahead.

A breakaway victory is the most likely outcome, but the final climb remains difficult enough for the favourites to test one another if the pace becomes aggressive.

Few riders fit the profile of a third week breakaway specialist better than Richard Carapaz. The EF Education-EasyPost rider appears to have targeted this stage and has already shown that his form is strong. His position in the general classification should also give him the freedom to attack. With his climbing ability, aggressive racing style and sharp finish, he has all the qualities required to win in Orcières Merlette.

After deliberately losing time during stage 15, Tobias Halland Johannessen can now focus entirely on stage victories. The Un- X Mobility leader has continued to show strong climbing legs and should be one of the most dangerous riders if he makes the breakaway.

So far, the performances have been better than the results for Valentin Paret Peintre. The Soudal Quick-Step climber has regularly looked strong, but the right opportunity has yet to arrive. This route suits his explosive style, while his finishing speed could prove decisive in a small group.

Another rider approaching the stage in excellent condition is Harold Tejada. The XDS Astana rider narrowly lost to Mauro Schmid in a two rider sprint on stage 13 and will see this as an opportunity to make amends.

Once again, Thymen Arensman has reached a high level in the Tour after also racing the Giro d’Italia. The Netcompany-Ineos rider won two Tour stages last year and appears capable of adding another victory if he is given the freedom to join the early moves.

His victory on stage 13 is unlikely to be the final time Mauro Schmid features in this Tour. The Jayco AlUla rider also impressed on the road to Plateau de Solaison, where he survived much longer than expected on terrain that did not perfectly suit him. The gentler gradients of stage 18 should be more favourable, while his sprint makes him dangerous if a small group arrives together.

Despite riding with a broken rib, Lennert Van Eetvelt continues to perform at a remarkably high level. The Lotto-Intermarché rider is well suited to this profile and has the attacking mentality needed to make an impact in an unpredictable stage.

Movistar has several options, starting with Javier Romo. He looked like the strongest rider in the breakaway on stage 10 before crashing later in the day. That incident disrupted the rest of his second week, but a fully recovered Romo would be one of the leading candidates on this terrain.

A strong time trial has also placed Pablo Castrillo firmly among the riders to watch. He recorded the seventh fastest climbing time, confirming that his form is moving in the right direction. Since he lacks a powerful sprint, he will probably need to attack before the finish.

The general classification ambitions of Antonio Tiberi have not materialised, but that could give him the freedom to chase a stage victory. With teammate Lenny Martinez now seventh overall, Bahrain Victorious can allow Tiberi to race more aggressively. His form appears to be improving as the Tour progresses.

Other riders to watch include Matteo Jorgenson and Bruno Armirail of Visma | Lease a Bike, Ion Izagirre of Cofidis, Egan Bernal of Netcompany-Ineos, and Marco Frigo of NSN.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Carapaz

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Johannessen, V. Paret-Peintre

⭐⭐⭐  Tejada, Arensman, Schmid  

⭐⭐  Van Eetvelt, Romo, Tiberi, Castrillo

⭐  Jorgenson, Izagirre, Bernal, Frigo, Armirail