Tour de France stage 21 preview - The grand finale of this Tour with a triple Montmartre

After a one-year break, the traditional final stage in the capital makes its return, but this time with a twist. To celebrate the 50th anniversary of this iconic finale, and taking inspiration from the 2024 Olympic road race in Paris, the peloton has to climb the Côte de la Butte Montmartre three times.

While stage 21 has long been a guaranteed bunch sprint, this year’s triple ascent of the Montmartre hill could shake up that script entirely. 

Start: 16:25 CET
Estimated arrival: 19:35 CET
Length stage: 132.2km 
Elevation gain: 1047m

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Amid the ceremonial rituals, two fourth-category climbs still await on the road to Paris.

After the Côte du Pavé des Gardes, the riders enter Paris and take on four laps on the Champs-Élysées.

After that, there are three laps of 16.8 km, which include the climb up to Montmartre.

This cobbled climb, comparable to a tough climb in the Flemish Ardennes, will play a major role in this final stage. The riders have to tackle it three times, the last time with 6.1km to go. 

39.6, 22.8 and 6.1 km to go
4th category

The first part of the climb is a bit different from the Olympic road race, an extra corner is added, which will stretch the peloton even more at the start of the climb. The rest of the climb is exactly the same.

From the top, it’s only 6 km to go, mostly downhill and quite straight on, they’ll be on the Champs-Élysées in no time.

In the last 3 km, you mostly encounter flattened cobblestones, like the ones we’re used to here. There’s a sharp turn with 2.7km to go.

The final corner is 700 metres from the finish.

The mighty Champs-Élysées

Most weather models indicate a chance of rain between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., which means there could be some (light) showers during the early part of the stage. After that, it’s expected to dry up. There is a possibility that the stage could be neutralised if conditions become too dangerous, but it's too early to go into detail about that now.

In the final stretch, the wind will be a cross-headwind.

I'm definitely looking forward to this grand finale. With the addition of the climb to Montmartre, there are more contenders for the win and the podium, and several different scenarios are possible. Controlling this stage is not easy.

My main scenario is still a sprint, but with a reduced group. I'm putting Meeus forward as the top favourite in that scenario. He climbed better than Milan this week (both in Pontarlier and Valence) and he would have won in Valence if he launched his sprint before Milan. If Milan survives, Meeus is a very big opponent. His team includes Van Dijke and Pithie, riders who can also perform well here, but I’d primarily have them work for Meeus, to close gaps in the final 6km. If you don’t want Meeus to be there at the end, you need to make the final hard.

Two strong sprinters who showed good form here also put in a big effort today: Stewart and Groves. Still, I think they’ll be in the mix for a top result. Just like Lund Andresen.

Arnaud De Lie has been struggling the past few days. He was a contender, but with the legs he showed in stages 19 and 20, it’s going to be a tough task. Same goes for Askey and Girmay after their crashes.

Merlier's chances have obviously diminished with this new route. If they explode on this course, he’s hopeless, and even in the best-case scenario, I still see him getting beaten by someone with more strength left in their legs.

Which teams will force the pace on the Montmartre? Visma and Van Aert, who’s still chasing his first stage win in the Tour since 2022. The course suits him well, but everything will need to go perfectly for him to win. He needs to get rid of faster riders.

Will we see a bit of spielerei from Pogacar? He’s already done it without Montmartre, so you can bet on it. And Vingegaard will follow him! This only applies if there's no neutralization and the roads aren't dangerously wet. In Pogacar's team, there's another rider who might get his chance here: Narváez.

Trek has some strong riders too, Simmons, Skujinš, Stuyven, Nys, who can all ride aggressively. I'm curious whether they’ll cover attacks for Milan or start launching their own.

We'll probably also see fireworks from Frenchmen Alaphilippe and Laurance, they like to attack at the wrong moment, which means they will attack on the first Montmartre climb. Besides Laurance, Ineos also has an option in Watson. I expect the British team to be active in this stage. The chances of a successful attack depend on whether there's a gap and the attackers don't start looking at each other. You can't hesitate for a second - otherwise, the peloton will catch up.

Every year, a few brave attackers try their luck around the middle of the stage, and this year, they might just have a better chance than usual. Riders in this category include Abrahamsen, Asgreen, Powless, Campenaerts and Wright. It will be much harder to control everything this year.

Watch out for a smart move in the final kilometers, after the final Montmartre, when the group loses cohesion.