2026 Milan-San Remo preview - Another Pogacar vs. Van der Poel showdown for the ages?

For much of its history, Milan-Sanremo belonged to the sprinters. The long, flat run along the Ligurian coast made it notoriously difficult to break the race apart, even with the Cipressa and Poggio looming late in the day. In recent years, however, the dynamic has shifted. The pace on the climbs has increased and the attacks have become more aggressive and earlier.

That trend was clear again in 2025. The early break was kept on a tight leash as the peloton rolled steadily towards the coast, with little real drama until the final hour. On the Cipressa, UAE Team Emirates-XRG raised the tempo, immediately launching Tadej Pogačar’s attack. In the end, only Mathieu van der Poel was able to follow the Slovenian’s repeated accelerations, with Filippo Ganna hanging on just behind.

On the run towards the Poggio, Ganna managed to rejoin the leading pair. As the climb began, the same pattern unfolded. Pogačar threw everything at it, but Van der Poel never panicked. He followed every move and even attempted to go clear himself near the top. Ganna once again rode at his own pace, keeping the two leaders within reach.

On the descent, the Italian closed the gap, setting up a three man sprint on Via Roma. Van der Poel timed his effort perfectly, powering clear to take the win, with Ganna second and Pogačar forced to settle for third once again.

Several former winners are expected on the start line:

Mathieu van der Poel – 2025, 2023
Jasper Philipsen – 2024
Matej Mohorič – 2022
Wout van Aert – 2020
Julian Alaphilippe – 2019
Michał Kwiatkowski - 2017

Key information: 

• Date - Saturday, March 21
• Distance - 298 km
• Start Location - Pavia
• Finish Location - Via Roma, Sanremo
• Start time (CET) - 10:00
• Expected finish (CET) - 16:55 (average time schedule)

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The Milan-Sanremo route is one of the most recognisable in cycling, and for 2026 it follows a familiar script with a few modern tweaks. The race covers 298 kilometres and, for the third year running, starts in Pavia rather than Milan. From there, the peloton heads southwest over largely flat terrain, settling into a long opening phase that rarely decides the outcome but steadily builds tension.

The first point of note is the Passo del Turchino, once the decisive climb of the race but now more of a reference point than a launchpad. Positioned roughly halfway through the route, it still serves to stretch the peloton before the descent towards the Ligurian coast at Voltri.

From there, the tempo gradually rises as the Tre Capi approach: Capo Mele, Capo Cervo and Capo Berta. These short climbs are not selective on their own, but they wear down the bunch and sharpen positioning ahead of the decisive phase.

With around forty kilometres to go, the Cipressa marks the beginning of the finale. The climb is 5.6 kilometres long at an average of 4.1 percent and often sees early moves from riders looking to anticipate the Poggio. However, the ten kilometre stretch between the Cipressa and the final climb frequently allows groups to come back together.

The Poggio begins with just under nine kilometres remaining. It measures 3.7 kilometres at an average gradient of 3.7 percent, with ramps rising to around 8 percent near the summit. The narrow road and technical nature of the climb make positioning crucial, and it is here that the key attacks are launched.

A fast and technical descent follows, featuring tight corners and little margin for error. From the bottom, the road flattens out for the final kilometres into Sanremo, with the finish on Via Roma arriving quickly and often favouring those who timed their effort to perfection.

It is still a little early to draw firm conclusions about the weather, but forecasts are beginning to take shape and will be updated as more clarity emerges.

As recently as yesterday, the leading Italian weather models pointed in different directions, with one suggesting a northerly wind and the other an easterly. That uncertainty has shifted for now, with both indicating a southerly wind. Over the next 48 hours, a clearer picture is expected, and any developments will be reflected in this preview.

One element does appear to have stabilised. Earlier projections from both sources included a chance of rain, but those have now been revised. At this stage, the expectation is for dry conditions, a scenario that will be welcomed across the peloton.

Wind direction, however, remains the key variable. An easterly could significantly shape how the race unfolds, particularly on the run along the coast and into the final climbs. It is no secret that certain teams, including UAE Team Emirates-XRG, would benefit from that scenario as they look to animate the race before the Poggio.

Mathieu van der Poel starts as the clear reference point. The Dutchman has already won Milan-Sanremo twice, in 2023 and 2025, and arguably shaped the 2024 edition as well while riding in support of Jasper Philipsen. His explosiveness on the Poggio makes him less dependent on race conditions than most. Even when Tadej Pogačar has pushed the pace to its limits, Van der Poel has shown he can follow and respond, as he did last year when he not only matched the Slovenian but briefly went on the offensive himself near the summit.

His early season form only reinforces that status. At Tirreno-Adriatico, he looked sharper than twelve months ago, and the milder conditions will likely aid his recovery heading into Sanremo. With just six days between the two races, freshness matters, but Van der Poel appears to have timed his build-up well. Whether the wind favours attackers or not, he remains exceptionally difficult to distance.

Alpecin-Premier Tech also arrive with depth. Jasper Philipsen has yet to win this season but showed strong condition at Tirreno before a late crash, from which he appears to have recovered. In a reduced sprint scenario, he remains one of the fastest finishers in the race. Kaden Groves offers an additional option. Fifth in last year’s edition, he proved capable of surviving the climbs and sprinting for the podium. Although his preparation was disrupted after a crash at Omloop, his recovery seems to have been swift enough to put him back in contention.

Tadej Pogačar, meanwhile, continues to chase a race that has so far eluded him. Each year, his attempts have become more refined, with increasingly aggressive moves on the Cipressa and Poggio. His chances still hinge on timing and, to some extent, the wind. A tailwind would favour his attacking style, while a more controlled race increases the likelihood of a larger group reaching Sanremo.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG arrive without some key pieces. Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez are both absent, removing important support for the Cipressa, while Brandon McNulty is recovering from a knee issue sustained at Paris-Nice. Even so, the team retains significant strength, with riders such as Isaac del Toro, Jan Christen, Felix Großschartner and Florian Vermeersch offering multiple tactical options.

There is also the possibility of a more complex approach. If UAE manage to place a second rider, such as Del Toro, over the Cipressa, they could create a scenario that forces rivals into difficult decisions. Whether riders like Van der Poel or Ganna would be willing to collaborate in such a situation remains uncertain, but it underlines the range of strategies still in play heading into the final.

Filippo Ganna is another rider who consistently delivers at Milan-Sanremo. His results do not always tell the full story, but his presence at the front of the race rarely changes. His 40th place in 2024, for example, came after cresting the Poggio in third position alongside Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel, before a mechanical on the descent ended his chances. It was a missed opportunity, particularly given the tactical options available ahead, including a teammate further up the road.

A year earlier, Ganna had already underlined his credentials by winning the sprint for second behind Van der Poel, beating both Wout van Aert and Pogačar. Last season, he was distanced on both the Cipressa and the Poggio, yet still managed to return using his time trial engine and contest the sprint on Via Roma. Few riders are able to recover in that way.

His preparation this year has been more measured. Rather than pushing to his limits at Tirreno-Adriatico, Ganna has been selective in his efforts, aiming to arrive fresher for Sanremo. It is an approach that has worked for others in the past and could leave him better equipped for the decisive phase. In his case, a small group scenario may offer the best opportunity, allowing him to attack after the descent rather than relying purely on his sprint.

Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), meanwhile, returns to a race that has often suited him. The Belgian won Milan-Sanremo in 2020 and has consistently been competitive when he has taken part, though he skipped the last two editions due to his altitude training schedule. His profile remains well suited to the demands of the race, particularly the longer, sustained efforts that define the Cipressa and Poggio.

There are, however, questions around his current level. Since his last appearance, his momentum has been disrupted by setbacks, and the race itself has become more aggressive. Positioning has also emerged as a concern. In recent races, including Tirreno-Adriatico, he has at times found himself too far back at key moments, something that is rarely forgiven in a race like this.

Tactically, Van Aert may need to be more selective. His instinct to follow every move can come at a cost, particularly in a race where energy management is critical. A more patient approach, potentially attacking after the Poggio rather than waiting for a sprint, could increase his chances. His finishing speed remains strong, but against riders like Van der Poel, it is not always decisive.

Visma also bring additional options. Matteo Jorgenson has the engine to follow a high tempo on the Cipressa, which could give the team a second presence in the finale. Matthew Brennan, meanwhile, offers a different profile, one that could come into play if the race is less selective and a larger group makes it to Sanremo.

Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) has a habit of animating races, and Milan-Sanremo is no exception. His results in La Classicissima may not immediately stand out, but context tells a different story. On his debut in 2021, he attacked on the descent of the Poggio, testing the limits of what is possible in a race that rarely rewards solo moves at that point. A year later, illness forced him out, while in 2023 he missed the race altogether after suffering a concussion at Tirreno-Adriatico.

His most convincing performance came in 2024. Pidcock was part of a late move alongside Matteo Sobrero and came within metres of pulling off a surprise victory, only to be caught on Via Roma just before the line. It was a clear indication of how his skill set can disrupt the expected scenario.

Last season, his race was compromised early when he crashed at the foot of the Cipressa. The effort required to chase back meant he was no longer in contention with the leading trio of Van der Poel, Pogačar and Ganna, though he still set one of the fastest times on the Poggio in pursuit.

For 2026, conditions could play a significant role. Pidcock’s descending ability is among the best in the peloton, and any added difficulty, particularly on wet roads, increases his chances of creating separation after the summit of the Poggio. His lighter build also makes him well suited to the repeated accelerations on both climbs, even if translating that into a winning move remains a challenge.

Romain Grégoire is another rider trending in the right direction. The Frenchman impressed last year by holding on longer than most when the decisive moves were made, only losing contact with the front trio in the closing phase. His progression has continued into this season, including a strong showing at Strade Bianche on a more demanding course.

The question is whether that development translates into an even deeper run in Milan-Sanremo. If he can remain in contact over the Poggio, he has the profile to be more than just present in the finale.

Other interesting contenders include Laurence Pithie (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), Andrea Vendrame (Jayco AlUla), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM), Søren Kragh Andersen (Lidl-Trek), Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious), and Mauro Schmid (Jayco AlUla)

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️  Van der Poel

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️  Ganna, Pogačar

⭐️⭐️⭐️  Van Aert, Pidcock, Grégoire

⭐️⭐️  Jorgenson, Brennan, Del Toro, Ciccone

⭐️  Philipsen, Pithie, Vendrame, Kragh Andersen, Mohorič