Could the wind derail Tadej Pogacar’s bid for Milan-San Remo victory?

Last year’s edition saw a rare scenario: an attack on the Cipressa that made it all the way to the finish. It was the first time since 1996, when Gabriele Colombo went long and held off the favourites to win in San Remo. While the strength of UAE Team Emirates–XRG, with riders like Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez, was crucial, the conditions played an equally important role.

A strong tailwind of around 20 km/h on the Cipressa helped stretch the race and made it possible to create decisive gaps. Without that tailwind, it is hard to imagine the same outcome. 

With a headwind, the relatively shallow gradients of the Cipressa make it much harder to break the race open, and the run towards the Poggio becomes more controlled and tactical.

As race day approaches, forecasts are becoming more consistent. Earlier in the week, predictions varied from tailwinds to crosswinds, but the latest outlook points towards a headwind on the key sections. Wind speeds are expected to be modest, around 10 km/h, but direction matters more than pure strength.

Even with relatively light winds, the difference compared to last year is significant. A 10 km/h headwind instead of a 20 km/h tailwind represents a major shift in race dynamics.

Under these conditions, a long range move from the Cipressa becomes far less likely to succeed. Instead, the race is expected to follow a more traditional pattern, with attacks on the Poggio and a larger group still in contention in the final kilometres.

That is not the scenario Tadej Pogačar would prefer. A harder, more selective race plays to his strengths, and current forecasts suggest he may need to find another way to force a decisive move. 

For many of his rivals, however, these conditions are close to ideal. The race is still likely to be selective, but without the same early damage as last year.