Pogacar faces Van der Poel and another rival in Milan-Sanremo: the wind

Last year’s edition saw a rare scenario: an attack on the Cipressa that made it all the way to the finish. It was the first time since 1996, when Gabriele Colombo went long and held off the favourites to win in San Remo. While the strength of UAE Team Emirates–XRG, with riders like Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez, was crucial, the conditions played an equally important role.

A strong tailwind of around 20 km/h on the Cipressa helped stretch the race and made it possible to create decisive gaps. Without that tailwind, it is hard to imagine the same outcome. 

With a headwind, the relatively shallow gradients of the Cipressa make it much harder to break the race open, and the run towards the Poggio becomes more controlled and tactical.

As race day gets closer, the forecasts are starting to line up. Earlier this week there was still uncertainty, with talk of tailwinds and crosswinds, but the latest outlook points to a steady southwesterly. That means a head or crosswind on the key sections. Speeds are not expected to be high, around 15 km per hour, but the direction will shape the race.

Compared to last year, the change is significant. A tailwind of around 20 km per hour helped open up the race then. This time, a headwind is more likely to keep things together and make early moves harder to sustain.

That has clear tactical consequences. A long attack from the Cipressa now looks much less likely to stick. Riders going early would be riding into the wind, making it difficult to build a decisive gap. The more probable scenario is a later selection, with moves on the Poggio and a relatively large group still in contention towards the finish.

It is not the ideal setup for Tadej Pogačar. He benefits from a hard, selective race where the field is reduced before the finale. In these conditions, he may have to be more aggressive or try something less predictable to force a split.

For others, the picture is more favourable. A controlled race increases the chance of a reduced bunch sprint, which brings the fast finishers and the traditional Sanremo specialists back into play.

So how should UAE approach this? The wind is far from ideal, especially on the Cipressa. For most of the climb, riders face a headwind, with a crosswind only on the steepest ramps where differences can be made. Once the gradient eases, the road turns into a full headwind, making it very difficult to hold any advantage.

That changes the equation. Even if riders like Tadej Pogačar or Mathieu van der Poel manage to open a gap on the steepest section, the conditions make it unlikely that move will last all the way to the top, let alone beyond.

The bigger unknown is what the race looks like at the foot of the Poggio. In recent years, conditions have often helped smaller groups get clear earlier, but this time there is no clear reference point. The race has evolved, UAE have changed the way it is ridden, and the wind adds another layer of uncertainty. It feels like new territory.

A repeat of last year, with the strongest riders riding clear on the Cipressa, cannot be ruled out entirely. The crosswind on the steepest section could still allow a small group to form. But holding that gap is another matter. A more likely outcome is a larger elite group cresting the Cipressa, with riders such as Matteo Jorgenson, Tom Pidcock, Romain Grégoire, and Wout van Aert either following closely or rejoining on the descent.

The question then becomes whether such a group would work together. History suggests it would not. With too many different interests, hesitation is almost inevitable, increasing the chances of everything coming back together before the Poggio.

That opens the door to a scenario where around thirty riders start the final climb together. It is far from certain, but it fits the conditions. And uncertainty, more than anything, is what defines this race.

What does seem clear is that the Poggio will be decisive. Unlike the Cipressa, the wind there is more of a crosswind, which tends to encourage aggressive racing. Positioning will be crucial, and the repeated accelerations are likely to favour the most explosive riders.