Roubaix weather forecast: Fast, dry conditions favour Pogacar’s history bid

In the lead up to the race, there is some rain expected, mainly on Saturday afternoon. That should take away the heavy dust that often defines a dry Roubaix, something most riders will welcome. At the same time, even a small amount of rain can make certain cobbled sectors tricky, especially early on, so caution will still be needed.

For Sunday itself, the forecast looks dry. That is good news for the riders, as few in the peloton are hoping for a repeat of a wet Roubaix. The last time that happened was in 2021, when the race, moved to October, due to COVID-19, turned into a crash heavy edition.

There is a 15km/h tailwind predicted; normally, you would think riders are glad with that, but with how Paris-Roubaix was raced in recent years, not so sure. Because this also makes for the fact that it is easier to create separation on the cobbles, as you have less wind resistance on the front, so the guy in your wheel has less of an advantage, and gets dropped more easily. 

However, for the breakaway, this isn't bad news. It's logical that more and more guys will be keen to get in the break, so this will also make for the fact that the opening hours will be raced very hard. And when the breakaway is gone, it'll be harder for the peloton to chase; it's just tougher to chase a breakaway if there is a tailwind. It'll also probably be only Alpecin-Premier Tech who will have to ride (sorry Silvan Dillier), so that'll create an interesting situation.

In the final, that same effect can favour solo efforts. Riding alone becomes slightly easier, which could again point towards a lone winner arriving in the Vélodrome André Pétrieux, something that has become more common in recent editions.

So what does this mean for Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel? A dry edition removes some of the obvious risks, but the key factor is the tailwind, which tends to reward attacking riding. That is exactly the kind of racing both riders thrive on.

It may even be Pogačar's clearest path to making history, as these conditions reduce the likelihood of a sprint finish, where he would normally be at a slight disadvantage compared to his Dutch rival.

So in these conditions, Roubaix will come down to a simple question: who can go first, and who can go hardest? And, as ever, who can stay clear of bad luck.