Five favourites for the Tour de France green jersey

The European road champion, Tim Merlier, has had a superb 2025 season so far, picking up 9 wins, 4 of those UCI WorldTour stage wins. Stage 1 into Lille is a stage already primed for Merlier, meaning he could move into the yellow jersey instead of green.

Merlier will be joined by his impressive lead-out man, Bert Van Lerberghe, with whom Merlier is interconnected, and the dynamic duo will be aiming to strike the jackpot at the Tour. What is also most impressive about Merlier in sprint finishes is his ability to glide through the pack with real elegance, able to position himself when it really matters, meaning Soudal Quick-Step don’t have to particularly ‘sacrifice’ a rider from Remco Evenepoel’s climbing unit. 

The brutal third week is going to be a big challenge for Merlier to make the time cut on certain stages, if he is able to survive the mountainous terrain, expect to see him in green on the Champs-Elysées.

Another Tour debutant, this time the 24-year-old Italian, Jonathan Milan. Milan has already displayed his talent in grand tours previously in his home tour, the Giro d’Italia, where he has accumulated 4 stage victories and two points classification jerseys. Milan performed strongly in his warm-up at the Critérium du Dauphiné, picking up a victory on stage 2 whilst demonstrating a strong climbing resistance, which, as mentioned before, will be a key skill for the riders competing for the green jersey.

Milan’s Lidl-Trek sprint train is one of the strongest within the entire Tour, with key figures in the train, the Belgian Edward Theuns and Milan’s main lead-out, the Italian, Simone Consonni. Milan has, without a doubt, demonstrated that he is one of the top three sprinters in the world, so expect to see his recognisable head bobbing sprint in numerous stages this July.

A previous winner of the green jersey in 2023, the 27-year-old Belgian, Jasper Philipsen, comes into the 2025 Tour de France off the back of ending his long victory drought at the Baloise Belgium Tour in June. It was a sense of relief for Philipsen to get the victory after he went more than 100 days without a victory. Philipsen will be looking to utilise the newfound confidence at the Tour in July as he looks to add to his sole green jersey. 

Philipsen has one of the best lead-out riders in the entire peloton with the world class, Mathieu van der Poel, who will 9/10 times, deliver Philipsen into the prime position for sprint success. Not only that, but the entire Alpecin – Deceuninck team has been renowned in recent modern Tour de France history for having teams built around sprint finishes. 

The defending green jersey holder is not to be written off. Did anybody predict that Girmay would win the green jersey last year? Girmay clearly demonstrated last year that he was able to peak at the perfect time after his results were very similar to those of this year, where he has been floating around for victories, but is not able to have the final bite to take them as of yet. His classics season featured some solid results overall with a 7th-place finish at Gent-Wevelgem, a top 15 at Paris-Roubaix and a 14th-place finish at Milan-San Remo.

Intermarché – Wanty bring a strong team in support of Girmay with riders such as Hugo Page and Laurenz Rex the key assets apart of Girmay’s sprint train.

Tadej Pogacar can be perceived as a bit of a dark horse for the green jersey of the Tour in July, simply due to the nature of the way the parcours is laid out. The majority of the sprint stages within the Tour are situated within the first and second weeks of the Tour. Even then, the ‘sprint stages’ feature numerous kickers, primed for attacks similar to what we had seen on stage 1 of the Critérium du Dauphiné, where the GC protagonists broke free and fought for the stage win.

It remains a case for Pogacar, because of the Dauphiné demolition he produced with the level he displayed, he also won the green jersey at the Dauphiné. Pogacar could quite easily win 10 stages at this Tour at a minimum and that is a scary thought to think about.

Want to get up to speed on all classifications? Check out our other previews of the key favourites:

• General classification: who are the top contenders for the yellow jersey?
• Mountain classification: breakaway success or the GC men?