‘Mas is the favourite, but Roglic never gives up’ - Nibali warns Vuelta is far from over

Mas enters the decisive part of the Vuelta with the red jersey on his shoulders and a 2:06 advantage over Felix Gall, while four time winner Roglič sits another four seconds further back.

For Nibali, the situation currently points towards the Spaniard.

“Mas is the favourite,” Nibali told La Gazzetta dello Sport. “He has a good advantage, he is in good shape and he is racing in the right way. He looks solid.”

There is also something less tangible working in Mas’ favour.

Racing on home roads and carrying the leader’s jersey has appeared to give the 31-year-old another level of belief, according to Nibali.

“You can see that since he took the lead, he has been riding with more confidence,” he said.

Nibali knows the feeling well. The Italian won the Vuelta in 2010, the first of his four Grand Tour victories, and later returned to finish second in both 2013 and 2017.

He also shared the peloton with Mas during the latter part of his career and believes his current position should not be seen as a surprise.

Mas has eight Grand Tour top ten finishes to his name, including three second places and one third place at the Vuelta.

“He is certainly not an unknown rider,” Nibali said. “He would not look out of place at all on the list of Vuelta winners.”

The Spaniard has come close before, and Nibali believes this could finally be his opportunity to finish the job.

Before Tadej Pogačar left the race, Mas had already emerged as his closest challenger and on one of the climbs managed to close the Slovenian down after he had moved clear.

“I’m rooting for him,” Nibali said.

Mas may be in control, but Nibali is far from ready to write Roglič out of the race.

The Slovenian is chasing a fifth Vuelta victory, which would move him clear of Roberto Heras as the most successful rider in the history of the race.

“Primož is a tough one, in the best possible sense,” Nibali said about the Red Bull-Bora-Hangrohe rider. “He never gives up.”

Nibali knows that persistence from personal experience.

The pair were locked in a tense general classification battle at the 2019 Giro d’Italia, where Roglič's patient and calculated racing repeatedly frustrated the Italian.

Nibali wanted Roglic to contribute more when the main contenders were forced to chase, but the Slovenian was often content to follow his rival rather than spend energy unnecessarily.

Their focus on each other ultimately helped create an opportunity for Richard Carapaz, who took control of the race and went on to win the Giro ahead of Nibali and Roglič.

That experience helps explain why Nibali remains wary of Roglič, even with more than two minutes separating the Slovenian from Mas.

Nibali also believes the current gap does not tell the full story. Roglič arrived at the Vuelta after his preparation was disrupted by a training accident, leaving the Italian to wonder how different the race might have looked under normal circumstances.

“If he had not had that accident in training, who knows,” Nibali said.

Even so, Roglič has kept himself within range, and the time trial now gives him a clear opportunity to bring the race back towards Mas.

“He will take time back in the time trial,” Nibali said.

For Nibali, that is precisely why the race remains open. If Roglič can reduce the gap against the clock, his resilience and experience could become even more significant as the Vuelta moves deeper into its final week.

Mas has so far looked stronger in the mountains, but Nibali expects the balance could shift again as fatigue begins to accumulate in the final week.

For a rider he knows from experience will keep fighting, 2:10 is not yet enough to close the door.

Roglič is not the only rider Mas has to watch. Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM) currently sits second overall at 2:06 and has again shown himself to be among the strongest climbers in the race.

Nibali was already impressed by the Austrian at the Giro, where only Jonas Vingegaard was stronger in the mountains.

His biggest test at the Vuelta is likely to come against the clock.

“If he can limit the damage in the time trial, he can play everything he has in the final stages,” Nibali said.

Gall has yet to distance Mas on the climbs, but Nibali sees no reason to assume that will remain the case deep into the third week.

“A lot can change over three weeks,” he said. “Cycling history is full of races being turned around.”

Richard Carapaz, meanwhile, appears to face a more difficult route back into contention. The Ecuadorian sits more than four minutes down and already has the Tour de France in his legs.

“It will be difficult for Carapaz,” Nibali said. “He can win in the mountains, but it will be much harder for him to make up big gaps.”

The gaps may suggest a clear hierarchy for now, but Nibali has spent enough time at the sharp end of Grand Tours to know how little certainty that can offer in the final week.