Patrick Lefevere narrows Milan-Sanremo down to one inevitable outcome
Patrick Lefevere has made his position clear ahead of Milan-Sanremo, and it leaves little room for interpretation. In his latest column in Het Nieuwsblad, the Belgian former team boss narrows the outcome of cycling’s longest Monument down to a head to head between Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar, with one clear favourite in his eyes.
Drawing on recent form and race dynamics, Lefevere argues in Het Nieuwsblad that this edition of Sanremo is less open than it may appear, despite the race’s reputation for unpredictability.
“The riders make the race, that’s a cliché as big as a house, but in Italy they don’t always believe that,” he writes, pointing to how organisers have historically tried to influence outcomes through course tweaks. Yet even without decisive climbs like the Pompeïana or Le Manie, he insists the scenario remains straightforward.
“Even without Pompeïana or Le Manie, only two riders can win today. It will be Mathieu van der Poel or Tadej Pogačar. Anyone else? I don’t see it happening.”
His confidence stems largely from what he witnessed earlier this season. “The Van der Poel I saw in Tirreno is, in my opinion, the strongest ever. Especially that second stage to Martinsicuro was out of the book,” he notes. According to Lefevere, Van der Poel’s composure under pressure sets him apart. “Van Aert reacts twice to an attack in the final kilometres, Van der Poel stays seated and wins because he dares to lose. A masterclass.”
While Pogačar remains the obvious challenger, Lefevere questions whether even the Slovenian can crack Van der Poel on this terrain. “Honestly, I don’t see how Pogačar will beat this Van der Poel. There are many factors working against him. In a race along the coast, headwind is not a small thing. Even Pogačar is not above that.”
He also highlights tactical uncertainties within Pogačar's team. “UAE can replace the punchers evenly, but the approach to the Cipressa is a strange beast. I’ve heard dozens of hypotheses in the Quick Step years. Ride left, ride right, stay in the middle. But that formula does not exist. It is a combination of feeling, legs and a bit of luck.”
According to Lefevere, positioning errors could again prove decisive. “Last year the positioning of UAE on the Cipressa was collectively wrong. With their current selection, with many real climbers, I wouldn’t dare say that won’t happen again.”
Even if Pogačar manages to animate the race earlier than usual, Lefevere remains sceptical. “In the best case, Pogačar can really set his team to work on the Cipressa. In the past I didn’t see that happen. But Van der Poel is used to solving a lot on his own.”
His final verdict is blunt. “My prediction: if it still has to happen for Pogačar on the Poggio, it will no longer happen.”
Join our WhatsApp service
Be first to know. Subscribe to Domestique on WhatsApp for free and stay up to date with all the latest from the world of cycling.
