‘Roglic will only get better’ as Red Bull reveal plan for fifth Vuelta a España victory

Primož Roglič may be sitting second overall at the Vuelta a España, but Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe are content with how the race is unfolding.

With Enric Mas wearing the red jersey, Red Bull are happy to let Movistar carry the responsibility while Roglič waits for the terrain that could ultimately decide the Vuelta.

Speaking to Het Laatste Nieuws, Red Bull sports director Sven Vanthourenhout revealed that the team would be perfectly comfortable reaching the second rest day in the same position, even if Roglič were to lose more time before then.

“I would sign right now for being in the same situation on the second rest day,” Vanthourenhout said. “The gap to Mas could even grow by another minute and a half. Then it is up to us to strike in the final week.”

It is a patient approach built around one central belief: Roglič should get stronger as the race goes on.

At 36, few riders in the peloton understand the final week of a Grand Tour better. Roglič has already won the Vuelta four times and, according to Vanthourenhout, knows exactly what his body will feel like when fatigue begins to dictate the race.

“He knows perfectly well what is still to come, how his legs will feel in the third week and how to deal with the fatigue,” Vanthourenhout explained. “Most importantly, he knows that in the final week he will at least be at the same level he is now, and probably improve another percentage point.”

That confidence represents a dramatic change from the mood inside Red Bull before the race.

Roglič travelled to the Vuelta with serious uncertainty over his condition after crashing during his preparation. He spent roughly ten days unable to train properly, with most of those days completely off the bike. When he did ride, his sessions rarely lasted more than 90 minutes.

For a rider targeting a Grand Tour, it was far from ideal.

The concern was understandable. Roglič had not produced the kind of stage race performance earlier in the season that definitively showed he was still capable of reaching his previous Grand Tour level.

“Primož came here with enormous doubts, and we also had no idea how good he really was,” Vanthourenhout admitted. “He hadn’t shown in any stage race this year that he was still the Roglič of old, and then there was that crash a few weeks before the Vuelta.”

There were, however, reasons for optimism. Vanthourenhout had spent several days with Roglič at an altitude camp in Livigno in July, where the Slovenian was already at race weight and showing strong form before the crash. Even during the ten days in which his training was heavily restricted, he remained disciplined.

His performances in Spain have since suggested that much of that condition survived. Roglič also gave Red Bull encouragement in the opening time trial. He lost most of his time through the technical sections, where he chose not to take unnecessary risks, but was among the strongest GC riders when the course demanded pure power.

“We’re not afraid of that time trial,” Vanthourenhout said, referring to the 32 kilometre individual time trial in the final week of the Vuelta.

On paper, Roglič should gain time there. Vanthourenhout, however, believes another stage could be even more decisive.

Stage 20 contains close to 4,900 metres of climbing and comes on the penultimate day of the race.

“That is the monster stage,” he said. “Until then we will have to wait. But the cards are better than we dared to dream before the race.”

The complexion of the Vuelta changed dramatically following Tadej Pogačar's crash, but Roglič had apparently refused to rule out overall victory even before the race opened up.

Vanthourenhout acknowledged that it is difficult to start a Grand Tour believing victory is realistic when Pogačar is on the start line.

Roglic saw things differently.

During Red Bull’s meetings before the race, he reminded the team that nothing had been decided yet.

“Everything still has to be raced,” was Roglič's message.

It was vintage Roglič. Reserved, difficult to read and unwilling to make grand predictions, but never prepared to concede a race before it has happened.

Vanthourenhout has discovered the same personality while working with him inside the team.

“He has a special character, but in a good way,” he said. “I don’t find him difficult to work with.”

The Belgian admits Roglič can be evasive when discussing his condition, even with his own team. When important decisions need to be made, however, Vanthourenhout says the former ski jumper listens.

That becomes particularly important around recovery and the small details that can decide a three week race.

“My goal is not for Primož to like me,” Vanthourenhout said. “I try to do my job as well as possible. When it comes to details such as recovery, I keep pushing until I know he is fully committed to what we are doing and to his teammates.”

For now, that commitment is translating into exactly the kind of Vuelta Red Bull had hoped Roglič could ride.

The team see no reason to force the race, especially with the Slovenian still improving as the Vuelta goes on.

“We have a leader who knows what it takes to win the Vuelta and who is getting better step by step,” Vanthourenhout said. “All the data shows that as well.”

Whether that will ultimately be enough to beat Mas and the other contenders remains unanswered. But after arriving in Spain with serious doubts over his form, Roglič is in position to fight for a record extending fifth Vuelta title.