The Pogacar paradox: Why Van der Poel's biggest rival is his best ally at Milan-Sanremo

We’ve grown accustomed to describing Tadej Pogačar as his own biggest rival these days, and across most of the calendar, that’s true. A rare exception comes on Saturday at Milan-Sanremo. The race has proven to be the most intractable conundrum of Pogačar’s career over the years, but the bewitching subtlety of the parcours is only part of the problem. A bigger impediment has been the presence of Mathieu van der Poel, an opponent perfectly suited to the demands of the course.

Pogačar has tried just about everything to solve the riddle of Sanremo over the years. In 2022 and 2023, he went out too hard on the Poggio. In 2024, his UAE Team Emirates-XRG went too easy on the Cipressa. Last year, he finally got it just right by striking out by himself on the Cipressa, but he still ran squarely into the same brick wall as before. The most astonishing onslaught at La Primavera in recent memory still couldn’t shake off Van der Poel, and the Dutchman cruised to sprint victory on the Via Roma. 

According to the roll of honour, that was Van der Poel’s second victory in three years, but in truth, it was the completion of a hat-trick. In 2024, after all, Van der Poel’s resistance of Pogačar over the top of the Poggio – and his policing of the front group over the other side – teed up Alpecin teammate Jasper Philipsen’s sprint win on the Via Roma. Philipsen won the race, but VDP was very clearly the day’s MVP.

For the past three years, the road to victory at Sanremo hasn’t run along the Via Aureliana, it’s run through Mathieu van der Poel. For all Pogačar’s gifts, that remains the case in 2026. If Pogačar is finally going to triumph on the Riviera on Saturday, he will have to find a way around Van der Poel.

Some detected a note of resignation last weekend when Van der Poel told Sporza that it was “only a matter of time” before Pogačar wins Milan-Sanremo. On the final day of Tirreno-Adriatico, however, he delivered a performance that suggested Pogačar’s wait might last a little longer yet, splitting the Tirreno peloton on the climb of Ripatransone and drilling on the front for 30km seemingly for the sheer hell of it. 

A crushing Strade Bianche win aside, Pogačar has eschewed racing so far this year, preferring to warm up for Milan-Sanremo by training on the course and posting his eye-watering record time on the Cipressa. Van der Poel’s exhibition at Ripatransone had the feel of a very public training interval and a tacit response to Pogačar’s Strava flexing. Despite the presence of Filippo Ganna, Wout van Aert and Tom Pidcock, both men already know they will decide Milan-Sanremo between them.

Milan-Sanremo has always been a race apart, but its status as an outlier has been accentuated still further over the past fifteen years or so. As a rule, the routes of the Classics have become more demanding of late – think the Kwaremont-Paterberg finale at the Tour of Flanders or the longer Strade Bianche – but Milan-Sanremo has resisted that trend. 

Ironically, back in 2014, RCS Sport added the stiff Pompeiana to the finale in a bid to make the race more selective between the Cipressa and the Poggio, but weather-damaged roads meant the climb was never used. Mercifully, the idea was quietly shelved in the years since. Milan-Sanremo remains a race of quick wits as much as of strong legs, even if there is a growing sense that Pogačar will eventually succeed in winning the argument with raw power.

Standing in his way is Van der Poel, who seems to be the perfect prototype of a Milan-Sanremo winner. He climbs well enough to resist the most vicious accelerations on the Cipressa and Poggio, and he sprints faster than anybody else who can survive them. For good measure, he descends like he’s on rails. 

Then again, Peter Sagan had all those qualities in spades too. He repeatedly lined up as the favourite for Milan-Sanremo and he finished in the top six no fewer than eight times, yet he never won the Classic that suited him the most. On occasion, Sagan was hamstrung by his own decision-making, and sometimes, like in 2016, he was just downright unlucky. 

But Sagan’s failure to win Sanremo was perhaps also a product of a bygone era. In this age of the so-called ‘new cycling,’ the biggest races are increasingly stacked in favour of the strongest riders. High speeds in the opening phase of the Classics create more selective races than before, ensuring that only the very elite tier of the peloton remain in genuine contention come the final hour of racing. The peloton’s grandees, meanwhile, are far more willing to throw themselves on the offensive than they were a generation ago. 

Back in 2018, for instance, Sagan had a sizeable peloton lined up on his back wheel on the Poggio, waiting for him to respond to his old teammate Vincenzo Nibali’s attack. The Slovakian, weary of the man-marking, held his fire, and Nibali held an advantage all the way to the Via Roma.

Such a scenario seems unthinkable on Saturday, simply because the bunch will likely have been shredded by the sheer relentlessness of UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s forcing long before the upper reaches of the Poggio. And therein lies the central paradox in Van der Poel’s Milan-Sanremo story. Pogačar is Van der Poel’s toughest opponent on the Riviera, but he has also inadvertently been his most important domestique in his two victories.

In 2023, Pogačar’s volley of attacks on the Poggio ultimately served to shift the piano before Van der Poel delivered his virtuoso solo over the top. Last year, Pogačar’s onslaught removed everybody bar Van der Poel and Filippo Ganna from contention with more than 20km to race, and it drew the sting from the Italian’s finishing speed to boot. 

On each occasion, Milan-Sanremo would have been radically different without Pogačar and Van der Poel’s road to victory might well have been more complicated as a result. But rather than face the multiple split-second decisions that stymied a heavily-marked Sagan over the years, Van der Poel has instead faced a brutally simple equation at Milan-Sanremo – follow Pogačar, and the tactics take care of themselves. 

Following Pogačar is easier said than done, of course. Van der Poel goes into this latest contest blind as he hasn’t raced against Pogačar since last year’s Tour de France. Van der Poel was a crushing solo winner at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, and he took two ominous stage wins at Tirreno-Adriatico, winning the sprint in Martinsicuro by a street. Pogačar, meanwhile, won Strade Bianche with his usual ease and estimates suggested his power numbers were even higher than in 2025.

“Last year he was already very close. If I’m one percent less, Tadej is gone on the Cipressa,” Van der Poel said. That flex on the final day of Tirreno suggested he is ready for Milan-Sanremo, but the sparring sessions of recent weeks are only a guide.

The verdict will come when Van der Poel steps back into the ring with Pogačar on the Cipressa. The irresistible force hasn’t found a way to shift the immovable object so far. And for better or for worse, Van der Poel knows he’s not going to stop trying.