Vingegaard versus Almeida and Pogacar: how do their Tour and Giro squads compare?

"Over the past five years, my build up to the Tour has been largely the same. This time we have chosen something new,” Vingegaard explained when outlining his decision to race the Giro. “The organisers have designed a great route. Perhaps it is not as demanding as in recent years, and that makes the Giro-Tour double a favourable option for us.”

The Dane also admitted that the chance to complete cycling’s Grand Tour treble played a significant role in his choice. “Winning the Vuelta last autumn has only given me even more motivation to go all in for victory in Italy as well. I would love nothing more than to add the pink jersey to my collection.”

In pursuit of that treble, Vingegaard will be backed by trusted lieutenant Sepp Kuss, a talismanic presence given he has been there for every Grand Tour victory of the Dane’s career to date. Victor Campenaerts is also part of the plan.

The 34-year-old Belgian has, in the space of a year, established himself as a key domestique for Vingegaard. It also means his programme and preparation in the run up to the Giro and Tour closely mirror that of his leader. Speaking to Het Laatste Nieuws, Campenaerts said Vingegaard values his presence. “Jonas came to tell me in November what my programme would be. He said, ‘I already know your programme, you know.’”

Visma’s Giro squad, confirmed by the team to Domestique, will also include the experienced Wilco Kelderman, Bart Lemmen, Edoardo Affini and newcomers Davide Piganzoli  and Timo Kielich.

Despite the presence of dangerous outsiders such as Giulio Pellizzari, Jai Hindley, Richard Carapaz and Derek Gee-West, a fresh duel between João Almeida and Jonas Vingegaard, following their battle at the Vuelta a España in 2024, appears the most likely scenario.

At the UAE Team Emirates-XRG media day in Benidorm last December, it became clear that Almeida has been released from his domestique duties for Tadej Pogačar this season and is free to ride for his own ambitions at both the Giro d’Italia and the Vuelta a España. Given the depth of quality within the UAE squad, it is no surprise that the Portuguese rider will be supported by a strong team.

Almeida can count on the backing of Adam Yates, Jay Vine, Jan Christen, Florian Vermeersch, Igor Arrieta and António Morgado. The final spot in the Giro lineup has yet to be decided.

So who lines up with the strongest squad? With Sepp Kuss and Adam Yates respectively, both Vingegaard and Almeida have lieutenants capable of going deep into the decisive moments of mountain stages. However, the added presence of Vine, Christen and Arrieta gives UAE slightly more depth than Visma | Lease a Bike, whose mountain support is expected to revolve around Wilco Kelderman, Victor Campenaerts and Davide Piganzoli.

Even so, the gap does not appear to be a large one, and Vingegaard’s edge over Almeida to date suggests he should be capable of forcing something himself, or repairing situations when needed.

Looking ahead to July and Tour de France, the opponent changes for Jonas Vingegaard, with Tadej Pogačar back as the primary rival, but the familiar balance of power between UAE Team Emirates-XRG and Visma | Lease a Bike remains very much the same.

This time, however, the chances of a genuine third force are greater. Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe and Lidl-Trek have both strengthened spectacularly with the arrivals of Remco Evenepoel and Juan Ayuso respectively, and each now has a structure capable of approaching the level of UAE and Visma | Lease a Bike. What remains unproven is whether Evenepoel or Ayuso can sustain the same level over three weeks as Pogačar and Vingegaard.

When looking at the provisional Tour line-ups of UAE and Visma, both teams currently consist of seven confirmed riders, with one place still open. At Visma | Lease a Bike, that final slot had originally been earmarked for Simon Yates, who recently ended his career.

Placed side-by-side, the two squads are exceptionally strong and well balanced, capable across all terrain thanks to a mix of climbing firepower and raw strength for flat and transitional stages. As with the Giro comparison, UAE appear to hold a slight edge in pure climbing depth, although that assessment may yet shift depending on how the final places are filled.

If Visma decide to add further climbing strength, the final spot is likely to be contested between Ben Tulett, Wilco Kelderman, Steven Kruijswijk and Jørgen Nordhagen. At UAE, the most obvious candidates appear to be Marc Soler and Jhonatan Narváez.

Whichever way those final selections fall, it does not look as though Vingegaard will arrive in July with a team capable of overwhelming UAE and applying sustained pressure through strength in numbers alone. 

That suggests the Tour will once again hinge on a direct duel, something Vingegaard has not yet cracked over the past two seasons, meaning that this time, something different will have to be pulled from the hat.