Vuelta a España stage 11 preview: Brennan leads sprint favourites but late climb invites attacks

The route from Cartagena to Lorca contains just one categorised climb and 1,391 metres of elevation gain. On paper, that should leave Matthew Brennan and the other fast men fighting for another stage victory.

Getting them to the finish together may prove more complicated.

The climb comes late enough to encourage attacks, while stage 8 already showed how much tension can build when the peloton knows a sprint opportunity is approaching. 

Visma | Lease a Bike controlled that finale impressively and may need to do the same again if Brennan is to make it three victories on his Grand Tour debut.

Key Information

• Start: Cartagena
• Finish: Lorca
• Start time: 14:08
• Estimated finish time: 17:21
• Stage type: Flat
• Stage length: 153.8km
• Elevation gain: 1,391m

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Stage 11 takes the peloton from Cartagena to Lorca over 153.8 kilometres and, for the majority of the afternoon, there is little in the profile to trouble the fast men.

The stage has similarities with the route to Xeraco on stage 8. Both contain long stretches of relatively flat terrain before a single categorised climb late in the day, and the total elevation gain is also comparable.

The main obstacle arrives after the intermediate sprint in Totana.

The Alto de Aledo is the only categorised climb of the stage. It measures 9.5 kilometres at an average gradient of 4.2%, with the summit coming 32 kilometres from the finish.

Those numbers should not be enough to eliminate riders such as Brennan, Pedersen or Coquard through climbing ability alone. The more significant challenge is likely to be the pace and positioning on the approach.

Stage 8 provided a reminder of how nervous these apparently straightforward sprint stages can become. There was considerable tension in the peloton, several crashes and plenty of riders trying to anticipate the sprint with attacks in the finale.

A similar scenario is possible here.

The intermediate sprint in Totana comes immediately before the climb, which should ensure the pace is already high. Wout van Aert has the points classification to consider, while teams without a leading sprinter may see the climb as their best opportunity to make the race difficult.

Once over the top, there is still enough road for the sprint teams to regain control.

Visma | Lease a Bike produced a commanding performance in the closing stages on stage 8, closing down the attacks before putting Brennan into position. They may need another similarly organised chase towards Lorca.

If there is hesitation behind, however, a strong group going clear over the climb could make life considerably more complicated.

• Intermediate Sprint | Totana | 41.9km to go
• Alto del Morrón de Totana | 3rd category | 7.8km at 4.5% | 32km to go

Matthew Brennan has two wins on his Grand Tour debut, the second of them in Roquetes on a finish harder than this one, where he came from behind after Wout van Aert's attack had stretched the group. Van Aert and Christophe Laporte delivered him into the last corner that day, and nobody came past. 

Brennan afterwards described the final kilometre spot on, and the Dutch team will be looking to replicate that performance with a hat-trick stage win.

Van Aert has green to defend and an intermediate sprint to contest, so Visma have a reason to ride even if the finale goes wrong, and he has already said he would rather lead Brennan out on flat days than try to beat him.

Cofidis have a reason of their own. Bryan Coquard won in Xeraco on a day dominated by crashes, and the team came to Spain with stage wins as their stated objective. One is a good return. Two changes their season.

Beyond those two, the depth thins further following Mads Pedersen’s abandonment due to illness. Jordi Meeus remains one of the clearest threats in a straightforward sprint.

The Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider may well have the highest top speed of anyone left in the race, but he is missing Danny van Poppel as his usual leadout, while the team also has responsibilities around Primož Roglič in second overall.

Pau Miquel is the one to watch beyond the obvious names. He was second in Manosque, has already collected several near misses this season and is still chasing a first professional win at 23.

He is not alone in that second tier of fast finishers. Alessandro Romele (XDS Astana), Vincenzo Albanese (EF Education-EasyPost), Hugo Hofstetter (NSN Cycling), Steffen De Schuyteneer (Lotto-Intermarché), Orluis Aular (Movistar) and Jordan Labrosse (TotalEnergies) all have the kind of profile that can turn a messy sprint into a genuine opportunity.

The recent winners should only encourage them. Bryan Coquard has already shown that this Vuelta is open to riders outside the most obvious circle, while Bastien Tronchon did the same from a different scenario. That makes another surprise easier to imagine.

If the break goes instead, the likely names are familiar from the moves that have shaped this Vuelta. Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility) has six stage wins in the race, has already featured in several breakaways and came close again this week. With retirement coming at the end of the season, he has every reason to keep hunting one more.