Vuelta a España stage 13 preview: Is it finally Van Aert's day?

Wout van Aert has been everywhere in this Vuelta without yet getting his stage victory.

He rode into the breakaway on the road to Valdelinares and finished third, came fourth behind Bastien Tronchon in Elche de la Sierra, then switched roles in Lorca and delivered Matthew Brennan to his third victory of the race.

Stage 13 may offer the Belgian his best opportunity yet.

There is enough climbing to make life difficult for the pure sprinters, but none of it comes close enough to the finish to guarantee that the race stays split. The final categorised climb, the Puerto de Granada, is crested with 37.4km remaining before the road gradually drops towards Loja.

Key information:

• Start: 12:20 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:16 (CET)
• Stage type: Medium Mountains
• Stage length: 193.2km
• Elevation gain: 3,399m

Follow stage 13 live at Domestique with our live reporting.

Stage 13 is billed as a medium mountain stage, but depending on how the first half of the stage is raced, it could still end in a sprint of sorts.

The first half of the stage features three categorised climbs, beginning with the category one Venta de la Cebada (14.1km at 5.1%), which could split the climbers from the rest. However, the summit is 160km from the finish line, so its impact is likely to be limited. The Alto del Legionario (15.4km at 3.1%) follows later in the first half of the stage.

The final categorised climb, the Puerto de Granada (7.4km at 5.6%), a category 2 ascent, could pose more problems for the less natural climbers, but if any versatile sprinters manage to hang on, or stay within touching distance of the front of the race, there's 32km to return to the peloton on a flat run in to Loja.

Though the road kicks up slightly inside the final kilometre to the finish line, this could be an ideal stage for a versatile fast finisher, like Wout van Aert.

• Alto de la Venta de la Cebada | 1st category | 14.1km at 5.1% | 161.6km to go
• Alto del Legionario | 3rd category | 15.4km at 3.1% | 109.4km to go
• Tocón | Intermediate sprint | 47.8km to go
• Puerto de Granada | 2nd category | 7.4km at 5.6% | 37.4km to go

Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) enters the stage as the standout favourite. The terrain plays directly into the Belgian’s unique skill set, as the intermediate climbing over the Puerto de Granada should remove the purest sprinters while leaving him well-positioned near the front. After several near-misses during the opening fortnight, the run towards Loja represents one of his finest opportunities to claim a stage victory.

Visma | Lease a Bike also retain a potent secondary option in Matthew Brennan, who has repeatedly demonstrated his raw finishing speed with three stage wins already at this Vuelta

Should the tempo remain controlled, Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) poses a significant threat, while Vincenzo Albanese (EF Education–EasyPost) and Jordan Labrosse (Decathlon CMA CGM) provide dangerous alternatives. Both Albanese and Labrosse fit the mold of fast finishers capable of negotiating tough intermediate climbing, making them prime candidates if a reduced bunch reaches Loja together.

If the peloton enforces an aggressive tempo over the climbs to shed the remaining fast men, the dynamic shifts toward opportunistic puncheurs. Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility) excels in such unpredictable scenarios, holding the tactical versatility to either infiltrate an early move or contest a sprint from a severely thinned-out main group.

Thibau Nys (Lidl–Trek) becomes a primary contender if the stage grows highly selective without devolving into a pure climbers' showcase, thriving on punchy, undulating terrain. 

Meanwhile, Stage 7 winner Andreas Leknessund (Uno-X Mobility) and Kevin Vermaerke (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) offer formidable firepower for medium mountain breakaways. Leknessund has already proven his strength from the break in this Vuelta, winning the summit finish at Aramón Valdelinares after attacking 7.5km from the line, while Vermaerke's versatility over hilly terrain makes him an ideal option to slip away.

Pello Bilbao has perhaps the biggest incentive of the remaining candidates. Victory in Loja would complete his set of stage wins across all three Grand Tours, and although Jakob Omrzel now sits sixth overall, Bahrain Victorious are unlikely to prioritise defending that position over further stage wins. The Spaniard should therefore still have plenty of freedom to attack.

His teammate Santiago Buitrago is another natural option. With mountain points available on all three categorised climbs, the Colombian has every reason to make the early move and could be difficult to shake if the race is still together on the Puerto de Granada.

Pavel Sivakov (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) is another possible candidate in the absence of Tadej Pogačar. The Frenchman has already shown a willingness to go on the attack in this Vuelta and has the experience and climbing ability to handle a stage of this nature.

Behind them, there is no shortage of riders willing to take their chance from the breakaway. Bruno Armirail (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Raúl García Pierna (Movistar) have both been active throughout the race and featured prominently in the move on the road to Aitana.

García Pierna remains one of Movistar's likeliest riders to be given freedom, while Visma's GC focus on Sepp Kuss should not prevent the team from continuing to hunt stage wins. That could give riders such as Armirail and Grand Tour debutant Jørgen Nordhagen the freedom to go on the attack.

Marcel Camprubí (Pinarello-Q36.5) also showed his strength on Aitana, staying clear until inside the final six kilometres of the climb.

There should be similar freedom for Ramses Debruyne, who now carries Alpecin-Premier Tech's stage ambitions following the abandonment of Kaden Groves. With no sprinter left to support, the Belgian team has every reason to target another breakaway.