Five favourites for the green jersey at the Vuelta
We have already looked at various classifications for the 2025 Vuelta. Now it is time to assess the leading contenders for the green jersey. Whoever pulls it on in Madrid will have had to work hard for it.
1. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
The absolute favourite by a significant margin. Mads Pedersen, wiped the floor with the competition at the Giro d'Italia back in May, where he romped the points classification, taking 4 beautiful stage wins along the way. Pedersen will be brimming with confidence, with the Vuelta parcours closely resembling that of the Giro, which offered few opportunities for pure sprinters.
Not only that, but the sprinting competition in this edition of this Vuelta is also pretty insignificant, with likely no real competition to Pedersen, as he looks to be a cut above the rest when it comes to sprinting in the more rugged terrain. With Jonas Vingegaard potentially set to dominate the general classification, Pedersen could do the same in the points race, setting up the prospect of a Danish double in Spain.
2. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin - Deceuninck)
The past month has been a whirlwind for Jasper Philipsen, from the jubilation of wearing the yellow jersey after sprinting to victory in Lille, to the despair and pain of the horrific crash that took him out of the Tour when he looked set for green. Philipsen made his racing return at the PostNord Tour of Denmark after breaking his collarbone and fracturing a rib, using the race to build his shape ahead of the Vuelta.
What is often underestimated about Philipsen is his ability to get over climbs when the pace really ramps up. The reason we place him below Pedersen in our rankings is purely down to the lack of true sprint stages in this edition. With the opening stage a flat affair, however, Philipsen will be a huge favourite to take the red jersey, which would be quite the streak to pull off after his yellow jersey feat in July.
3. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
With 11 summit finishes in store for the 2025 Vuelta, and as aforementioned, a real lack of sprint stages to be contested, Vingegaard could quite easily find himself in the green jersey. With an expected Vingegaard domination on the cards, as he is in a completely different atmosphere compared to the other GC riders, it would not be out of the equation for him to win a minimum of six to eight stages if he really wanted to.
Vingegaard, in the Dauphiné and the Tour, demonstrated a real classy kick, matching Tadej Pogačar on the majority of the short efforts, which will only bode well for the short and sharp, steep ramps of La Vuelta.
4. Axel Zingle (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Another Visma | Lease a Bike rider, this time the Frenchman Axel Zingle. Back at the start of the 2025 season, in Paris–Nice, Zingle was consistently in the mix for stage victories on terrain similar to what awaits in this year’s Vuelta. He excels in reduced-bunch sprints but is still chasing his first WorldTour win, having come close on several occasions. His move from Cofidis to Visma | Lease a Bike for 2025 could give him the freedom to push for results, and the Vuelta might offer him the perfect opportunity.
5. Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers)
Another slight wildcard pick is the Italian who finished second in the blockbuster 2025 Milan–Sanremo. Ganna has the ability to mix it in both bunch sprints and reduced-bunch finishes at this year’s Vuelta. If he makes it through to stage 18, it is almost certain he will take the victory there, with the finish in Valladolid, the scene of his only Vuelta stage win so far.
After his DNF on the opening stage of the Tour, Ganna will be aiming to return with a vengeance. And who knows what ‘Top Ganna’ could achieve.
