Giro d'Italia stage 4 preview - Sprinters need their climbing legs, and maybe their echelon instincts

Stage 4 marks the Giro d’Italia’s arrival on Italian soil, taking the peloton from Catanzaro to Cosenza.

Key information:

• Start: 14:00 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:10 (CET)
• Stage type: flat
• Stage length: 138.63km
• Elevation gain: 1576m

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The stage begins with five false flat kilometres, followed by 75 kilometres of flat roads. The riders then tackle the Cozzo Tunno, a significant climb of 14.6km at 5.9%. After that, there are 20 fast kilometres, including a technical descent, before the final 22 kilometres of flat roads into the finish, mostly with a tailwind.

This time, the race ends with a technical finale through the streets of Cosenza. The final corner comes 400 metres from the line, and the sprint once again takes place on a false flat, with gradients of 2 to 3% on the finishing straight.

Positioning into the final corner will be crucial, as it will be difficult to move up on the run to the line.

At the same time, the final hundred metres kick up slightly, so launching too early could prove costly. Timing the sprint will be a difficult call. The perfect scenario would be to have one final lead out rider ahead into the finishing straight, allowing the sprinter to be launched into the steeper final 150 metres

Key points

• Intermediate sprint - 57.5km to go (foot of the climb)
• Cozzo Tunno | 2nd category climb - 14.6km at 5.9% - 43km to go
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) - 11.6km to go

This is a difficult stage to predict. The Cozzo Tunno is much harder than the climb on stage 3, and it comes close enough to the finish to make the sprinters nervous. That uncertainty should shape the entire race.

The first question is how much control there will be before the climb. Some sprint teams may hesitate to commit riders if they are not sure their fast man can survive, while teams with several options may prefer to keep the race open. That should give the breakaway a better chance than it had on stage 3, especially if a strong move forms early.

The climb itself is likely to be the decisive point of the stage. If it is ridden steadily, a reduced sprint remains the most likely outcome. If one or two teams decide to increase the pace, however, many pure sprinters could be put into difficulty, and the race may become much harder to organise afterwards.

That makes the composition of the front group over the top crucial. If enough sprint teams still have numbers, the final 43 kilometres should allow them to bring the race back together. But if the climb creates a fragmented race, with domestiques dropped, the breakaway or a late attack could become much harder to control. Also the tail wind is something which might help the attackers.

The technical descent and the final run through Cosenza also add another layer of difficulty. Positioning will matter long before the final corner, and the slightly uphill finishing straight means the sprint will be about timing as much as raw speed. Launch too early, and the final 150 metres could feel very long.

So a lot depends on how much faith the teams have in their sprinters. A reduced sprint still looks the likeliest outcome, but a breakaway victory cannot be ruled out. If it does come back together, a slight headwind is forecast on the finishing straight, though the high buildings should limit its impact.

Decathlon CMA CGM Team have the ideal candidate for this stage in Tobias Lund Andresen. They should be one of the few teams fully motivated to control the race, given how well the Dane climbs for a sprinter. If the Cozzo Tunno is raced very hard, he could still find himself in trouble, but the slightly uphill finish suits him perfectly.

Ben Turner, riding for Netcompany Ineos, should also have major ambitions. Given the punch he has, he climbs extremely well, and with Filippo Ganna he could have an excellent lead out if the Italian survives the climb. Turner should also enjoy the technical finale and the slightly uphill sprint.

Movistar Team will look to Orluis Aular for a result here. At last year’s Giro d’Italia, he showed he had taken a step forward in stages like this. He is also very strong when it comes to positioning, which could prove crucial in the final kilometre.

NSN Cycling Team face a difficult call. Corbin Strong will hope for a hard race, while Ethan Vernon will hope for the opposite. There is a scenario in which either rider can win, and Jake Stewart gives the team another option if the climb proves too much for Vernon.

Soudal QuickStep will be curious to see how Paul Magnier handles a stage like this. He has already won two stages, but his climbing form remains unknown. He has an even higher top speed than Groves, but he still has to prove that he can climb like Groves at his best.

EF Education-EasyPost will hope to spring a surprise with Madis Mihkels. The young Estonian is already in his fourth year at WorldTour level despite being only 22, and he has already taken two top five finishes in the first two sprint stages of this Giro d’Italia. There is still plenty of untapped potential.

Jonathan Milan of Lidl-Trek has not been climbing at his previous level this season, so there is a major question mark over how he will handle the Cozzo Tunno. The first two sprint chances have not gone perfectly for him, and he will hope to make something happen here.

Alpecin Premier Tech will hope Kaden Groves can make it over the climb. He crashed on the opening stage, but had a rest day to recover before this stage. It is far from certain that he will survive the climb, but if he does, he will be a very dangerous contender.

If Groves is distanced, his Italian teammate Francesco Busatto is a strong backup option for Alpecin. He climbs well and has a sharp kick after a hard race.

Edoardo Zambanini of Bahrain Victorious will be highly motivated at this Giro d’Italia after narrowly missing out on a stage win last year. In normal circumstances, this climb should be anything but a problem for him. His team could even try to make the ascent harder by setting a fierce pace, as that would play into his hands. After his crash on stage 2, however, his condition is now uncertain.

Other riders to watch include Lennert Van Eetvelt of Lotto-Intermarché, Robert Donaldson of Team Jayco AlUla, Davide Ballerini of XDS Astana and Luca Mozzato of Tudor.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Lund Andresen

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Turner, Aular

⭐⭐⭐  Strong, Magnier, Mihkels

⭐⭐  Milan, Groves, Zambanini, Vernon

⭐  Van Eetvelt, Ballerini, Donaldson, Mozzato, Busatto