Giro d'Italia stage 5 preview - A first test for the GC men?

On paper, this stage from  Praia a Mare to Potenza looks like a strong opportunity for the breakaway. In reality, it is more complicated than that. With a demanding route, almost 3,700 metres of elevation gain and a brutal climb deep into the stage, the general classification riders are unlikely to get through the day untouched.

Key information:

• Start: 12:25 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:00 (CET)
• Stage type: hilly
• Stage length: 203.62km
• Elevation gain: 3694m

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The stage starts in Praia a Mare and finishes in Potenza after more than 203 demanding kilometres.

There is little time for the riders to settle in. After just 12 flat kilometres, the peloton reaches the first major obstacle of the day: the Prestieri, a 15km climb at an average gradient of 4.5%. After a short descent, another climb follows, measuring 7.2km at 3.5%. A proper warm-up will be essential.

Those early climbs should make the fight for the breakaway intense. Many riders will see this as one of the best opportunities of the opening week, although that could also make the race harder to read. When too many teams want to be represented, the opening phase can stay locked for far longer than expected.

After the early climbing, the route settles into almost 100 kilometres of valley roads. That section may offer a moment of control, but the real final begins with 63 kilometres to go, when the riders hit a 5km climb at 5.4%.

That is only the prelude.

The Montagna Grande di Viggiano is the key climb of the stage. At 5km with an average gradient of 10%, it is short, steep and severe enough to split the race apart. The peloton will almost certainly be reduced to fragments.

What makes the stage especially dangerous is that the finish does not come at the top. There are still almost 50 kilometres to race after the climb. Normally, that would make regrouping possible, but after such a steep ascent many domestiques are likely to be dropped. Riders distanced over the top could find themselves isolated on the rolling terrain towards Potenza.

That final section is far from straightforward. It is constantly changing, difficult to control and well suited to late attacks. Anyone caught alone without teammates could lose significant time.

The Giro organisers have designed a beautiful and challenging stage.

The final itself adds another layer of difficulty. With around 6km to go, the riders enter a technical run-in.

It begins with a two-kilometre climb at nearly 6%, including a very steep opening 300 metres and a short descent in the middle. A two-kilometre descent follows before the road opens up again for a slightly uphill sprint to the line.

The final 1.4km continue to rise gently. Combined with the technical approach, the preceding climb and the fatigue already in the legs, this is not a simple sprint finish.

Key points

• Opening climb | 3rd category - 15km at 4,5% - 175km to go
• Intermediate sprint - 134.6km to go
• Montagna Grande di Viggiano | 2nd category - 5km at 10% - 48km to go
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) - 28.8km to go
• Start of the technical final - 6km to go

This is an obvious day for the breakaway, but not an easy one to predict. The time gaps in the general classification are still small, and that could make the fight to get up the road even more chaotic. If the wrong combination goes clear, the peloton may not be willing to let it go.

Even if a strong breakaway does form, the final 50 kilometres could still change everything. The Montagna Grande di Viggiano is hard enough to expose any weakness, and the rolling terrain afterwards gives both attackers and GC riders room to make the race.

If the stage comes down to the favourites, the biggest question is whether the best climbers are already willing to attack from distance. For riders still searching for their best legs, this is a day for caution. A bad moment here could already reshape their Giro ambitions.

One thing is clear: stage 5 should be one of the most important days of the opening week.

The weather could make the stage even harder.

The first 85 kilometres are expected to feature a tailwind, which may make the battle for the breakaway even faster and more aggressive. After that, the riders face a long section of crosswind and headwind before reaching the decisive climbs.

On the Montagna Grande di Viggiano and across the rolling final 50 kilometres, crosswinds could make positioning even more important. There is also a chance of rain and thunderstorms, which would make the technical finale more dangerous.

If the stage is decided by the GC group, it is hard to look past Jonas Vingegaard. The Montagna Grande di Viggiano is steep enough for him to make a serious difference, even with almost 50 kilometres still to race after the summit. The bigger question is whether Team Visma | Lease a Bike want to take the Maglia Rosa this early.

There are arguments on both sides. Vingegaard could gain valuable time and put pressure on his rivals. Stage 2 already showed that he is not afraid to move early in the race. But taking pink would also force his team to control the race in the days that follow. That is a significant commitment at this point in a Grand Tour, especially after losing Wilco Kelderman.

For Lidl-Trek, this stage looks like a major opportunity, although Giulio Ciccone’s position has changed significantly after taking the pink jersey yesterday. He is perfectly suited to a day like this and has openly said he is targeting stage wins at this Giro. The more he says that, however, the more tempting it becomes to ask whether he can also remain in the GC picture.

Wearing pink adds another layer to that question. Lidl-Trek now have to decide how much they want to control the race, and how much freedom they can still give Ciccone to ride on instinct. It will also change how others look at him. A rider who might previously have been allowed some space as a stage hunter is now much harder to let go.

On a stage like this, Ciccone could be one of the few riders capable of limiting his losses to Vingegaard, while still having the punch to win from a reduced group.

Derek Gee-West is another important card for Lidl-Trek. He lost time after a crash on stage 2, but his ride afterwards was impressive. When the peloton accelerated again, he was still chasing back on his own, even before the climb. 

To lose only around a minute in those circumstances was a strong recovery. The final 50 kilometres of this stage suit him well, and if he reaches the top of the Montagna Grande di Viggiano in a good position, he could attack on the rolling roads towards Potenza.

Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe may look to use Giulio Pellizzari on a stage that suits him extremely well. The steep climb gives him a chance to put time into some GC rivals, and the terrain afterwards offers opportunities for an aggressive rider. Like Vingegaard, he may see this as a chance to gain an early advantage.

Andreas Leknessund is another rider to watch. He has the freedom to target stages for Uno-X Mobility and has been in excellent form throughout the season, even if he remains slightly under the radar. On stage 2, he looked strong on a shorter climb that suited him less than this one. 

He even had enough left to attack solo after the climb, was brought back and still sprinted to seventh. Whether from the breakaway or a reduced peloton, this stage gives him a real opportunity.

Lotto-Intermarché will look towards Lennert Van Eetvelt. Stage 2 suggested he is returning to his best level, as he was one of the few riders able to follow Vingegaard in the final, together with Pellizzari. This stage gives him another chance to convert that form into a result.

For Movistar, Javier Romo is likely to be active in the hunt for stages, with Enric Mas focused on the general classification. Romo has the profile for a tactical finale like this. He climbs well enough to survive the Montagna Grande di Viggiano and is dangerous on rolling terrain. 

Enric Mas should also like the steep climb, although the final 50 kilometres may suit him less.

Decathlon CMA CGM have a clear GC leader in Felix Gall, and this is exactly the sort of stage where he should be competitive. The Austrian continues to develop impressively and has a genuine chance of fighting for a first Grand Tour podium at this Giro. A hard, selective day with a steep climb and attritional finale should suit him.

Christian Scaroni is another rider who will have marked this stage. He is not riding for GC, which gives him more freedom, and his punchy profile fits the terrain. He has already shown he can win on difficult Giro stages, and from the breakaway he could be a major threat.

Other riders to keep an eye on include Markel Beloki, Filippo Zana, Mathys Rondel, Jan Christen and Thymen Arensman.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Vingegaard

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Ciccone, Pellizzari

⭐⭐⭐  Leknessund, Van Eetvelt, Romo

⭐⭐  Gall, Gee-West, Mas, Scaroni

⭐  Beloki, Zana, Rondel, Christen, Arensman