Men’s World Championship ITT preview: Pogacar ready to challenge Evenepoel

The World Championship time trial in Kigali comes with the following key details:

Date: Sunday, September 21
Length: 40.6 km
Elevation gain: 681m
Intermediate points: 10.6km / 24.0km / 31.6km 
Start and finish time: 13:45 - 16:50 CET
Start times and order: can be found here.

Looking for the women's preview? You can find it here.

It’s a tough, mostly non-technical course with few flat sections. Finding a rhythm is challenging, and proper pacing is crucial, especially with the cobbled Kimihurura climb at the end.

The time trial starts in the BK Arena, which also hosted the prologue of the Tour du Rwanda. The stadium is mainly used for basketball and volleyball matches.

The first 8.3 km wind their way on a zigzagging, rolling road through the eastern part of Kigali to the foot of the first climb.

The first climb runs along the Nyanza neighbourhood, starting from the northern side. The main roads here are fairly even, never becoming truly steep. At the top of the climb lies the first intermediate checkpoint.

From there, the riders descend to the U-turn and the southernmost point of the time trial, before tackling the same road as a climb back to the top of Nyanza.

This side is longer but less steep. A second intermediate checkpoint at the top past halfway should already give an indication of who is still in contention for the win and the podium.

This is followed by an 8.7 km descent, which is simple and non-technical, bringing the riders back to the heart of Kigali. The third intermediate checkpoint comes after 31.5 km, in the Kinunga neighborhood.

The final section of this time trial starts with the Côte de Péage, which is then descended in the opposite direction.

The final 2.3 km follow the same route as in the road race, featuring the Côte de Kimihurura over cobblestones. This climb is 1.3 km long with an average gradient of 5.9%, but the first 500 meters rise at 9%, peaking at 10.4%. The climb is somewhat like a shorter version of the Oude Kwaremont. Very tough after nearly 40 km of time trialing. 

A short descent leads to the final 600-meter uphill section, where the road briefly ramps up to 8% before reaching the finish at the Kigali Convention Centre.

Kigali has a mix of sun and showers this week, but Sunday will remain completely dry. The sun will make things a bit tougher, with temperatures around 26–27°C. A light wind will be blowing against you in the first part.

Who is the top favourite? Two-time winner and ultra-specialist Evenepoel, or the Slovenian alien Pogačar? The course actually suits both riders very well, but it does give Pogačar the chance to become world time trial champion, a chance he hasn’t had yet and probably won’t get again. When Pogačar sets his mind on something, every competitor must fear him, yes, even the best time trialist in the world.

Due to the light winds and the lack of long flat sections, Evenepoel’s usual advantages are lessened compared to previous duels with Pogačar. This suggests we’re in for a real battle, something rarely seen between Pogačar and Evenepoel in a time trial.

Does this rule out other winners? Not at all, we keep our sights open. The Australians are bringing two dangerous contenders to Kigali. Vine nearly beat Ganna in a flat time trial just last week and can rely on his Vuelta form, while Plapp has quietly prepared to end his season with a bang in this time trial. One of them could surprise. Vine is the more logical pick, but I’ll go bold and predict that Plapp will make it onto the podium.

The power horses Tarling and Ganna are not competing, but Küng is giving it a shot. However, this course should really be above his level, and it’s been a while since Kung delivered a truly outstanding time trial.

Romeo has also been preparing quietly. Last year’s under-23 time trial world champion will find this course perfectly to his liking. He spent a lot of time on his time trial bike in Andorra and arrived in Kigali a few days early. If he hits his best form, he could very well surprise with a medal.

He is one of many podium contenders who combine time-trialing ability with climbing skills. Armirail, Arensman, Cattaneo, Garcia Pierna and Van Wilder also belong in that group. With Arensman, I have the feeling he might need some time to adjust in Rwanda, which could mean he performs better in the road race after a slightly disappointing time trial.

The two youngsters, del Toro and Seixas, deserve more than just a mention, even though it’s hard to predict how they will handle this long time trial. Both have the talent to score highly here, but I won’t put too much pressure on either of them. They are similar types and excel on multiple fronts. 

Seixas was last year’s junior time trial world champion, the step up to the pros is huge, but he has already proven this year that he should be taken seriously across several disciplines. Del Toro is in peak form, though I’m not quite sure where to place him for Sunday, a top-5 finish would be a fantastic result.

Sheffield and Sobrero are two names I would have ranked a bit higher in recent years. I have some doubts about them, but purely based on their abilities, they are also top-5 contenders.

For Kigali, I’m keeping an open mind, I wouldn’t rule out a (big) surprise in any discipline. I’d say Pogačar will take the victory ahead of Evenepoel, with Plapp rounding out the podium in third, and Romeo and Vine completing the top five.

The World Championships in Rwanda run from 21-28 September:

👉 Explore the full race schedule
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