The top five GC favourites for the Vuelta a España
The final Grand Tour of the 2025 season is nearly upon us. The Vuelta a España begins in Turin on August 23 and finishes in Madrid on September 14. We look set for another thrilling edition, full of attacking racing, on a pretty brutal parcours. Domestique takes a look at five favourites for the red jersey - and let's be frank, there is one clear favourite...
1. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
The clear favourite for the red jersey, by a significant margin. The Dane comes into the 2025 Vuelta off the back of another second place at the Tour de France, where he was, by some distance, the best of the rest behind Tadej Pogačar.
Vingegaard's clear superiority over everyone bar Pogačar in France makes him the overwhelming favourite at a Vuelta that won't feature the Slovenian.
Vingegaard will be supported by a strong core of Visma | Lease a Bike domestiques with his staples of Matteo Jorgenson and 2023 champion Sepp Kuss, along with the shining star, Victor Campenaerts, who reached new heights by turning himself inside out on the brutal climbs of the Tour.
Complimenting these riders for the swarm are: Axel Zingle, Wilco Keldermann, Ben Tulett and Attila Valter. On paper, Vingegaard also looks to have the strongest team in the race.
2. Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
The 22-year-old Spaniard comes into his home tour off the back of a DNF in May at the Giro d'Italia. Ayuso started with dreams of overall victory, but his race was plagued by bad luck, capped by the bee sting that ultimately forced his abandon. Ayuso had a long lay-off from racing afterwards, with his return coming at Donostia San Sebastian Klasikoa on August 2.
The biggest question surrounding Ayuso is whether he can go further than his podium finish on his debut at the race in 2022, especially after back-to-back abandons in his last two Grand Tours. He will also perhaps have to deal with some co-leader team dynamics with his UAE Team Emirates - XRG teammate João Almeida, although question marks remain surrounding the Portuguese's shape after fracturing his ribs at the Tour de France in July.
With this Vuelta potentially being a clean slate for Ayuso and the potential question marks surrounding Almeida's shape, there is no reason why he will not be right up there competing in the upper echelons of the general classification come 14 September in Madrid.
3. Richard Carapaz (EF Education EasyPost)
At the 2025 Giro d'Italia, Richard Carapaz put on an absolute climbing clinic with some wonderful, daring performances, earning him a stage win and a third place in the GC. The Ecuadorian, who finished second in the GC at the Vuelta in 2020, will be flying into the race brimming with confidence to achieve something big.
Carapaz hasn't raced since the Giro d'Italia, but he has been training and building his shape towards the Vuelta, having been ruled out on the Tour de France due to illness. He will be looking to finish in the podium places, which is well within his range. He will be complemented by an attacking EF Education EasyPost team.
Expect an aggressive showing from Carapaz across the three weeks. Vingegaard is the favourite, but if he falters, Carapaz will be poised to pounce.
4. Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)
A man who comes out of the Tour in fine form. The 27-year-old took home fifth place in the general classification after a strong showing in the third week of the Tour. Gall also showed up well on the Mûr-de-Bretagne early in the race, and his performance on that short, punchy affair augurs well for some of the climbs in this year's Vuelta.
Gall truly shines, though, when the terrain grows more extreme, with his noticeably swinging style on the bike always prominent on the TV broadcast. The Austrian is backed by a Decathlon AG2R team that has often been keen to seize control of races across the season.
Given the brutal nature of the parcours this year, Gall will be relishing the opportunity to achieve a high overall finish, which would be a continuation of a bright 2025 season for rider and team.
5. João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)
What a 2025 season João Almeida has had. He won the GC at the Itzulia Basque Country, the Tour de Suisse, and the Tour de Romandie, along with a Paris-Nice stage where he pipped Jonas Vingegaard in the closing metres. After a nasty high-speed crash on stage 7 of the Tour, Almeida suffered a fracture of his ribs, after which he tried to valiantly fight on in support of his teammate Tadej Pogačar's yellow jersey objective, until he had to abandon on stage 9 due to his injuries.
There will obviously be question marks surrounding the shape of Almeida, but his UAE Team Emirates-XRG team are optimistic. It remains to be seen what impact the addition of Juan Ayuso to the line-up will have on Almeida's chances. Will there be a potential inner battle for power between Ayuso and Almeida?
