Tour de France stage 10 preview - Can Vingegaard challenge Pogacar again in Le Lioran?

When the Tour de France last visited Le Lioran in 2024, the stage was widely expected to favour the breakaway. Instead, it developed into a full scale battle between the general classification contenders.

The same finale awaits the riders this year, although a more demanding approach makes this edition even tougher.

Key information:

• Start: 13:25 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:02-17:26 (CET)
• Stage type: Hilly
• Stage length: 166.91km
• Elevation gain: 3822m

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The opening section provides ideal terrain for a strong breakaway to form. The first 65 kilometres are relentlessly undulating, with barely any opportunity for the peloton to settle into a rhythm.

Just 14 kilometres into the stage, the riders already face a 1.1 kilometre climb averaging 8.7 percent.

After 65 kilometres, the categorised climbing begins. Four relatively manageable ascents gradually increase the fatigue before a much more demanding finale.

• Côte de Pailherols: 3.1km at 6.9%
  • This climb is followed by 13.5km of rolling terrain
• Col de la Griffoul: 6.8km at 6.2%
• Col de Prat de Bouc: 2.9km at 6.1%
• Côte de Murat: 5.1km at 5.1%

None of these climbs is likely to decide the stage on its own. Together, however, they will steadily drain the riders’ energy before the hardest section of the day.

The next obstacle is the Puy Mary, a 7.8 kilometre climb averaging 5.8 percent. Those numbers conceal a brutal finale, with the final 1.7 kilometres rising at an average of 9.4 percent.

A 12 kilometre descent then leads to the Col du Pertus, the toughest climb of the stage. It measures 4.3 kilometres at 8.5 percent, with the opening 2.1 kilometres averaging 10.2 percent and the final 1.3 kilometres rising at 9.7 percent.

After a short five kilometre descent, the riders begin the final categorised climb. The Col de Font de Cère is relatively gentle at 6.1 kilometres and 4.8 percent.

A rapid two kilometre descent follows before the road rises towards the finish. The final 700 metres average 5.9 percent, although the last 100 metres flatten out.

Key points

• Intermediate sprint - 141.1km to go
• Côte de Pailherols | 3rd category - 3.1km at 6.9% - 99km to go
• Col de la Griffoul | 2nd category - 6.8km at 6.2% - 69km to go
• Col de Prat de Bouc | 3rd category - 2.9km at 6.1% - 63km to go
• Côte de Murat | 3rd category - 5.1km at 5.1% - 48km to go
• Puy Mary | 1st category - 7.8km at 5.8% - 31km to go
• Col du Pertus | 1st category - 4.3km at 8.5% - 15km to go
• Col de Font de Cère | 3rd category - 6.1km at 4.8% - 3km to go

On paper, this is ideal terrain for the breakaway. The constant climbing and twisting roads make the stage exceptionally difficult to control.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG have shown, however, that they are willing to challenge that logic. In stage 3, they brought back the breakaway despite the chase appearing almost impossible. They came close to doing the same in stage 9 before ultimately allowing the attackers to contest the victory.

That approach significantly reduces the breakaway’s chances in Le Lioran.

The terrain gives UAE’s strongest riders an opportunity to maintain a demanding pace throughout the day. Pogačar is also capable of taking considerable time out of the attackers during the explosive final section.

A breakaway victory remains possible, but it will require an exceptional performance.

Given the route and UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s aggressive racing, there is one obvious favourite: Tadej Pogačar.

The stage appears perfectly suited to the Slovenian and his powerful team. He was beaten here by Jonas Vingegaard in 2024, reportedly after failing to eat enough during the finale, but a repeat of that scenario looks unlikely.

Then again, the same was said before the 2024 stage.

Pogačar can also rely on Isaac Del Toro, who has already shown that he is capable of winning stages of this nature at the highest level.

Jonas Vingegaard produced an impressive performance in stage 6, although he was unable to match Pogačar. With the Giro d’Italia still in his legs, it is reasonable to expect the Dane to improve as the Tour progresses. Even so, the gap to Pogačar currently appears substantial.

Another rider who thrives on this type of terrain is Remco Evenepoel. The Belgian finished third on this finish in 2024 and could achieve a similar result this time. A strong performance would also represent another important step in his pursuit of a place on the final podium.

Paul Seixas will have welcomed the opportunity to recover during the first rest day. The Decathlon CMA CGM rider appeared to still be dealing with the consequences of his crash at the Critérium du Dauphiné. When fully fit, this route should suit him perfectly.

Juan Ayuso has also endured a far from ideal build up to the Tour de France. The Lidl-Trek leader crashed heavily while wearing the yellow jersey at Paris Nice, suffered another training crash before Itzulia Basque Country and then became ill during the race.

He still performed well at the Dauphiné, only to fall ill again afterwards.

Despite those setbacks, Ayuso limited his losses during the opening week. His condition should improve as the Tour develops, and stage 10 could provide the first clear indication that he is approaching his best level.

Lidl-Trek also have Mattias Skjelmose, whose qualities are well suited to a demanding, hilly stage. The team must decide whether to give him the freedom to pursue the stage victory or ask him to support Ayuso’s general classification ambitions.

Uno-X Mobility endured a disastrous stage 6. Torstein Træen abandoned after a crash, while Tobias Halland Johannessen lost valuable time in the general classification.

Johannessen responded strongly by joining the breakaway in stage 9 and narrowly missing out on victory. Stage 10 suits his characteristics, and he should be expected to perform better than he did earlier in the race.

Tom Pidcock also struggled in stage 6 before producing a much stronger display from the breakaway in stage 9. A mechanical problem prevented him from contesting the victory, but the Pinarello-Q36.5 rider should once again be a major threat on terrain that rewards his explosiveness and descending skills.

Bahrain Victorious will have been encouraged by Lenny Martinez and his performance in stage 6. The Frenchman is more naturally suited to explosive climbs than long, steady ascents, making this one of the stages he will have highlighted before the Tour.

Other riders capable of emerging from the general classification group include Lennert Van Eetvelt of Lotto-Intermarché, Ilan Van Wilder of Soudal Quick-Step and Florian Lipowitz of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe.

Should the breakaway survive, Valentin Paret-Peintre of Soudal Quick-Step and Richard Carapaz of EF Education-EasyPost appear to be two of the strongest candidates.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Pogacar

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Vingegaard, Evenepoel

⭐⭐⭐  Del Toro, Seixas, Ayuso

⭐⭐  T. Halland Johannessen, Pidcock, Martinez, Skjelmose

⭐  Van Eetvelt, Van Wilder, Lipowitz, Carapaz, V. Paret-Peintre