Tour de France stage 17 preview: Breakaway specialists prepare for one final raid

Stage 17 has all the ingredients of a classic third week breakaway battle.

The route climbs almost immediately after the start in Chambéry, giving attackers close to 50 kilometres of demanding terrain on which to establish a strong move. With few opportunities remaining for the breakaway specialists, the fight to get up the road could be one of the fiercest of this Tour de France.

The sprinter teams still have reasons to chase, particularly with valuable points available in the battle for the green jersey. Controlling this stage, however, will require an enormous commitment.

Key information:

• Start: 13:35 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:18 (CET)
• Stage type: flat
• Stage length: 172.96km
• Elevation gain: 2160m

Follow stage 17 live at Domestique with our live reporting.

The opening ten kilometres are flat. From there, the race becomes considerably more difficult.

The following 38 kilometres are almost constantly uphill, creating ideal terrain for a large and powerful breakaway to form. Several steeper ramps provide natural launchpads for attacks, although the hardest section arrives near the end of this opening sequence.

The Col des Prés measures three kilometres at an average gradient of 7.2 percent. On paper, those numbers appear manageable. After more than 35 kilometres of rising roads, however, the climb is likely to expose any weakness and split the race apart.

A steep and technical descent follows. Halfway down, the riders face the Côte de Saint Jean d’Arvey, a 1.3 kilometre climb at 6.8 percent. The opening 700 metres average around 10 percent, offering another opportunity for aggressive riders to attack or bridge across to the front.

The positioning of the climb makes it even more difficult. It begins shortly after a corner, meaning the riders will enter it without carrying much speed.

After that, the most demanding terrain is behind them. A 7.5 kilometre valley leads into the uncategorised Col de Couz, an 11.5 kilometre drag at 2.8 percent. It is not steep enough to decide the stage on its own, but it could add further fatigue if the fight for the breakaway is still ongoing.

The following 84.5 kilometres are far more straightforward. A well balanced group should be able to cooperate effectively and build a meaningful advantage over the peloton.

The final 5.5 kilometres bring fresh complications.

A short climb ends with three kilometres remaining and could disrupt the organisation of any chasing group. 

The road then leads into a highly technical finale, where positioning will be crucial.

The first corners are taken on relatively wide roads, but the final two bends are far more hazardous. They arrive inside the last kilometre, with the first coming around 650 metres from the finish.

A second corner that comes with 350m to go is even more sketchy.

The final 300 metres rise at an average gradient of 1.6 percent. It is only a gentle incline, but after a demanding day it could prove significant, particularly in a reduced sprint or a close battle between surviving breakaway riders.

Key points

• Côte de Bassa  | 4th category - 1.7km at 5.9% - 156km to go
• Côte de Rossillon | 4th category - 1.6km at 5.8% - 138km to go
• Col des Prés | 3rd category - 3km at 7.2% - 124km to go
• Côte de Saint-Jean d'Arvey | 4th category 1.3km at 6.8% - 114km to go
• Intermediate sprint - 27.5km to go

As the profile suggests, this will be an extremely difficult stage to control. Alpecin-Premier Tech are still likely to commit fully to the battle for the green jersey, although their efforts may ultimately come to little.

Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) currently holds a 31 point lead, appears better suited to this stage and could also score at the intermediate sprints on stages 18 and possibly 20. He may also have the stronger chance of winning in Paris.

For Alpecin, targeting the stage from the breakaway with Mathieu van der Poel or Emiel Verstrynge may therefore be the more realistic option. That is unlikely to be the primary plan at the start, but the team could be forced to adapt during the opening 50 kilometres.

For Lidl-Trek, the stage will once again revolve around Mads Pedersen. Quinn Simmons admitted on the rest day that he would rather chase the stage himself than work for Pedersen’s green jersey, but made clear that he would follow the team’s orders.

Pedersen remains the clear leader. With Simmons, Mathias Vacek, Derek Gee-West, Toms Skujiņš and Carlos Verona around him, the Dane has one of the strongest teams in the race and will be difficult to beat.

Soudal Quick-Step are expected to put their faith in Jasper Stuyven following Tim Merlier’s withdrawal. The Belgian has already completed a demanding programme this season, including the spring classics, the Giro d’Italia, the Baloise Belgium Tour and the Tour de France, but continues to perform at a high level. With the team now riding for him, this is a major opportunity to chase a stage win.

Netcompany-Ineos are likely to look to Filippo Ganna. The Italian was deeply disappointed with his time trial performance, which could provide extra motivation. In previous Grand Tours, Ganna has often shifted his focus towards breakaways once the time trials were completed, making this stage a logical target.

Alpecin-Premier Tech is unlikely to take responsibility for controlling the stage, which could give Mathieu van der Poel the freedom to follow the most dangerous attacks. After underlining his excellent form on stage 9, the Dutchman looks like the team’s strongest option. He also appeared to conserve energy in the time trial with this stage firmly in mind.

Nico Denz has built a reputation for making the most of his rare opportunities. The Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider spends most of his time working for others, but he is always dangerous when given the freedom to join a breakaway. This stage could provide exactly that opportunity.

Jayco AlUla has several strong options, but Michael Matthews and Mauro Schmid stand out as the team’s leading contenders. The parcours appears ideally suited to Matthews, while Schmid has already demonstrated his outstanding form with a stage victory earlier in the race.

With Jonas Vingegaard out of the Tour de France, Visma | Lease a Bike has been forced to reassess its ambitions. Bruno Armirail already delivered a strong eighth place in the stage 16 time trial, but Matteo Jorgenson appears to be the team’s best option for this stage. The American is showing signs of recovery after his crash and illness and has already proven that he can win from a breakaway.

EF Education-EasyPost can rely on a formidable pairing in Michael Valgren and Kasper Asgreen. Valgren won a stage at this year’s Giro d’Italia and once again appears to be in excellent condition. Asgreen also has an impressive record in this type of race, having taken stage victories at last year’s Giro d’Italia and the 2023 Tour de France. Both riders should be highly motivated to seize this opportunity.

Vlad Van Mechelen has emerged as an intriguing option for Bahrain-Victorious after impressing at both the Belgian time trial championships and the Dauphiné. His recent performances suggest that he is ready to compete for a first Grand Tour stage victory. 

Teammate Matej Mohoric could prove invaluable, bringing considerable experience and an improving level of form. Having both riders in the breakaway would give Bahrain-Victorious a particularly strong hand.

Other riders worth watching include Fred Wright of Pinarello-Q36.5, Huub Artz of Lotto-Intermarché, Davide Ballerini of XDS Astana and Magnus Cort of Uno-X Mobility.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Pedersen

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Stuyven, Ganna

⭐⭐⭐  Van der Poel, Denz, Matthews

⭐⭐  Jorgenson, Valgren, Van Mechelen, Schmid

⭐  Asgreen, Wright, Artz, Ballerini, Cort

🃏  Mohoric