Tour de France stage 20 preview - Which breakaway specialist still has fuel in the tank?

The penultimate stage of this Tour is a hilly ride through the Jura and offers a chance for attackers. Got anything left in the tank? This could be your shot at eternal glory.

Start: 12:15 CET
Estimated arrival: 16:23 CET
Length stage: 184.2km 
Elevation gain: 2848m

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It’s set to be an explosive start, with the Col de la Croix de la Serra coming just 13 km in. While the gradients aren’t too steep, the climb is fairly long, so anyone hoping to make the breakaway will need to have strong legs.

Col de la Croix de la Serra (11.9km at 4.2%) - 159.9km to go
3rd category - 159.9km to go

After the descent, another climb follows immediately: the Valfin. Don’t expect any steep ramps on this forested ascent either. The question is whether the breakaway will have formed by then, or if new attacks will follow. I suspect the latter.

Côte de Valfin (5.7km at 4.3%)
4th category - 139.4 km to go

In fact, the road continues to rise steadily after the Valfin. The climb to Château-de-Prés isn’t categorized, but actually, it’s more of a category 4 climb. In total, it stretches 16 km at an average gradient of 3.0%. And so, the opening hour includes quite a lot of elevation gain.

After that comes a long middle section of rolling roads that mostly descend, with the intermediate sprint at 72.3 km. By this point, the race situation should normally have settled somewhat. Heading toward the Côte de Thésy, riders who struggle uphill might start to lose ground.

In terms of position on the course and difficulty, this climb is comparable to the Pas du Sant in stage 15 to Carcassonne. This climb can help decide who definitely won’t win, but it’s still far from the finish to create a decisive moment.

Côte de Thésy (3.5km at 9.1%) 
2nd category - 62.8km to go

After the Côte de Thésy, there’s another very long stretch heading northeast before the next categorized climb. Don’t underestimate this terrain, it's never flat in the Jura.

The final categorized climb begins in Longeville and takes its name from the town. Positioned close to the finish, it offers a perfect opportunity to launch an attack. After the climb, the wind will be at your back all the way to the finish.

Côte de Longeville (3.4km at 5.4%) 
4th category - 24.1km to go

And on the way to the finish, there’s a short climb of 2.7 km at 4.1%, located less than 12 km from the line. A possible final launchpad.

The final 7 km are flat. There are mostly long straight sections, which means there’s still a chance to catch back on if you’re riding in a small group.

Under the flamme rouge the road slopes uphill slightly, which might inspire a rider to make a late attack.

In the final 400 meters, there are two turns, crucial in a sprint, where positioning can make all the difference.

The riders enter the image from the right, coming out of the corner with just 150 metres to go. In case of a sprint, being the first to take that turn seems advantageous, especially with the wind at your back.

An unsettled afternoon in the Jura, with a high chance of showers and rain, especially in the second part of the stage. This will make it even more challenging. For most of the stage, there will be a light headwind, except in the final 20 km. Temperatures will be a fairly cool 19°C.

There’s a big chance this stage will go to a breakaway rider. However, the first part of the race could be chaotic, with possible involvement from some top-10 riders. A team might still decide midway to chase for their strong sprinter, but this is stage 20, and at this point, I don’t think we’ll see a sprint finish.

But who are the potential winners from the break? It may seem like half the peloton has a shot, but that’s not the case. This is a brutal route, and after three weeks of the Tour, it weighs even heavier. The first hour and a half of racing includes a lot of climbing, so getting into the break is no easy task. It’s also a matter of managing your effort wisely. So I’m mainly looking at riders with real depth and endurance, who’ve got still a bit of freshness in his legs. Fatigue plays a major role at this point.

The finale isn’t extremely tough, which means well-timed anticipation moves have a real chance of succeeding. That also makes a solo victory a realistic possibility. You need to climb well but you don’t have to be the best climber in the break.

Simmons is the name that keeps coming up as a potential winner. And rightly so, but he’ll also be closely marked by others, which could work against him in the final. He’s strong as a bear, but the question is: will he be clever enough to take the win?

I’m also thinking of the following riders, those with the engine at the end of the Tour and who are suited to this kind of course: Madouas, Powless, Schmid, Skujins, Mohoric. They haven’t had many opportunities in this Tour, so I do expect to see them up front, trying to go for the stage win.

Time trialists who can also climb and have the ability to make the difference with a solo effort: Foss, Romeo, Plapp, Asgreen. Dangerous category, if they have a gap, you don’t see them back.

The classic names Alaphilippe and van Aert will be marked and need to reach a very high level, I see a different type of rider winning.

Domestiques from Visma and UAE who are given freedom to ride their own race: Narvaez, Wellens, Campenaerts, Soler. Caution: they did a lot of domestique work. They may be logical picks, but they’ll need to have something left in the tank, and that’s far from guaranteed.

Other riders to keep an eye on: Sweeny, Baudin, Laurance, Aranburu, Lutsenko, Abrahamsen, Van den Broek and Grégoire. Not easy to win this stage for them, but if the pieces fall into place, you never know.