UAE vs Visma: Who has the strongest Tour de France squad?

UAE’s selection process was complicated by a difficult Giro d’Italia. Adam Yates, Marc Soler and Jay Vine were all injured in the second stage, while Jhonatan Narváez was forced to abandon late in the race. Soler remains sidelined, while Yates had to recover in time to secure his place. 

Sports director Andrej Hauptman admitted that UAE were prepared to wait as long as possible before making their final decision: “We still have to wait and see how the recovery of some riders progresses.” 

In the end, however, UAE still had plenty of options and were able to leave both Narváez and Pavel Sivakov at home. Both riders were part of the squad that helped Tadej Pogačar claim his fourth Tour de France victory last year.

Visma’s problems came even closer to the start. Christophe Laporte was ruled out after tearing a thigh muscle, before Wout van Aert’s elbow injury and subsequent infection removed one of Vingegaard’s most versatile helpers. 

Per Strand Hagenes and Davide Piganzoli were brought into the squad, while Edoardo Affini’s high-speed crash at the Italian time trial championships briefly raised another major concern. However, the Italian was cleared to start on Tuesday.

The clearest difference between the squads is experience. UAE’s riders have 37 previous Tour appearances between them, compared with 22 for Visma. Adam Yates and Nils Politt account for nine each, while Pogačar and Tim Wellens have six apiece. 

Visma’s total is led by Vingegaard and Kuss with five each, but the team also includes two Tour debutants in Piganzoli and Hagenes. That does not automatically make UAE stronger, but it gives Pogačar’s team a considerably larger bank of Tour experience which might be helpful.

To compare the strength of both squads, we have matched riders who are expected to perform similar roles within their respective teams.

Isaac del Toro and Matteo Jorgenson can be considered the key lieutenants for Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard respectively. They should be among the final teammates remaining alongside their leaders in the mountains, while their positions in the general classification could also give UAE Team Emirates-XRG and Team Visma | Lease a Bike an important tactical card to play. 

Both are capable of acting as secondary leaders, forcing the opposing team to respond if they attack or move up the road.

The 2026 Tour de France will mark Del Toro’s debut in La Grande Boucle, although it will be his third Grand Tour. He finished 36th at the 2024 Vuelta a España before producing his breakthrough performance at the 2025 Giro d’Italia. The Mexican wore the maglia rosa until the penultimate stage and eventually finished second overall after losing the race lead to Simon Yates on the Colle delle Finestre.

Del Toro has collected victories at an extraordinary rate since that Giro. His official 2025 season tally reached 16 wins before he added both Mexican national titles later in October. He has continued that momentum in 2026, winning the UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. Those three overall victories have established the twenty-two-year-old as far more than simply a talented prospect.

His preparation was interrupted by a crash on stage 3 of the Itzulia Basque Country, where he suffered a muscle tear in his right thigh and several abrasions. The injury ended his Ardennes campaign and kept him out of competition until the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. His response there was emphatic, winning consecutive mountain stages at the Grand Colombier and Plateau de Solaison to take the overall title.

Jorgenson was present for two of Del Toro’s major victories this season. The American finished second at Tirreno-Adriatico, 40 seconds behind the Mexican, and acknowledged afterwards that “Del Toro was stronger at every turn”. 

Jorgenson had shifted his spring focus from the cobbled Classics to the Ardennes, but a crash at the Amstel Gold Race left him with a fractured collarbone and forced him to miss La Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. He returned at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and finished fourth overall, 1 minute and 36 seconds behind Del Toro.

Unlike Del Toro, Jorgenson already has considerable Tour experience. He has started the race four times, including the past two editions in support of Vingegaard. In 2024, he finished eighth overall and came close to winning the mountain stage to Isola 2000 before Pogačar caught him inside the final two kilometres. His 2025 Tour proved more difficult. Jorgenson dropped from fifth to tenth overall after losing ten minutes on the Hautacam stage and later struggled with bronchitis, eventually finishing 19th.

Jorgenson has the advantage in Tour experience and is probably the more versatile of the two, but Del Toro appears to have more natural climbing ability and could therefore have a greater influence on the moments when the race is likely to be decided.

UAE 1 - Visma 0

Adam Yates and Sepp Kuss are the most experienced mountain domestiques in their respective teams. Both have spent several Tours riding deep into the mountains alongside their leaders and will be expected to take over once the group of favourites has been reduced. Unlike Del Toro and Jorgenson, they are less likely to be used as protected riders, although both have shown that they can still become dangerous tactical options.

Yates has the stronger Tour record. The 2026 edition will be his tenth appearance and his fourth with UAE Team Emirates-XRG. He won the opening stage in Bilbao and finished third overall in 2023, before placing sixth a year later while helping Pogačar to overall victory.

The Briton started 2026 well by winning both a mountain stage and the general classification at O Gran Camiño. His Giro d’Italia ended almost immediately, however. Yates crashed heavily on stage 2 and did not start the following day after developing concussion symptoms. It means there is still some uncertainty around his condition, although he will also arrive at the Tour with far fewer racing kilometres in his legs than originally planned

Kuss had a very different Giro. The American helped Vingegaard win the overall classification and was given his own opportunity during the final week. He took it by winning the queen stage in the Dolomites, completing his set of stage victories in all three Grand Tours. Kuss eventually finished 13th overall, underlining that he came through the race in strong condition.

This will be Kuss’ sixth Tour. He won a stage in Andorra in 2021 and played an important role in Vingegaard’s victories in 2022 and 2023. He missed the 2024 edition after failing to recover from a Covid infection, before returning to the Tour in 2025. Few riders know Vingegaard’s climbing rhythm better, and Kuss’ role is usually clear: stay with his leader for as long as possible on the hardest climbs.

One thing is certain: Kuss has shown that he can handle multiple Grand Tours in quick succession. He proved that most convincingly in 2023, when he won the Vuelta a España in what was already his third Grand Tour of the season.

This is a difficult comparison. In recent years, there have been occasions when Yates has dropped Kuss in the mountains, and others when Kuss has done the same to Yates. However, Kuss has enjoyed the smoother preparation for the Tour, which is enough to give him a slight edge.

UAE 1 - Visma 1

Brandon McNulty and Davide Piganzoli are likely to start the Tour just below their teams’ main mountain lieutenants in the hierarchy. Both should play an important role once the road begins to climb, although they bring different qualities. McNulty is the stronger time triallist and the more versatile rider, while Piganzoli is more of a traditional climber.

For McNulty, this will be a return to the Tour after four years away. He rode the race in 2021 and 2022, with his performance on the road to Peyragudes in the latter edition still standing out. His pace reduced the group to just Pogačar, Vingegaard and himself, before he finished third on the stage. It remains one of the clearest examples of what the American can offer Pogačar in the high mountains.

McNulty has developed into a much stronger stage racer since then. He finished ninth at the 2025 Giro d’Italia and ended the season with overall victories at the Tour de Pologne, Tour de Luxembourg and CRO Race. He also won the GP Montréal after going clear with Pogačar and taking the victory from their two-man move.

His preparation for this Tour was less straightforward. A crash at Paris-Nice left him with abrasions and a knee injury, while a virus later interrupted his training. He nevertheless returned strongly at the Tour de Suisse, where he helped set up Pogačar’s long-range attack on the opening stage and finished sixth overall.

Piganzoli will make his Tour debut after receiving a late call to replace Wout van Aert. The Italian joined Visma at the start of this season and has quickly shown why the team sees him as a future general classification rider. 

At the Giro, he worked for Vingegaard while also finishing eighth overall and second in the young rider classification. He was particularly impressive on the climbs, including a third place behind Vingegaard and Felix Gall at Corno alle Scale.

There were few signs of Giro fatigue when Piganzoli returned to racing at La Route d’Occitanie. He attacked on the Col de Val Louron Azet, rode alone for almost forty kilometres and secured both the stage and overall victory. That performance confirmed that he arrives in Barcelona with strong form, although riding the Giro and Tour in close succession will be a new test for him.

Piganzoli may have the edge as a pure climber, but McNulty offers more across the full three weeks. His time trial strength will be valuable in the opening team time trial, while he has already shown that he can stay with Pogačar and Vingegaard deep into a Tour mountain stage. 

Piganzoli’s recent form makes this a close comparison, but there is still some uncertainty over how the young Italian will cope with riding a second Grand Tour in quick succession. McNulty’s versatility and previous Tour experience therefore give him the slight advantage.

UAE 2 - Visma 1

Felix Großschartner and Bruno Armirail are likely to fill similar positions within their teams. Neither will be expected to stay with Pogačar or Vingegaard on the final kilometres of the hardest climbs, but both can do important work earlier in the stage. They also bring enough power against the clock to be valuable in the opening team time trial.

Großschartner has a stronger record in the mountains. The Austrian has spent much of his time at UAE Team Emirates-XRG working for other leaders, but he has also produced solid results of his own in the past. 

He finished ninth and tenth overall at the Vuelta a España in 2020 and 2021 (riding for Bora-Hansgrohe) respectively, demonstrating his consistency in demanding stage races with significant climbing. He has also proven himself to be a strong time trialist, recording numerous top 10 finishes in recent years.

He has only once been part of Pogačar’s Tour squad after joining the Emirati team, in 2023. Großschartner was not selected in either 2024 or 2025, the two editions won by the Slovenian.

Armirail joined Visma this season after spending two years with Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale. The Dutch team signed him specifically to strengthen its Grand Tour roster, and his inclusion in the Tour squad at the first opportunity shows how highly his qualities are rated within the team.

The Frenchman has won his national time trial title three times, in 2022, 2024 and 2025. He also finished fourth in the long time trial at the 2025 Tour de France, missing the podium behind Edoardo Affini by just two seconds. His power should make him particularly valuable in the opening team time trial and on stages where Vingegaard needs protection from the wind or help with positioning.

Armirail has also shown that he can remain effective when the road becomes more difficult. At the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, he spent much of the first major mountain stage in the breakaway and moved up to second overall. That is what makes him especially interesting in Visma’s system. 

The team has repeatedly shown that it can turn riders with a big engine into valuable support riders on demanding terrain, rather than using them only on flat roads and in time trials.

That potential gives Armirail the edge in this comparison. Großschartner has the stronger record in mountainous stage races, but we expect the Frenchman to match him on the climbs and make a greater overall impact during this Tour.

UAE 2 - Visma 2

Tim Wellens and Victor Campenaerts are likely to take on many of the less visible but crucial jobs for their leaders. Both can protect their team in the wind, control breakaways and set a hard pace before the main climbers take over. 

This will be Wellens’ seventh Tour and his third consecutive appearance alongside Pogačar. He played his part in the Slovenian’s victories in 2024 and 2025, while also receiving his own opportunity last summer. Wellens took full advantage by attacking from the breakaway and riding solo for more than 40 kilometres to win in Carcassonne. 

Campenaerts finished second that day, 1 minute and 28 seconds behind him. It was Wellens’ first Tour stage victory and completed his collection of stage wins in all three Grand Tours.

Wellens’ spring campaign was disrupted by a broken collarbone, but he showed at the Tour de Suisse that he had recovered in time for the Tour. His fifth place in the time trial was an encouraging sign of his form and also underlined the value he can bring to UAE in the opening team time trial in Barcelona.

Campenaerts will start his fifth Tour and his second with Visma. He joined the team in 2025 and quickly became one of Vingegaard’s most important support riders. Although he was once best known as a time trial specialist and breakaway rider, he regularly remained with the leading group until deep into the mountain stages during last year’s Tour. That transformation has made him far more valuable than his traditional rouleur profile might suggest.

The Belgian has already completed the Giro this season, where he helped Vingegaard win the overall classification, and will now attempt the Giro and Tour combination for the first time. Campenaerts admitted before the season that he had never completed the two races in succession. 

That brings some uncertainty over how fresh he will be in the final week, although his Giro performance suggested that he remains capable of doing demanding work on a wide variety of terrain.

There is very little to separate Wellens and Campenaerts. Both are experienced, dependable riders who can play a crucial role across the full three weeks. They are likely to be invaluable to their respective teams, making this comparison too close to call.

UAE 3 - Visma 3

Nils Politt and Edoardo Affini are the main engines in their respective squads. They will be expected to keep their leaders out of trouble, control the peloton and take responsibility when the race is fast or exposed. Both should also play a major role in the opening team time trial in Barcelona.

Politt is preparing for his tenth consecutive Tour appearance. He joined UAE Team Emirates-XRG in 2024 and was part of the team behind Pogačar’s victories in both of the past two editions. His long turns at the front have become a familiar sight, often continuing well beyond the point at which a rider of his size might normally be expected to disappear.

The German arrives in good condition after reclaiming his national time trial title by just one second. He also finished ninth at Paris-Roubaix earlier this season and looks ready to once again shoulder a huge workload for his team.

Affini is only starting his second Tour, but Visma clearly see him as a central figure on the flat. The Italian was the European time trial champion in 2024 and has been part of the Dutch team since 2021. Team manager Marc Reef described him as someone who can “practically carry a team leader in his back pocket”, which says plenty about the protection he can offer Vingegaard.

His final preparation was disrupted by a heavy crash at the Italian time trial championships. Affini escaped without any fractures, although he suffered a deep cut that required stitches. He has been cleared to start, but it is hardly the ideal way to enter a race in which Visma will need him from the opening kilometres.

There is little between them in terms of raw power, and Affini may even have the edge as a pure time trial specialist. Politt, however, has completed nine Tours, has repeatedly shown his value on rolling terrain and arrives without the uncertainty of a late crash. That gives the German a narrow advantage.

UAE 4 - Visma 3

Florian Vermeersch and Per Strand Hagenes are the kind of riders every Tour team needs. They can take on much of the hard work, keep their leaders out of trouble and remain useful when the race becomes more demanding. That profile also fits the approach Visma have increasingly taken in recent years, giving powerful Classics riders an important role in their Tour squad.

Vermeersch returns to the Tour for the first time since 2023, having completed the race twice before. Since joining UAE Team Emirates-XRG, he has become an important part of Pogačar’s Classics support team. 

He helped the Slovenian win Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders this spring, making a particularly strong impression with his acceleration on the Molenberg. Vermeersch also finished third at both Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and the E3 Saxo Classic, before placing seventh in Flanders himself.

Hagenes will make both his Tour and Grand Tour debut. The 22-year-old has enjoyed his strongest season to date, finishing second at the E3 Saxo Classic, one place ahead of Vermeersch, before winning the Antwerp Port Epic in May. He was also part of Visma’s winning team time trial squad at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes.

The Tour represents a major step into the unknown for Hagenes. Vermeersch has more experience, a stronger record in the biggest one-day races and already knows what it takes to complete three weeks at the Tour. That gives the Belgian the upper hand.

UAE 5 - Visma 3

The final score gives UAE Team Emirates-XRG a slight advantage, thanks to their greater Tour experience and the proven quality throughout the squad.

Visma, however, may be every bit their equal in the mountains, where the race is most likely to be decided. With two teams so evenly matched, another fascinating tactical battle seems inevitable.

Ultimately, the form of Pogačar and Vingegaard will remain the dominant factor in determining the outcome of the Tour.