Who will be cycling's next first-time Grand Tour winner? The seven leading contenders

Only five riders have won their first Grand Tour since the start of 2022. Across 15 editions of the Giro d'Italia, Tour de France and Vuelta a España, opportunities for a new winner have been few and far between.

Enric Mas was the latest to join that list in September, when he won the Vuelta a España at 31, having previously finished runner-up three times.

Much of that scarcity comes down to two riders. Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard have won eight of those 15 Grand Tours between them, leaving the rest of the peloton to fight over the remaining seven.

Even then, the circumstances have often needed to fall into place. Jai Hindley's 2022 Giro, Remco Evenepoel's 2022 Vuelta and Mas's victory this September all came in races neither Pogačar nor Vingegaard finished. Pogačar had been leading this year's Vuelta when he crashed out on stage 8, marking the first Grand Tour abandonment of his career.

There is no obvious blueprint for becoming a first-time winner, either. Evenepoel was just 22 when he claimed the Vuelta, Vingegaard was 25, Hindley 26, Sepp Kuss 29 and Mas 31. Three had previously finished second in a Grand Tour, while Evenepoel and Kuss won without having reached the podium before.

Looking ahead to 2027, the Giro d'Italia could offer the clearest opportunity.

Pogačar has named the Tour, Vuelta and World Championships among his main objectives, while Vingegaard has yet to decide whether he will defend his Giro title.

For the riders still chasing their first overall victory, choosing the right Grand Tour could be just as important as their form. Some have already come agonisingly close. Others are fighting for leadership within their own teams.

These are the seven leading contenders.

Paul Seixas has achieved in one season what has taken most riders on this list several years. He won the Tour de l’Avenir in his first year as a professional. In April, he won Itzulia Basque Country by 2:30 over Florian Lipowitz, including victory in the time trial, and became the first Frenchman to win a WorldTour stage race since Christophe Moreau at the 2007 Dauphiné.

He also won La Flèche Wallonne and finished second to Pogačar at Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. In October, he became the youngest winner of Il Lombardia. His only major setback came at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, where a crash on stage 7 derailed his race and forced him to abandon the following day.

On his Tour de France debut, aged 19, he finished fourth overall, 11:56 behind Pogačar. He entered stage 20 just 24 seconds behind Del Toro and put his team to work on the Col de Sarenne. But when Del Toro attacked, Seixas cracked and lost almost two minutes.

Seixas has told RMC Sport that the Giro is a genuine option for 2027, although the World Championships in Haute-Savoie in August remain a major priority. With Felix Gall leaving for Lidl-Trek, Decathlon has strengthened its Grand Tour squad with the signings of Ben O’Connor, Pavel Sivakov and Laurens De Plus, giving Seixas additional support in the mountains.

Isaac del Toro has come closer to winning a Grand Tour than anyone else on this list. At just 21, he led the 2025 Giro d’Italia into the final weekend, only for Simon Yates to snatch the pink jersey from him on the penultimate stage.

His 2026 season showed that his Giro performance was no one-off. Del Toro won the UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes before the Tour de France, adding the Deutschland Tour in August. On his Tour debut, he won stage 2 on Montjuïc and finished third overall, 9:42 behind Pogačar, becoming the first Mexican to reach the Tour podium.

Remarkably, he achieved that while working for Pogačar and, by his own admission, struggling with illness during the final week. On the queen stage to Alpe d’Huez, however, the roles were reversed. Pogačar worked for Del Toro from the Galibier onwards, helping the Mexican extend his advantage over Paul Seixas from just 24 seconds to 2:14 and secure third place and the white jersey.

Del Toro's biggest obstacle may be the strength of his own team. As long as Pogačar leads UAE at the Tour, the Mexican's best chance of leading a Grand Tour is likely to come elsewhere. The Giro looks the obvious option for 2027. Its flat time trial into Milan could cost him time against stronger time triallists, but a route packed with climbing should play to his strengths.

Felix Gall has established himself as one of the most consistent Grand Tour riders in the peloton, finishing inside the top five in each of his last three appearances. He was fifth at the 2025 Tour de France, second to Vingegaard at this year's Giro, 5:22 behind, and third behind Mas and Primož Roglič at the Vuelta.

The Vuelta exposed both his strengths and his biggest weakness. Gall entered the 32.1km time trial in Jerez second overall, 2:06 behind Mas. But he could only manage 25th on the stage, losing 55 seconds to Mas and 1:28 to Roglič, dropping to third overall.

Two days later, back in the mountains, Gall responded. On the final mountain stage to the Collado del Alguacil, he was among the strongest climbers, gaining time on Roglič but ultimately finishing the Vuelta just 29 seconds short of second place. He later admitted that he had raced too defensively.

The 28-year-old will join Lidl-Trek in 2027 on a three-year deal, with trusted teammate Gregor Mühlberger following him from Decathlon. The Giro looks a likely target, and its uphill time trial to Campo di Giove should suit Gall. But the flat 37.3km test from Monza to Milan is a different proposition. Judging by his performance in Jerez, he could once again find himself needing to recover significant time in the mountains.

João Almeida has more Grand Tour top-five finishes than anyone else on this list, with five. He was third at the 2023 Giro and fourth at the 2024 Tour, before coming closest to an overall victory at the 2025 Vuelta, where he finished second, just 1:16 behind Vingegaard, and won the stage to the Angliru.

His 2026 season, however, was derailed by illness. A viral infection left him 38th at the Volta a Catalunya and ruled him out of the Giro. He subsequently abandoned the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes before the mountain stages and crashed out of the Tour de Pologne just two weeks before the Vuelta.

Almeida entered the Vuelta in a supporting role for Pogačar and was one of only four UAE riders to reach Granada. There were signs of his old form, particularly in the time trial to Jerez, where he finished third, just nine seconds behind Stefan Küng. But he admitted afterwards that he was still some way from his best. According to AS, UAE staff suggested that an illness as serious as his could affect a rider's ability to compete at the highest level for close to a year.

At 28, Almeida still has time to add a Grand Tour victory to his palmares. But even if he returns to full fitness, securing a leadership role at UAE could prove difficult. With Pogačar firmly established as the team's leading Grand Tour rider and Del Toro emerging as another contender, Almeida faces growing competition for opportunities in 2027.

Florian Lipowitz finished third on his Tour de France debut in 2025 and won the white jersey, becoming the first German to reach the Tour podium since Andreas Klöden in 2006.

He continued that form in 2026, finishing second to Seixas at Itzulia Basque Country and winning the Tour of Slovenia. At the Tour de France, he entered the stage 16 time trial fifth overall, just 50 seconds behind third place. But his race ended in the final kilometres when he crashed on a fast right-hand bend, breaking his collarbone and requiring surgery. His teammate Remco Evenepoel won the stage that same afternoon.

Lipowitz's prospects for 2027 are complicated by the competition for leadership at Red Bull. Evenepoel is expected to target the Tour, where 71km of individual time trialling should suit him, while Giulio Pellizzari is another candidate to lead the team at the Giro. Both races remain possibilities for Lipowitz, but with several Grand Tour contenders in the squad, securing a clear leadership role could prove his biggest challenge.

Oscar Onley finished fourth at the 2025 Tour de France with Picnic-PostNL, just 1:12 behind Florian Lipowitz in the battle for the final podium place. He joined Netcompany-Ineos ahead of the 2026 season, but injuries disrupted his campaign and forced him to miss the Tour. He returned to Grand Tour racing at the Vuelta, where he led the British team.

Despite further setbacks, including illness and a crash, Onley spent much of the race inside the top five and consolidated his position with a strong time trial in Jerez. But on the final mountain stage, he lost contact with the favourites, while a long-range attack from Sepp Kuss lifted the American from 11th to fifth overall and pushed Onley down to sixth.

“I just missed ten metres on top of Monachil, the first time, and then the gap just exploded,” Onley said afterwards.

There was some consolation. Onley became the first British rider to win the Vuelta's white jersey, finishing ahead of Jakob Omrzel. The Tour is expected to be his main target in 2027, where he will hope to build on his fourth place in 2025 and establish himself as a genuine podium contender once again.

Juan Ayuso announced himself as a Grand Tour contender when he finished third at the 2022 Vuelta a España at just 19 years old, before taking fourth a year later. He left UAE Team Emirates-XRG for Lidl-Trek ahead of the 2026 season and made an encouraging start, winning the Volta ao Algarve by 14 seconds over Paul Seixas.

His first Tour de France as a Lidl-Trek leader initially went to plan. Ayuso took the white jersey from Isaac del Toro after stage 10 and climbed to fourth overall. He was still fifth after stage 18, but his podium hopes unravelled in the Alps, where he lost more than eight minutes. He eventually finished seventh in Paris, behind teammate Mattias Skjelmose.

At 24, Ayuso still has plenty of time to turn his early Grand Tour promise into an overall victory. But the competition for leadership at Lidl-Trek is growing. With Felix Gall joining Skjelmose and Derek Gee-West in the team's Grand Tour squad for 2027, opportunities will need to be shared. Gall is expected to target the Giro, leaving the Tour as Ayuso's most likely objective. 

But if he does line up at the Grand Départ, with Pogačar and Vingegaard likely to be among his rivals, Ayuso would hardly be the leading candidate to become cycling's next first-time Grand Tour winner.