5 favourites for the 2026 Tour de France green jersey

ASO has reshaped the Tour de France points classification for 2026, with the changes clearly designed to put pure sprinters back at the heart of the battle for green. Flat stage victories will now earn 70 points instead of 50, while each flat stage will feature two intermediate sprints. 

Under the new system, these riders appear best placed to challenge for the jersey.

ASO’s revised points system could transform Tim Merlier from an outsider into one of the leading contenders for the green jersey. With more points available on flat stages, the Belgian now has a far clearer route to the classification than under the previous format.

Few riders can match Merlier for pure speed. The experienced Belgian is widely regarded as one of the finest sprinters in the world, combining explosive acceleration with a rare ability to recover from poor positioning. Even when boxed in or forced to improvise, he often finds a way through before unleashing his devastating finishing kick.

The challenge will be consistency. Merlier may need to dominate the majority of the bunch sprints and collect points at the intermediate sprints to build a winning total. Under the new system, however, the green jersey is no longer beyond his reach.

The 2023 Tour de France green jersey victor returns to the Tour de France after crashing out of the 2025 Tour in the early stages. The crash came on stage 3 after he had taken the yellow jersey on the opening stage and had looked in fine form to take a second Tour green jersey, which ultimately didn’t come to fruition. 

Philipsen’s 2026 has seen just the two victories, coming in at Danilith Nokere Koerse and In Flanders Fields - From Middelkerke to Wevelgem, but his sprinting performances have been steady overall.

Philipsen heads into the Tour after competing in the Copenhagen Sprint and the Baloise Belgium Tour, and appears primed and ready for a shot at the green jersey. 

Combine that with the sprint train that Alpecin-Premier Tech is bringing, with Mathieu van der Poel set to lead out Philipsen, combined with Philipsen’s natural sprinting ability, we think Philipsen will be a force to be reckoned with, especially in the second week of the Tour

Biniam Girmay will also be aiming to win the second green jersey of his career, come July. The Eritrean superstar made the switch to NSN from Intermarche-Wanty for the 2026 season, and we could see the rewards of that move in July, with NSN perhaps able to suit Girmay’s shot at the green jersey better. 

Girmay ticks all the boxes for what is needed to win the green jersey, as evidenced by his 2024 win, and if he can recreate that form, then Girmay is bound to be a strong challenger.

Girmay has three victories to his name in 2026, coming at the Volta Comunitat Valenciana with a stage and the points classification as well as winning the Clasica de Almeria. Girmay’s spring classics were steady, with a few podiums and top finishes and his last race before the Tour was the Brussels Cycling Classic, where he finished third.

Girmay, with his ability to get into breakaways in the Tour and his overall climbing ability for a sprinter, could see him make the difference in the fight for the green jersey at the intermediate sprints on stages.

The Dane has come close to winning the green jersey at the Tour before, coming second in 2023, and only needs the green jersey at the Tour to complete his collection of grand tour points classifications after Pedersen won the Vuelta and Giro points jerseys in 2025. “It’s been a big wish of mine for many years to win the Green Jersey,” Pedersen told the media during Lidl Trek’s media day in winter.

With Pedersen able to get himself into breakaways and all that jazz, especially on the climbing days of the Tour, it will be a difficult task in the sprint stages with the quality of the sprinting talent at the Tour.

After ASO has changed the points distribution for the 2026 Tour de France, Pedersen faces an uphill task, considering the likes of Merlier, Philipsen, and Girmay will be scoring hefty chunks of points.

Olav Kooij joined Decathlon CMA CGM with one clear ambition: to race the Tour de France. For a while, however, that opportunity appeared increasingly uncertain, with the French team considering whether to build its Tour plans around rising star Paul Seixas.

Kooij strengthened his case at the Belgium Tour, just two weeks before the Grand Départ. The Dutchman defeated an elite sprint field featuring Jasper Philipsen, Tim Merlier and Biniam Girmay, producing a powerful late surge to edge Merlier by half a wheel.

The victory underlined Kooij’s speed and form ahead of the Tour. It also added to an already impressive Grand Tour record. In two appearances at the Giro d’Italia for Visma | Lease a Bike, he claimed three stage wins in total.

Kooij’s ability to cope with tougher terrain could also make him a contender for the green jersey, particularly if he can collect multiple stage wins. Much will depend, however, on how Decathlon CMA CGM balances his sprint ambitions with the general classification campaign of Tour debutant Paul Seixas.

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