5 favourites for the 2026 Tour de France polka dot jersey

He was close in 2025, coming in third in the classification behind Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar, finishing 22 points off the Slovenian. Martinez will be aiming to follow in the footsteps of his grandfather, Mariano Martinez, who won the polka-dot jersey at the 1978 Tour de France. Martinez has previously expressed his desire to emulate the achievements of his grandfather

After a solid 2026 season so far with some strong general classification results in major WorldTour races, such as Paris-Nice, where he finished 5th, the Bahrain Victorious rider has a dilemma to ponder. 

And that is whether or not he goes for a high placing in the general classification or decides to hunt the polka-dot jersey, and we believe it will be the latter simply because the level of the general classification contenders is perhaps a cut above the level of Martinez.

Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS-Astana) has already won one king of the mountains classification and that was the jersey at the 2025 Giro d’Italia. Intriguingly, Lorenzo Fortunato, at 30-years-old, will be making his Tour de France debut after the Italian participated predominantly in the Giro and the Vuelta, apart of many breakaways and successes. 

Can he bring his attacking prowess to the Tour?

For Fortunato to have a shot at the polka-dot jersey, the Italian will have to get himself into the majority of breakaways of the Tour, which he is quite capable of. If a breakaway even gets a shot at a stage win on a mountainous day, then Fortunato is bound to be right up there for the win, which could bring home 50 points, and that could energise a charge at the jersey even further. 

Fortunato has been climbing well in 2026, with strong efforts in the Basque Country and the Tour de Romandie, where the Italian took two 4th-place stage finishes with his stage 5 finish just 11 seconds off of Pogačar and just behind Lipowitz and Roglič. Fortunato's Dauphine, however, didn't go to plan.

Tadej Pogačar will begin the Tour de France as the clear favourite for the polka dot jersey. The Slovenian has already won the mountains classification three times, in 2020, 2021 and 2025, and his status as the leading contender for the yellow jersey only strengthens his chances of adding another.

Much will depend on how his expected battle with Jonas Vingegaard develops in the second and third weeks. Both riders are likely to collect substantial mountains points once the race reaches the high mountains, particularly on summit finish stages. With 50 points available to the winner on key mountain stages, a series of victories could quickly shape the classification.

Pogačar has repeatedly shown that few riders can match him when he attacks on the final climb. Should he again turn the major mountain stages into direct duels with Vingegaard, the contest for yellow could also decide the polka dot jersey.

Vingegaard remains an obvious threat, especially if the pair divide the summit finish victories between them. Even so, Pogačar appears the more likely of the two to lead the mountains classification in Paris, largely because he is expected to win more of the decisive uphill finishes.

A real KOM hunter, Giulio Ciccone, is a previous winner of the polka-dot jersey. He won the jersey in 2023 ahead of Felix Gall and Jonas Vingegaard. But not only that, Ciccone has won two King of the Mountains jerseys with just the Vuelta missing from his collection. 

His most recent was at the 2026 Giro d'Italia, where it was somewhat trademark Ciccone, with attacks full of passion and even sometimes anger, powering him to take the jersey, securing it on stage 20 ahead of Jonas Vingegaard. 

Will we see Ciccone attempt to repeat a similar feat at the 2026 Tour de France? You could almost bet your house on it.

Ciccone is heading into the Tour with no racing in between the Giro and Tour de France, using the weeks building up as preparation for La Grande Boucle.

Jayco AlUla's Ben O'Connor has not had the best of 2026 seasons so far, with a rather disappointing Giro d'Italia where the West Aussie finished 16th in the general classification, perhaps way out where he was expecting to do so. 

If that general classification form follows through from the Giro to the Tour de France, then O'Connor will have no chance to achieve a top ten in the general classification in 2026, so we believe he would be suited better to going into breakaways, chasing stage wins, and in turn, picking up points in the King of the Mountains fight.

If O'Connor can repeat his efforts from 2025, when he won on Col de La Loze, then O'Connor will be in good standing, but again, his Giro was not the best, and he has never won a King of the Mountains Classification at a Grand Tour, but if he does truly make an effort for it then he will be a big contender.

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