5 favourites for the 2026 Tour de France polka dot jersey
The battle for the polka dot jersey often comes down to a clash between general classification contenders and riders who make the KOM classification their main goal. Tadej Pogačar took the jersey in 2025, but who could succeed him in 2026? Here are five leading contenders.
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How does the KOM classification work?
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Tour de France jerseys explained: Yellow, green, polka dot and white
Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious)
He was close in 2025, coming in third in the classification behind Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar, finishing 22 points off the Slovenian. Martinez will be aiming to follow in the footsteps of his grandfather, Mariano Martinez, who won the polka-dot jersey at the 1978 Tour de France. Martinez has previously expressed his desire to emulate the achievements of his grandfather
After a solid 2026 season so far with some strong general classification results in major WorldTour races, such as Paris-Nice, where he finished 5th, the Bahrain Victorious rider has a dilemma to ponder.
And that is whether or not he goes for a high placing in the general classification or decides to hunt the polka-dot jersey, and we believe it will be the latter simply because the level of the general classification contenders is perhaps a cut above the level of Martinez.
Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step)
The Frenchman claimed a famous victory atop Mont Ventoux last summer, underlining his climbing credentials in his debut Tour de France. Paret-Peintre would go on to finish sixth overall in the mountains classification, and this year, the 25-year-old could continue to rise up the rankings.
With the departure of Remco Evenepoel to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, Paret-Peintre should find himself with more freedom and reason to want to get in breakaways to chase stage victories and potentially the polka dot jersey.
This season has seen Paret-Peintre reiterate his climbing ability with results including finishing fourth at the Volta a Catalunya, as well as finishing runner-up in the mountains classification at Paris-Nice behind Jonas Vingegaard.
The last French winner of the polka dot jersey at the men's Tour de France was Romain Bardet back in 2019, and Paret-Peintre could well be among the home contenders capable of breaking the drought.
Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
Tadej Pogačar will begin the Tour de France as the clear favourite for the polka dot jersey. The Slovenian has already won the mountains classification three times, in 2020, 2021 and 2025, and his status as the leading contender for the yellow jersey only strengthens his chances of adding another.
Much will depend on how his expected battle with Jonas Vingegaard develops in the second and third weeks. Both riders are likely to collect substantial mountains points once the race reaches the high mountains, particularly on summit finish stages. With 50 points available to the winner on key mountain stages, a series of victories could quickly shape the classification.
Pogačar has repeatedly shown that few riders can match him when he attacks on the final climb. Should he again turn the major mountain stages into direct duels with Vingegaard, the contest for yellow could also decide the polka dot jersey.
Vingegaard remains an obvious threat, especially if the pair divide the summit finish victories between them. Even so, Pogačar appears the more likely of the two to lead the mountains classification in Paris, largely because he is expected to win more of the decisive uphill finishes.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)
A proven climber and fearless attacker, Richard Carapaz is a previous winner of the polka dot jersey. He claimed the classification at the 2024 Tour de France, where he also won the stage to SuperDévoluy and briefly wore the yellow jersey.
Carapaz heads into the 2026 Tour with renewed confidence after finishing second behind Tadej Pogačar at the Tour de Suisse. It marked a strong return after surgery forced him to spend more than three weeks off the bike and miss the Giro d’Italia.
Rather than targeting the general classification, the Ecuadorian will focus on stage victories and another mountains jersey. With several key teammates struggling with injuries, Carapaz believes EF Education-EasyPost cannot offer the support required for a serious podium challenge.
Will we see Carapaz repeat his 2024 success? With his attacking style and ability to pick the right breakaway, he will be one of the main riders to watch in the mountains. His dream target is clear: a stage victory on Alpe d’Huez.
Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla)
Jayco AlUla's Ben O'Connor has not had the best of 2026 seasons so far, with a rather disappointing Giro d'Italia where the West Aussie finished 16th in the general classification, perhaps way out where he was expecting to do so.
If that general classification form follows through from the Giro to the Tour de France, then O'Connor will have no chance to achieve a top ten in the general classification in 2026, so we believe he would be suited better to going into breakaways, chasing stage wins, and in turn, picking up points in the King of the Mountains fight.
If O'Connor can repeat his efforts from 2025, when he won on Col de La Loze, then O'Connor will be in good standing, but again, his Giro was not the best, and he has never won a King of the Mountains Classification at a Grand Tour, but if he does truly make an effort for it then he will be a big contender.
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