Heat could tilt Tour de France stage five towards Jasper Philipsen, if the numbers are any guide
France is in the grip of a heatwave, and the Tour de France is feeling it. After the UCI relaxed feeding rules during Tuesday’s scorching fourth stage to help riders cool down, another hot day awaits on Wednesday. For Jasper Philipsen, that may not be bad news.
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Riders have been increasingly vocal about the conditions. Matteo Trentin was blunt earlier this week, saying: “I don’t know if it’s safe, but it’s not healthy at all.” Tadej Pogacar also admitted he felt the heat early on stage four, saying he started the day with “a full headache” and feared it would become “one long day.”
Yet while the heat is clearly taking a toll on the peloton, recent results suggest it does not affect every rider in the same way.
Mads Pedersen won stage four in extreme conditions, and data shared by Velofacts on X suggests that was not entirely unexpected. The dataset lists the hottest Grand Tour stages of the Strava era, with examples going back to 2014. One pattern stands out: certain sprinters keep winning when the temperature climbs.
Pedersen is one of them. His stage four win in this Tour came in an average temperature of 39.9 degrees Celsius, making it the hottest Grand Tour stage he has won. It adds to a notable list. The Dane also won stage 16 of the 2022 Vuelta a España at 36.6 degrees, stage 13 of that same Vuelta at 35.9 degrees, and stage 13 of the 2022 Tour de France, also at 35.9 degrees.
But there is another name that appears even more frequently: Jasper Philipsen.
The Belgian sprinter has built an impressive record in extreme heat. He won stage 15 of the 2022 Tour de France in 39.5 degrees Celsius, stage two of the 2021 Vuelta in 37.3 degrees, stage five of that same Vuelta in 36.6 degrees, stage seven of the 2023 Tour in 35.8 degrees and stage 16 of the 2024 Tour in 35.7 degrees.
That makes Wednesday’s fifth stage all the more intriguing. Another hot day awaits in France, and the numbers suggest Philipsen is not merely able to cope with such conditions, but has often thrived in them.
The route only adds to his appeal: a sprint stage with climbing, fatigue in the legs and a demanding finale should not scare the Alpecin-Premier Tech rider. If anything, it may narrow the field in his favour. Backed by one of the strongest lead out trains in the race, Philipsen looks every inch a prime contender.
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