Tour de France stage 16 preview: Can Evenepoel go back-to-back with a time trial masterclass?

The final week of the Tour de France begins with a crucial individual time trial. At just under 26 kilometres, the stage may appear relatively short, but its combination of climbing, descending and technical roads makes it one of the toughest tests in this year’s race.

Its position on the calendar adds another layer of uncertainty. The time trial comes directly after the final rest day, which can affect riders in very different ways. Some will return refreshed, while others may struggle to rediscover their rhythm. For the general classification contenders, a proper recovery ride on Monday could prove essential.

Key information:

• Start: 13:00 (CET)
• Estimated finish time: 17:50 (CET)
• Stage type: Time trial
• Stage length: 25.97km
• Elevation gain: 465m

Follow stage 16 live at Domestique with our live reporting and the start order can be found here.

The course can be divided into three distinct sections, each demanding a different set of skills.

There is little time for riders to settle into their effort, as the stage immediately heads uphill towards the Côte de Larringes. The opening climb is almost ten kilometres long. Its gradients are not especially steep, meaning the strongest time trial specialists should be able to remain in an aerodynamic position for much of the ascent.

A short plateau of approximately 1.7 kilometres follows before the riders begin a technical descent. The 5.6 kilometre downhill section averages 6.7 percent and will require both confidence and precision. Riders who are prepared to take risks could gain valuable seconds, but one mistake may prove costly.

The final nine kilometres are mainly flat, placing the emphasis back on raw power and aerodynamics. The last five kilometres run through the streets of Thonon les Bains, where several technical sections will make it difficult to maintain momentum, as you can see beneath.

The final 300 metres rise at an average gradient of four percent. On paper, that may not look significant. At the end of such an intense effort, however, it will be a painful final test.

Key points

• First intermediate point - after 4.5km, 21.5km to go
• Second intermediate point - after 9.5km, 16.5km to go (on the top of the Côte de Larringes, second category)
• Third intermediate point - after 18km, 8km to go

Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe enters the stage with the clear favourite in Remco Evenepoel. The course appears almost perfectly suited to the Belgian. The steady gradients on the opening climb should allow him to maintain an even effort, while his aerodynamic position and power will be major weapons during the flatter second half of the stage. On top of that, he'll be very confident after his stage 15 win.

Evenepoel is also an excellent descender when in form. If he reaches the top of the climb with energy in reserve and negotiates the technical sections cleanly, he will be extremely difficult to beat.

With Florian Lipowitz, the team has another rider who has consistently performed well in time trials and appears to be in excellent form. The varied parcours should suit his combination of climbing ability and power.

For Tadej Pogačar, the stage offers both an opportunity and a major challenge. The long opening climb works in his favour, and he has produced several outstanding time trials during Grand Tours. Yet the flatter final kilometres are likely to benefit Evenepoel.

Pogačar has been almost untouchable throughout the race. Stage 16 will represent Evenepoel’s best chance to hand the Slovenian his first significant defeat of this Tour.

One of the few other riders capable of challenging Evenepoel for the stage victory could be Filippo Ganna. The Netcompany-Ineos rider will need an exceptional performance, but the moderate gradients of the climb should remain within his limits. The fast and flatter second half of the course is particularly well suited to the Italian.

Ineos also has several candidates for a strong result. Thymen Arensman, Tobias Foss and Joshua Tarling could all compete for the places of honour.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG will also have more cards to play than only Pogačar. Isaac Del Toro should enjoy this type of course, although his performances immediately after rest days have previously raised questions. His response will be one of the most interesting storylines of the afternoon.

Brandon McNulty is another rider expected to perform well. An early start could allow him to provide Pogačar and Del Toro with valuable information about pacing, wind conditions, and the technical descent.

Lidl-Trek also brings a strong group of time trial specialists. Juan Ayuso has repeatedly shown that he excels on hilly courses against the clock. This stage presents a valuable opportunity for him to gain time in the general classification.

The same applies to Mattias Skjelmose, who can strengthen his position inside the top ten. Derek Gee West could combine a strong personal result with an important reconnaissance role for his team leaders. His sixth place in the final time trial of the 2024 Tour de France demonstrated how well he can perform on this type of terrain.

Mathias Vacek is another rider capable of delivering a strong result while also providing valuable data. His heavier build may count against him on the climb, but his considerable power and endurance should allow him to maintain a competitive pace.

After struggling with illness earlier in the Dauphiné, Luke Plapp appears to have rediscovered his best legs. Time trialling remains one of his greatest strengths, and the Jayco AlUla rider will have identified this stage as one of his main opportunities.

Finally, Paul Seixas should not be underestimated. Despite not having the typical build of a specialist, the Decathlon CMA CGM rider is an excellent time triallist. The uphill opening section should increase his chances of producing another impressive result.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Evenepoel

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Ganna, Pogacar

⭐⭐⭐  Ayuso, McNulty, Del Toro

⭐⭐  Lipowitz, Skjelmose, Plapp, Gee-West

⭐  Arensman, Foss, Tarling, Seixas, Vacek