Tour de France stage 3 preview: A third GC day or a first chance for the breakaway?

With almost 3,900 metres of elevation gain, a selective opening phase and a punchy uphill finish, this is no straightforward transition stage. The route is, for now, expected to be raced in full, but the wildfire in the Pyrénées Orientales has forced significant restrictions on the French section of the stage.

No spectators will be allowed along the final 40 kilometres, while the publicity caravan will also be absent once the race enters France. It may offer the GC riders a chance to step back, but only if a strong enough move is allowed to take control on a day that now carries an unusual and unsettling backdrop.

Key information:

• Start: 12:20 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 16:54 (CET)
• Stage type: medium mountain
• Stage length: 195.53km
• Elevation gain: 3868m

Follow stage 3 of the Tour de France live at Domestique with our live reporting.

When assessing the chances of a breakaway, the opening phase of the stage is crucial. At the Giro d’Italia, many breakaways formed on flat roads, which often made the battle for the move more unpredictable. In the Tour, the early kilometres have been far more selective, and stage 3 follows that pattern.

There is barely a flat metre in the first 29 kilometres. With the Côte de Sant Feliu de Codines coming early, the terrain should make it easier for the strongest breakaway specialists to create separation.

The following 78 kilometres offer ideal terrain for a large move to extend its advantage over the peloton.

(The short climbs shown around the 55km and 60km marks should be ignored, as they appear to be caused by tunnels)

From there, the riders still have 87 kilometres remaining, and almost all of it is either uphill or downhill.

First comes a 7.3km climb at an average gradient of 3.9%. Immediately after that uphill drag, the race enters a short but technical descent on narrow roads, with limited visibility through the corners. It is one of the places where positioning will matter.

The hardest climb of the day follows soon after. The Col de Toses begins gently, but the final 4km average 9%, making it a serious test before the race has even reached its final phase.

After a short plateau, another descent brings the riders towards a 10km valley and the next climb, the Col du Calvaire. On paper, its average gradient of 4.1% looks manageable, but at 15.1km in length, it will add another layer of fatigue.

A non technical descent then leads towards a short kicker of 2.7km at 3.5%, followed by a brief plateau and descent before the final climb to Les Angles.

The finish may not look especially intimidating on paper, but the sting comes late. The final 1.8km average 7.3%, and the roads become narrow and technical inside the last two kilometres. That should make it difficult to move up and could make even small gaps hard to close.

• Côte de Sant Feliu de Codines | 3rd category - 8.1km at 4.5% - 178.5km to go
• Intermediate sprint - 97.5km to go
• Col de Toses | 1st category - 10.4km at 6.1% - 67.9km to go
• Col du Calvaire | 3rd cateogry - 15.1km at 4.1% - 23.2km to go
• Final climb | 3rd category - 1.8km at 7.3% - 0km to go

Stage 3 sits somewhere between a hilly stage and a proper mountain test. It is hard enough to damage the peloton, but perhaps not hard enough to justify a full day of control from the GC teams.

That makes the breakaway the most likely scenario. The start is selective enough for a strong group to go clear, and once it does, the question becomes who will chase. UAE Team Emirates-XRG could control the stage for Tadej Pogačar, but doing so would require a heavy investment early in the race. Other teams may be reluctant to help, knowing that Pogačar would be the obvious favourite if the stage comes back together.

There is also the broader race situation to consider. Several strong riders have already lost time in the general classification, increasing the pool of dangerous names who may try to get up the road. 

It will be possible that Visma | Lease A Bike allows the breakaway to take the yellow jersey, reducing the pressure on their shoulders in the days ahead.

And once again, one has to consider the heat, which means riders have to control their efforts much more.

Alex Baudin of EF Education-EasyPost looks like one of the most interesting candidates for the stage if the breakaway is given room to contest the win. He already showed his quality at the Critérium du Dauphiné, where he produced a superb ride to win the opening stage and take the yellow jersey.

Baudin made a clear step forward in 2024 and has continued that progression in 2025 after joining EF from Decathlon. After a period of adjustment, he now appears to be riding at a higher level than ever. On terrain like this, he looks capable of taking a first Grand Tour stage win. Could he repeat his Dauphiné move?

Georg Steinhauser gives EF another compelling card to play, though his biggest opportunities may lie deeper into the race when the terrain becomes even more demanding. The German is built more like a diesel, a rider who tends to grow into a Grand Tour, and this finale may require the kind of sharp acceleration that does not naturally suit him.

Ben Healy is another name who could make this stage explode, but the Irishman does not yet appear to be operating at his very best. That makes it more likely that we will have to wait a little longer before seeing him launch one of his trademark attacks.

Richard Carapaz would be a major threat on a stage of this profile, but his freedom will depend entirely on how much room the peloton is willing to grant him. He remains too dangerous in the broader GC picture to be allowed a significant advantage without an immediate reaction.

Sergio Higuita of XDS Astana Team is another rider who naturally fits this terrain. A few years ago, he would have been one of the obvious names for a finish like this. His recent seasons have been less consistent, but there have been signs that he is moving closer to his old level again.

Harold Tejada will also definitely enjoy this stage out of the breakaway, although he may struggle to receive enough freedom from the GC teams. The finish does suit him perfectly.

If the stage is controlled and the general classification riders fight for the win, Tadej Pogačar immediately becomes the rider to beat. The final climb is made for his explosiveness, and UAE Team Emirates-XRG have the strength to place him well before the decisive ramps. 

Isaac Del Toro could prove vital in setting things up for him, but the Mexican carries enough punch of his own, as he showed on stage 2, to ensure he cannot be completely discounted either.

Magnus Cort of Uno-X Mobility has already announced that this will be his final year as a professional cyclist, and he has made it a memorable one by winning the Danish national title. A stage with long dragging climbs and an explosive finish looks made for him. One last major Tour de France moment would be a hugely popular result.

Among the GC contenders, Jonas Vingegaard of Team Visma | Lease a Bike should not be dismissed. He is more explosive than he is often given credit for, as he showed in Barcelona by staying close to the Del Toro and Pogačar.

Remco Evenepoel of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe is another rider who has worked hard to improve that part of his game in recent years. His performance in Barcelona suggested strong form, and if the GC group reaches the final climb together, he has the power to surprise.

Javier Romo of Movistar Team also looked strong on stage 2, showing the kind of form that makes him a clear contender here. This is a stage where he could target victory from the breakaway, and perhaps even the maillot jaune if the move is given enough room.

Movistar also have Pablo Castrillo, whose start with the team has not yet delivered the impact many expected, with bad luck playing its part in a difficult opening spell. Yet the qualities he displayed at the 2024 Vuelta have not disappeared. If he is beginning to find his rhythm, this is exactly the kind of stage where he could come alive.

Derek Gee of Lidl-Trek remains a difficult rider to assess. After finishing fifth at the Giro, backing that up with another strong Grand Tour is no small task. Still, he showed encouraging signs at the Andorra Classic, where a puncture disrupted his race, and again at the Canadian national championships. A Tour stage win still feels well within reach.

Valentin Paret-Peintre of Soudal Quick-Step looks particularly dangerous on this kind of terrain. He appeared to lose time deliberately on stage 2, perhaps with this stage in mind, and the profile seems tailor-made for him. With both climbing strength and explosiveness, he has the tools to win here.

Tom Pidcock of Pinarello-Q36.5 is another name who has to be included. Even with the major GC contenders in the race, he remains the kind of rider capable of lighting up a stage like this. The final climb suits him extremely well.

Other riders to watch include Marco Frigo of NSN Cycling Team, Mauro Schmid of Team Jayco AlUla, and Tobias Halland Johannessen of Uno-X Mobility.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Baudin

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Higuita, Pogačar

⭐⭐⭐  Cort, Vingegaard, Evenepoel

⭐⭐  Romo, Gee-West, V. Paret-Peintre, Pidcock

⭐  Frigo, Schmid, Del Toro, Tejada, T. Johannessen