Tour de France stage 4 preview: Will the breakaway finally get its chance?

If this stage came at the end of the second week, or deep into the third, the verdict would be simple. It would almost certainly be a day for the breakaway. On stage 4, however, the picture is more complicated.

The Tour is still young, the general classification is still tightly packed, and several teams may believe they have a rider capable of finishing the job. Yet the terrain is demanding, the route is difficult to control, and plenty of strong riders have already lost enough time to be given some freedom.

Key information:

• Start: 13:25 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:23-17:47 (CET)
• Stage type: Hilly
• Stage length: 182.28km
• Elevation gain: 2711m

Follow stage 4 live at Domestique with our live reporting.

The stage begins with rolling terrain, although the opening 31 kilometres are largely flat. From there, the road becomes more irregular, with a sequence of short, shallow climbs that should provide an ideal launchpad for the day’s breakaway.

The early climbing section features:

Col de Villerouge: 8.7km at 2.9%
Col de Bedos: 3.4km at 4.4%
Col des Fourches: 1.9km at 5.0%
Col de Paradis: 6.5km at 4.0%

The descents in this section are fairly technical, although the gradients are not overly severe. That should make them manageable, but still demanding enough to keep the peloton stretched and alert.

After this hilly opening phase, the riders face a five kilometre descent followed by a 23 kilometre valley road before reaching the Col de Coudons.

This is where the stage becomes more serious. The Col de Coudons measures 10.9 kilometres at 5.4%, making it the first major obstacle of the day. It is followed by a long plateau of around 20 kilometres, a section that could allow a strong breakaway to increase the pressure on the chasing peloton.

After a seven kilometre descent and a seven kilometre false flat through the valley, the riders arrive at the final climb of the day, the Col de Montségur.

At 6.8 kilometres with an average gradient of 6.4%, it is the hardest climb on the route. The final 1.6 kilometres rise at 8.5%, making it a natural point for attacks, both from the breakaway and from any reduced peloton behind.

From the summit, 35.2 kilometres remain. An 11 kilometre descent is followed by 25 kilometres of rolling terrain towards the finish in Foix. This is where the stage could turn into a tactical pursuit, with the breakaway trying to hold on and the peloton deciding whether the chase is still worth the effort.

Should a reduced group contest the stage, the final kilometre also requires attention. The last corner comes with 350 metres to go, making positioning crucial before the sprint opens.

• Col de Bedos | 4th category | 3.4km at 4.4% | 133.7km to go
• Col du Paradis | 3rd category | 6.5km at 4.0% | 117km to go
• Intermediate sprint | 88.5km to go
• Col de Coudons | 2nd category | 10.9km at 5.4% | 77km to go
• Col de Montségur | 2nd category | 6.8km at 6.4% | 35.2km to go

The early timing of this stage makes it difficult to predict. Teams with fast puncheurs may still be tempted to control the race, but the route does not make that an easy task.

The succession of climbs should produce a strong breakaway, and once a capable group goes clear, the chase could quickly become costly. The Col de Coudons and the plateau that follows look especially important. If the break still has a solid advantage there, the peloton may struggle to bring the situation back under control.

The heat adds another layer, making a full day of chasing on this terrain a painful and unappealing prospect. For many teams, having a rider in the move could be the safer tactical option.

For UAE Team Emirates-XRG, there is little urgency to force the issue. With two stage wins already and the yellow jersey on Tadej Pogačar’s shoulders, they have every reason to let the breakaway take its chance.

Movistar were represented in yesterday’s breakaway by Raúl García Pierna and Nelson Oliveira, with García Pierna in particular leaving a strong impression. After the energy both riders spent on stage 3, Javier Romo and Pablo Castrillo look like the team’s most logical options for this stage, especially as both were also active in trying to make the break yesterday.

Romo impressed on stage 2, while Castrillo showed his quality in the TTT. Both have the engine to go long and could be dangerous if they reach the finale with a small group or manage to attack clear before the finish.

Team Jayco AlUla were also highly active on stage 3. Mauro Schmid and Luke Plapp both made the break, but were distanced on the Collada de Toses. This stage may suit Schmid better, while Plapp still appears to be searching for his best level after illness in the Dauphiné.

Jayco’s strongest card, however, could be Michael Matthews. The Australian is best known for his fast finish and punchy acceleration, but when in form he is also capable of surviving a demanding climb. This stage looks like a genuine opportunity for him.

Another option is Ben O’Connor. After targeting the general classification at the Giro and finishing 16th, he comes to the Tour with stage wins as his main objective. This is the type of profile that could suit him well.

Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe’s priority will be to protect Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz, but Maxim Van Gils should have freedom to chase stages. He showed strong form in the Dauphiné and this parcours looks well suited to him. A Tour stage win would also be a significant boost after the heavy crash that disrupted the start of his season.

For Soudal Quick-Step, Valentin Paret-Peintre appears to be the best option. He tried to make the break on stage 3 but missed out, despite showing good legs. He may have preferred an even tougher profile, but this route still gives him a real chance.

Quinn Simmons was another rider who was highly active in the battle to join the breakaway on stage 3, only to miss the move. The Lidl-Trek all rounder gets another opportunity here on terrain that should suit his aggressive style.

Groupama-FDJ United will also be looking to place riders in the break. Romain Grégoire looks like their strongest card after showing excellent form in Barcelona, although he appeared to struggle with the heat yesterday. That could be a factor again.

For EF Education-EasyPost, Sean Quinn looks like the strongest option. Teammate Alex Baudin underlined his form with an excellent ride on stage 3, but that effort may still be in his legs here. Quinn, meanwhile, has the climbing ability to survive a demanding day and the turn of speed to finish it off from a reduced group. If the race opens up, this could be a real opportunity for him.

For Netcompany-Ineos, this Tour de France appears to be built around stage hunting. Egan Bernal was arguably one of the most active riders in the peloton on stage 3, but a mechanical issue left him out of the decisive move. He will be motivated to try again.

For NSN, Marco Frigo is riding his first Tour de France. He has already proved in both the Giro and the Vuelta that he can be a serious contender from breakaways, although a Grand Tour stage win has so far escaped him. Could he finally make it happen in La Grande Boucle?

Other riders to watch include Ramses Debruyne of Alpecin-Premier Tech, Magnus Cort of Uno-X Mobility and Ion Izagirre of Cofidis.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Romo

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Matthews, Van Gils

⭐⭐⭐  Castrillo, Paret-Peintre, Simmons

⭐⭐  Grégoire, Bernal, Frigo, Schmid

⭐  Debruyne, Quinn, Cort, O'Connor, Izagirre