5 dark horses for a stage win at the 2026 Tour de France
The 2026 Tour de France will be dominated by the headline names, Pogacar, Vingegaard, Seixas in the GC, Merlier, Girmay and Philipsen in the sprints, but the three weeks of the race have always made space for breakaway and outsider wins. Here are five riders flying under the radar who could spring a stage win in July.
Rick Pluimers (Tudor)
Rick Pluimers has developed into one of Tudor’s most consistent riders for hilly one day races and selective finishes.
His breakthrough came during the autumn of 2024, when he finished fourth on the Geraardsbergen stage of the Renewi Tour, fifth at the Grand Prix de Wallonie and second at the Super 8 Classic. He followed that run by taking his first professional victory at the 2025 Muscat Classic, before placing fifth at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne and sixth at the Bretagne Classic.
The Dutchman has carried that form into 2026, opening his season with third at the Classic Var and later finishing fourth at the Circuit Franco Belge.
This will be his first Tour de France. Tudor’s team is likely to be shaped around Julian Alaphilippe, Stefan Küng and Michael Storer, which could leave Pluimers with opportunities on rolling stages that are too difficult for the pure sprinters.
He is unlikely to be given freedom every day, but his finishing speed and ability to survive a hard race make him a credible candidate when a reduced group reaches the final kilometres.
Mauro Schmid (Jayco AlUla)
The 26-year-old Swiss rider took the overall at the Settimana Internazionale Coppi e Bartali in March, finished second at La Flèche Wallonne in April, and was second at the Tour Down Under in January. He sits inside the top fifteen of the UCI World Ranking.
He finished second on stage 11 of the 2025 Tour de France to Jonas Abrahamsen after a long breakaway. The Swiss rider can climb the medium mountains and finish fast from a reduced group, both useful traits on the days when the GC teams might let the breakaway go.
Jayco AlUla's 2026 Tour is all in on stage hunting alongside Ben O'Connor, Luke Plapp and Michael Matthews, with no GC ambitions to limit Schmid's freedom. Schmid is also moving to Pinarello-Q36.5 in 2027, according to Daniel Benson, meaning this could be his last Tour in the colours of the Australian team.
Emiel Verstrynge (Alpecin-Premier Tech)
Emiel Verstrynge’s first Tour de France was largely spent working for others.
The Belgian made his debut in 2025 after increasingly shifting his focus from cyclocross to road racing. At Alpecin-Premier Tech, his main responsibility was to support Jasper Philipsen and Mathieu van der Poel.
That is likely to remain his primary role in 2026. Even so, Alpecin has shown a willingness to give its supporting riders opportunities when the race situation allows it.
Verstrynge is viewed inside the team as one of its next generation of Classics riders, alongside Tibor Del Grosso. His contract was extended through 2028, an indication of the team’s confidence in his long term development.
A Tour stage win would still represent a major step, but his technical ability, resilience and acceleration on short climbs give him the right profile for a chaotic transitional stage. Much will depend on whether he is allowed to leave the team’s sprint and Classics leaders behind and pursue his own result.
Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X Mobility)
The 26-year-old Norwegian won Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in 2025, took two stage wins and the overall at the Lidl Deutschland Tour the same season, and has the Baloise Belgium Tour overall (2024) and Tour Poitou-Charentes (2024, 2023) on his palmarès. He is also a two-time Norwegian time trial champion.
Uno-X have built their 2026 Tour squad around Tobias Halland Johannessen's GC challenge. Sports director Gabriel Rasch has said the team will do what they can in the lead-out but that the Norwegian is not the kind of rider who needs much help.
Expect Søren Wærenskjold to shine in the second week.
Einer Rubio (Movistar)
Einer Rubio is targeting all three Grand Tours in 2026, with the Tour de France as the middle leg.
The 28-year-old Colombian climber won stage 13 of the 2023 Giro d'Italia at Crans-Montana and has built a steady record at Movistar with seventh overall at the 2024 Giro, eighth overall at the 2025 Giro, and 23rd at the 2026 Giro.
Rubio's role at the Tour will be as Cian Uijtdebroeks's climbing companion, but he has been given freedom to target mountain stages where the GC teams allow the breakaway space.
The 2026 Tour features eight mountain stages and the double Alpe d'Huez stage in the final week, giving Rubio plenty of opportunity.
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