Vuelta a España stage 12 preview - High altitude finish to shake up the GC?

Enric Mas made a statement on stage 9, climbing to victory on the Alto de Aitana in the red jersey, and extending his lead in what has become a wide-open Vuelta a España. 

However, with over a minute lead on Primož Roglič in second, Mas will not want this to become a wide-open race, and will look to capitalise on his stellar form whenever the road rises. 

Stage 12 presents another major mountain stage for the GC contenders to get their teeth stuck into as the race reaches Andalusia. 

With five categorised climbs on the menu, 4460m of elevation gain and a high altitude summit finish at Calar Alto, this is set to be an important stage in the fight for the red jersey.

Key information:

• Start time: 13:07 (CET)
• Estimated finish time: 17:16 (CET)
• Stage type: Mountain
• Stage length: 166.5km
• Elevation gain: 4,460m

Follow stage 12 live at Domestique with our live reporting.

The Vuelta reaches Andalusia with a stage that will certainly test the mettle of the riders. After setting off from Vera, the route heads quickly to the first of five categorised climbs of the day, the category three Alto del Cabecico (8.4km at 3.3%), with each test increasing in difficulty. 

This is followed up by the fellow category three Alto de Cóbdar (4.9km at 4.5) before the challenges increase with the category 2 Collado Garcia (18.8km at 2.4%). 

With plenty of climbing already in the legs, the intermediate sprint at Velefique with 42.9km to go marks a significant moment in the race, where the climbing significantly intensifies with a duo of category one ascents, with the Alto de Velefique (13.1km at 7.2%) first up.

The riders will crest the climb with 31.2km before descending their way towards the foot of the summit finish, Calar Alto. At 17km in length with an average gradient of 5.6%, this isn’t the most consistently savage climb, with some easier sections masking the higher average gradient. 

However, more significantly, this climb sits at an altitude of over 2,100m of elevation gain, and was the setting where Miguel Ángel López was victorious in its last appearance back in 2017.

• Alto Del Cabecico | 3rd category | 8.4km at 3.3% | 150.6km to go
• Alto de Cóbdar | 3rd category | 4.9km at 4.5% | 109.1km to go
• Collado Garcia | 2nd category |18.8km at 2.4% | 80.2km to go
• Velefique  | Intermediate sprint | 42.9km to go
• Alto de Velefique | 1st category | 13.1km at 7.2% | 31.2km to go
• Calar Alto | 1st category | 17km at 5.6% | Summit finish

Velefique is steep enough to break the race. Calar Alto probably is not. Seventeen kilometres at under 6 per cent makes it more of a tempo climb, the kind where a strong team can control attacks and a rider with a diesel engine may have the edge over someone relying on explosiveness. 

Anyone looking to create real separation may therefore have to make their move on Velefique, or on the descent that follows, because the final climb might not offer the gradient to do it later.

That dilemma is most pressing for the riders chasing Enric Mas (Movistar). He starts the day in red after inheriting the jersey following Pogačar's crash, then removed any doubt about his form by winning on Aitana. Movistar now have both the jersey and the responsibility that comes with it. Thursday is the first mountain stage on which that burden is entirely theirs.

Mas has finished second at the Vuelta three times and third once. He has never won it.

Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) sits second overall and looks the most obvious rider to capitalise. He has won the Vuelta four times and owns a record on this kind of finish that nobody else in the race can match. The question is whether his form is there yet, although the signs from inside his own team are encouraging.

Finn Fisher-Black, who attended the training camp where Roglič was rebuilding after being hit by a car in late July, said this week on the Domestique Hotseat podcast that the Slovenian could barely ride a bike only a few weeks ago. In Fisher-Black's view, Roglič has effectively been training through the opening ten days of the Vuelta and should be at his best in the final week.

Calar Alto does not come in the final week, but it is the first climb long enough to offer a meaningful indication of whether that progression is real.

Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM) is third overall and has arguably been the most aggressive of the main contenders. He forced the pace on Valdelinares and lost only six seconds when Pogačar countered, then attacked repeatedly on Aitana before finishing fourth.

Decathlon CMA CGM have tried to shape the race throughout, driving the front on the Port d'Envalira, into Castelló and again on Sunday. Gregor Mühlberger admitted after Aitana that he had gone too early.

A team that keeps making the race hard without converting that work into a result needs a day like this. Gall finished second to Vingegaard at this year's Giro and won the Vuelta a Burgos in August, giving him arguably the strongest recent form of anyone in the top three.

Behind them, Oscar Onley (Netcompany-Ineos) sits fourth overall after finishing second on Aitana and has made it through the opening week without a genuine GC crisis. He missed the Tour after dislocating his shoulder and undergoing surgery, returned with second place at Burgos, and has climbed as well as almost anyone since the Vuelta began.

Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) is in a different position. He lost 1:22 on Valdelinares and was dropped inside the final kilometre on Aitana, leaving him closer to breakaway territory than the podium battle. That could make him more dangerous rather than less. The reigning Tour mountains champion won two stages in France from long range moves and has the pedigree to turn a difficult GC situation into an opportunity.

Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike) lost close to two minutes on Aitana after crashing at high speed on stage 8, dropping from fourth to seventh overall. He won this race in 2023 and Visma have no other GC card to play. A long, relatively shallow climb at altitude should suit him better than much of what the race has offered so far.

Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), sixth overall, also remains firmly in the picture after finishing sixth at the Tour.

If the GC teams hesitate, however, the breakaway has a genuine chance. Movistar showed on stage 10 that they would rather allow a move to build a substantial advantage than spend riders unnecessarily.

With a category one climb followed by a summit finish, Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious) has every reason to be up the road. He carries the mountains jersey and there are maximum points available on both major climbs.

Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) has already won Vuelta summit finishes from breakaways and UAE have nothing to defend in the general classification. Pavel Sivakov (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) was the final rider caught from the break on Aitana. Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step) has made the move on three separate days.

Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Astana) completes the list of obvious candidates. They are exactly the kind of climbers who go looking for a stage with this profile.